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January 20-21 2012 Snowstorm OBS & Disco


earthlight

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Harrison NJ (Hudson County)

Observation taken at 8:00 AM EST

2.6 Inches of Snow

Temperature: : 21F Degrees.

Currently Weather : Snow

Observation taken By;

Tony Mondaro

NWS Cooperative Observer

Station HSNN4

Harrison, NJ

www.harrisonweather.com

PS.... Everyone on this board does a wonderful job. Will try to update !!

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The dry slot may be the cause of the farther north PL/FZRA line than some thought, thats the one aspect of dry slots people tend to overlook, they are somewhat of a problem in borderline events because they can allow warming in the atmosphere to advance a bit beyond expectations. It sort of killed the Oct 2011 event here by allowing the BL to modify.

Yeah, it looks like that is going to contribute to spots verifying closer to the lower end of the forecast ranges.

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The dry slot may be the cause of the farther north PL/FZRA line than some thought, thats the one aspect of dry slots people tend to overlook, they are somewhat of a problem in borderline events because they can allow warming in the atmosphere to advance a bit beyond expectations. It sort of killed the Oct 2011 event here by allowing the BL to modify.

no, the mid level dry slot DID kill the Oct 2011 event

however, anyone to the north of that is going to rip.

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I think its saturated with respect to ice given how parrallel the dewpoint is to the temp curve.

surprised that doesnt show its fully saturated between -10 and -20 given how well they are doing down there. I wonder if the snow growth is lower where its saturated around 700mb

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I just went outside and there are many rimed dendrites falling now. Also, i did notice some small graupel so we may be seeing a mixture of snow in the good growth region and and some of the snow getting rimed with an increase in supercooled water below it.

good point. The Bergeron process is likely fine with that sounding.

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Many of us said this would be coming to an end by 1 or so. Im not sure why everyone is nervous about this back edge. Just enjoy what is falling.

Seriously...this honestly seems like one of the more predictable winter storms we will ever see in this region. There will be nuances with any storm, but so far this has been playing out almost entirely as everyone expected.

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