Snowlover11 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 well I got work from midnight to 8am so, atleast I'll see flakes falling when I get out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 well I got work from midnight to 8am so, atleast I'll see flakes falling when I get out I've gotta drive a plow, lets see how long I'll be out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks like Upton changed everyone to a Winter Weather Advisory. Smart move. The probability of reaching 6"+ anywhere is low, so no need to issue a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 The last minute surge of WAA may be enough to change the south shore over to sleet or freezing rain...but it will come at the very end of the precipitation. I think it could reach my area as well. But this is much more of a concern over Central NJ and even the NJ shoreline. I could see them getting really reduced amounts because of the initial boundary layer winds and then the mid level warming. These type of events almost never work out for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks like Upton changed everyone to a Winter Weather Advisory. snow is snow. edit, looks like they have sleet mixing in a lot of zones now, they are favoring a warmer solution. oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The last minute surge of WAA may be enough to change the south shore over to sleet or freezing rain...but it will come at the very end of the precipitation. I think it could reach my area as well. But this is much more of a concern over Central NJ and even the NJ shoreline. I could see them getting really reduced amounts because of the initial boundary layer winds and then the mid level warming. These type of events almost never work out for them. So you think it wont make it past the south shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 snow is snow. edit, looks like they have sleet mixing in a lot of zones now, they are favoring a warmer solution. oh well. Yes but, acculumation is the same and they dropped the forecasted high to 31 from 35, for me anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not really, they say it may mix with sleet towards the end and the totals have gone up. snow is snow. edit, looks like they have sleet mixing in a lot of zones now, they are favoring a warmer solution. oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The last minute surge of WAA may be enough to change the south shore over to sleet or freezing rain...but it will come at the very end of the precipitation. I think it could reach my area as well. But this is much more of a concern over Central NJ and even the NJ shoreline. I could see them getting really reduced amounts because of the initial boundary layer winds and then the mid level warming. These type of events almost never work out for them. It seems like where I am located is often where the battle line sets up. Sometimes I'll win and stay snow, other times 5 miles NW of me winds up getting a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 snow is snow. edit, looks like they have sleet mixing in a lot of zones now, they are favoring a warmer solution. oh well. No they arent. Most models show sleet at the very end. Upton still going with the original 3"-6" for NYC area. No models are really showing anyone over 6" of snow. Chances of that are isolated and low. Issuing WWA is the right move for the entire area, including north and west. Edit: They raised accumulation to 4"-6" areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Once again, not warmer, surface is 4 degrees colder than forecast previously, and much colder at night as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The last minute surge of WAA may be enough to change the south shore over to sleet or freezing rain...but it will come at the very end of the precipitation. I think it could reach my area as well. But this is much more of a concern over Central NJ and even the NJ shoreline. I could see them getting really reduced amounts because of the initial boundary layer winds and then the mid level warming. These type of events almost never work out for them. I strongly agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Any normal winter, 4-6" is a big snow event. We have been so spoiled. As a kid I remember how excited I used to get about 3-6 inchers. Tonight and tomorrow morning should be a lot of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 WAA and precip starting to work towards SW PA. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Forecast looks on track. Moderate snowfall likely north of CNJ. Can't rule out mixing with sleet near the coast. I like the WWA but I understand why watches were originally posted and then taken down. This could be a borderline high end advisory and any changes to this afternoon's guidance could have warranted a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Any normal winter, 4-6" is a big snow event. We have been so spoiled. As a kid I remember how excited I used to get about 3-6 inchers. Tonight and tomorrow morning should be a lot of fun. Given the past two seasons, where 4-6" is a minot event, and last year we were talking about 1 to 2 feet events, but I would gladly take 3-5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 No they arent. Most models show sleet at the very end. Upton still going with the original 3"-6" for NYC area. No models are really showing anyone over 6" of snow. Chances of that are isolated and low. Issuing WWA is the right move for the entire area, including north and west. Edit: They raised accumulation to 4"-6" areawide. Both Upton and Mt. Holly have gone with WWAdvisories only for up to 6", but with the assumption being that 6" won't be attained, generally, as would be needed to post the warnings. Looks like basically all snow north of about I-78 and for most of NYC metro, with sleet only mixing in south of there, near the end, as temps warm a bit. I'm guessing there is just not enough QPF for warnings, as there looks to be enough cold air in place in most areas. I'll still be ecstatic with 3-5" IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Any normal winter, 4-6" is a big snow event. We have been so spoiled. As a kid I remember how excited I used to get about 3-6 inchers. Tonight and tomorrow morning should be a lot of fun. i agree. i remember growing up thinking that a 4 inch event was awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The last minute surge of WAA may be enough to change the south shore over to sleet or freezing rain...but it will come at the very end of the precipitation. I think it could reach my area as well. But this is much more of a concern over Central NJ and even the NJ shoreline. I could see them getting really reduced amounts because of the initial boundary layer winds and then the mid level warming. These type of events almost never work out for them. Yup, we always change over to plain rain in all SWFE's. However, still should get about 2" ahead of the H85 0c torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 i agree. i remember growing up thinking that a 4 inch event was awesome yep..in the 70's and 80's a 2-4 inch storm was awesome..those snowfalls were common until this last decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yup, we always change over to plain rain in all SWFE's. However, still should get about 2" ahead of the H85 0c torch. We'll keep each other posted, my Rt 9 brother. 5 miles will make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I have to say, taking the latest guidance into account, I am shocked that they did not go with warnings for at least part of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Currently in Chicago: METAR KMDW 202051Z 00000KT 1/4SM R31C/2000V2800FT +SN FZFG VV007 M09/M11 A3013 RMK AO2 SLP225 SNINCR 1/2 P0007 60015 T10891106 53003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 http://www.opentopia.com/webcam/3276?viewmode=livevideo Indiana University of Pennsyvania webcam, will help when precip hits west central PA. (the do have awesome parties as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I have to say, taking the latest guidance into account, I am shocked that they did not go with warnings for at least part of the area. Most NWS offices will not go with warnings in borderline situations like this. I agree that Orange county and some other ones in inland NJ likely will see warning amounts but there are few too many questions to be confident enough to go with a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18z rgem still cold and all snow. Here is hour 24, which is the very end of the event. Waiting for precip amounts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wet run. I would guess 10-14mm on the 18z rgem: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 If the 00z RGEM holds on the rain snow line, go with it. Its really lethal right before events. It gets a bad rep because it can be quite variable outside of say 24 hours, but inside that, its really really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Most NWS offices will not go with warnings in borderline situations like this. I agree that Orange county and some other ones in inland NJ likely will see warning amounts but there are few too many questions to be confident enough to go with a warning. I don't know, it seems pretty likely that inland areas will get at least 6". I never understood the point of ugrading to a warning either once the event has already begun. The guidance has been pretty consistent today, and that's why I'm so suprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 21Z Observations, MSLP, streamlines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.