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January 20-21 2012 Snowstorm OBS & Disco


earthlight

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nice little tidbit from upton:

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR WHOLE AREA. MODELS HAVE GOOD

CONSENSUS OF AT 0.3 TO 0.5 LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS THE AREA.

INTERIOR AREAS CONSIDERING 15 TO 1 LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS MAKES

FOR A WIDE AREA OF BETWEEN 5 AND ISOLATED AREAS OF 6 INCHES OF

SNOW. LOWER AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 4 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ELSEWHERE.

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nice little tidbit from upton:

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR WHOLE AREA. MODELS HAVE GOOD

CONSENSUS OF AT 0.3 TO 0.5 LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS THE AREA.

INTERIOR AREAS CONSIDERING 15 TO 1 LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS MAKES

FOR A WIDE AREA OF BETWEEN 5 AND ISOLATED AREAS OF 6 INCHES OF

SNOW. LOWER AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 4 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ELSEWHERE.

Dew points are still awfully low....maybe it eats away at some front end snow? Idk

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Keep an eye on the Central PA thread to get an idea of the conditions there and an idea of how far north the warm punch is making it. Looks by radar like sleet could be mixing in near Johnstown and just south of Altoona, so the warm air might be making inroads. My alma mater (Penn State) is getting slammed. :D

I think it's probably a 75% chance there's a period of sleet or freezing rain on the LI south shore, for at least an hour or two that leaves enough for at least a glaze. NYC and northern LI could have some sleet mixing in at the very end.

Hopefully the snow arrives like a battering ram here and nails us all until any question of mixing enters the picture after 10am. Really getting its act together, almost at the doorstep.

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Keep an eye on the Central PA thread to get an idea of the conditions there and an idea of how far north the warm punch is making it. Looks by radar like sleet could be mixing in near Johnstown and just south of Altoona, so the warm air might be making inroads. My alma mater (Penn State) is getting slammed. :D

I think it's probably a 75% chance there's a period of sleet or freezing rain on the LI south shore, for at least an hour or two that leaves enough for at least a glaze. NYC and northern LI could have some sleet mixing in at the very end.

Man, that's about your 100th post about a "changeover in Long Beach"....we get it...if it happens, it happens...life goes on...I don't mean to be a jerk...I just am...but give it a breather....

BTW, it is fairly common for warm air to sneak up as far north as Pittsburgh...or even north of NYC's latitude...like Cleveland...with eastbound mid latitude cyclones....but with a strong anticyclone locked over New England...a good bit of the precip will still tend to fall as snow in the NYC area in those situations as the warm air has a hard time making it east of the mountains....

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Anyone staying up all night and morning? lol

I never sleep more than a couple of hours when it's snowing. I'll absolutely stay up until the snow starts accumulating, then I'll probably sleep for about 2 hours, then check the snow and then alternate naps and snow checks, i.e., quick walks outside to measure and drink it all in, usually including a few sliding runs down my sloped driveway and some snowball throwing and snowflake catching on my tongue. If it's going to be a major storm, I also usually shovel every 2-3 hours. It's what I do, lol.

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Keep an eye on the Central PA thread to get an idea of the conditions there and an idea of how far north the warm punch is making it. Looks by radar like sleet could be mixing in near Johnstown and just south of Altoona, so the warm air might be making inroads. My alma mater (Penn State) is getting slammed. :D

I think it's probably a 75% chance there's a period of sleet or freezing rain on the LI south shore, for at least an hour or two that leaves enough for at least a glaze. NYC and northern LI could have some sleet mixing in at the very end.

Hopefully the snow arrives like a battering ram here and nails us all until any question of mixing enters the picture after 10am. Really getting its act together, almost at the doorstep.

I've been checking other subforums to see how they're making out with this event. Warm air seems to have made it a bit north of where most mets thought it would go, and earlier too. Altoona was thought to be north of any changeover (or at worst have a brief one) but they could switch over, and Johnstown does seem to be getting sleet. IDK the specifics of what is progged for your area but latitude will help compared to places like Pit and JST. Definitely going to be a good event here right in the middle of PA, 4-6" easily with maybe more. Good luck tonight guys.

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The usually very snowy WRF clown map is something of a vague disappointment this morning....showing almost no one cracking the 4" barrier...

post-747-0-76729100-1327129813.gif

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