TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks like the nyc weenies are gonna bullseye at least in terms of lift on this run. Best VV's are over all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Heaviest part of storm at hour 18, or 7am tomorrow morning: corresponding to the best atmosphereric conditions but i think 21 will look good too when the coastal gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 And by hour 21, or 10am tomorrow morning, most of the precip is over: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Bill Korbel from News 12 LI summed it up well once when he said the public will never notice when you forecast 2 inches of rain and you get a half inch, they'll always however notice when you forecast 2-4 inches of snow and get 7 or 8 or 10, thats where the public's skepticism on snow forecasts comes from is that a small margin for error and it becomes noticeable to them way easier. Sad but true, and probably the major reason why most mets have backed off on early predictions. Even when Boxing Day seemed imminent, the NWS forecast was generally conservative and was increased only after precip had already begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Beautiful run someone would see thundersnow out of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18z NAM is notorious for putting out big :weenie: solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Heaviest part of storm at hour 18, or 7am tomorrow morning: quite a bit more impressive looking than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 And by hour 21, or 10am tomorrow morning, most of the precip is over: that still mod snow, its about to end, but it a good radar shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Still surges the H85 0c line to around Sandy Hook NJ at 15z Saturday. Does not reach the 5 boros or suburbs but it is mighty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 And by hour 21, or 10am tomorrow morning, most of the precip is over: 18z is 1pm tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18z NAM is notorious for putting out big :weenie: solutions if you have been followig along, the euro came in wetter and this run looks similar to it. Hi-Res models agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18z NAM is notorious for putting out big :weenie: solutions QPF on this run is only slightly above the model consensus of around 0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18z NAM is notorious for putting out big :weenie: solutions Yup, I always warn everyone of that prior to each snow event. The 12/4/02 18Z run of the then ETA I think (maybe it was the NAM by then, can't remember) put out 10-15 inches, we saw 5-8 in the end which is pretty much what was forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18z NAM is notorious for putting out big :weenie: solutions This isnt it. It matches all other guidance perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Still surges the H85 0c line to around Sandy Hook NJ at 15z Saturday. Does not reach the 5 boros or suburbs but it is mighty close. That's a great improvement over the last couple of runs. Would likely lock in all snow or some isolated sleet pellets for everyone north of there. If it's coming down heavy enough, it might even be able to overcome a small layer around or just over 0c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18z is 1pm tomorrow afternoon. that's a 15z prog, so 1pm minus three is 10am. He is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yup, I always warn everyone of that prior to each snow event. The 12/4/02 18Z run of the then ETA I think (maybe it was the NAM by then, can't remember) put out 10-15 inches, we saw 5-8 in the end which is pretty much what was forecast. the 12z run showed 10-15" as well... i remember being excited about it in HS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 if you have been followig along, the euro came in wetter and this run looks similar to it. Hi-Res models agree. Canadian, GFS, and Euro all have around 0.5" or slightly above for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yup, I always warn everyone of that prior to each snow event. The 12/4/02 18Z run of the then ETA I think (maybe it was the NAM by then, can't remember) put out 10-15 inches, we saw 5-8 in the end which is pretty much what was forecast. this doesn't produce anything we aren't seeing on other models, so i disagree with this assessment that is an 18z burp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm the last guy to criticize the NWS, but I have to wonder why OKX still has a winter storm watch up for many counties. It is terrible looking at the current WWA map and seeing advisories and watches on bordering counties in the same zone. Extremely confusing for the public, especially. I'll take a stab at defending it: The 12z GFS had .5-.6 liquid equivalent for most of NNJ and SENY, <.5 for Fairfield County, and .3-.4 further east toward ECT, RI, and Ma. To the north into Dutchess and Ulster QPF is less and warning criteria is higher. To the south, mixing issues arise. So just considering the GFS and assuming 15:1 ratios, the counties currently under a winter storm watch have a moderately high probability of exceeding 6" of snow, whereas all of the surrounding counties have a slightly lesser chance of exceeding warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM timeframe is 2am through 1pm. After 1pm or past hour 24, only .01" of precip falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM timeframe is 2am through 1pm. After 1pm or past hour 24, only .01" of precip falls. Yeah in mid level or surface warming situations like this it can be tough to differentiate between the previous 6 hour precip and the current valid time 850mb or surface temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The general public really only concerns themselves with forecasted snow totals. Watches/Warnings and Advisories are really only for local municipalities and state goverment offices. For example, a school district is more likely to cancel school if a warning is issued as opposed to an advisory. I doubt most school districts would know the difference. Hell I don't know the difference half the time. The criteria changes for different areas by event duration it's just a mess. Not to mention no one knows what an advisory or watch or warning means in the public. I think the nws should do away with a lot of those products and focus on more specific impact related products. They've gotten better with impact based statements and I think they should just ditch a lot of the warnings/watches/ advisories for non life threatening situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Back guys. Good to see no north trend. My client wanted 200k, and the government wanted to pay out 30k, so the whole day mediation was a bust, but i dont care because ill be seeing my 3-5 tomorrow. Glad to see the NAM brought the 850 line SOUTH of where it was, so mid-island north looks goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 After 15z it still surges the 850 zero line north to HPN-BDR. At least it's the warmest model by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 After 15z it still surges the 850 zero line north to HPN-BDR. At least it's the warmest model by far. but it has little impact on accumulating snow fall. Honesty, given what the hi-res models including rgem show and how the euro doesnt do this, i think its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 but it has little impact on accumulating snow fall. Honesty, given what the hi-res models including rgem show and how the euro doesnt do this, i think its wrong. I agree-even the extended RUC seems to keep it cool here, and that's normally the model that would show warming the most. I'm confident in a good 3-6" event for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I agree-even the extended RUC seems to keep it cool here, and that's normally the model that would show warming the most. I'm confident in a good 3-6" event for most. Point and click for mid-island shows 3-6. Question is, will i wake up early to watch it snow? Saturday morning. ugh,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 start time around 3-4am? given how this winter has went im going to do whatever it takes to witness the whole event. it will also be awesome to see moderate snow during the day...been a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It doesn't matter if it surges at that hour. Precip Is basically over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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