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January 20-21 2012 Snowstorm OBS & Disco


earthlight

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Wow there may be thunderstorms back where my family lives in NC tomorrow. How about that! OT sorry!

SPC WRF is out...looks exactly like the NAM. Precip has some trouble initially but then recovers. People complaining about this, with the way the winter has gone so far, should leave the forum. Total QPF looks just shy of or around 0.5".

http://www.emc.ncep....animate_1h.html

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If all of this, already getting close to central PA/SNJ at 12 AM, somehow doesn't get to NYC and still surrounds us by the early morning hours, I'll be amazed... some dry slots are possible but I'm wondering if there's actually going to be a dry slot as big and long lasting as some of these models are showing.

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Those are not dry slots. A dry slot is a drying of a column of air in the atmosphere that extends great depths in length, IE within a well developed cyclone. These are just areas the model thinks has less dBZ. The models will ALWAYS struggle with things like this. Again, the snow will start light and pick up by sunrise.

If all of this, already getting close to central PA/SNJ at 12 AM, somehow doesn't get to NYC and still surrounds us by the early morning hours, I'll be amazed... some dry slots are possible but I'm wondering if there's actually going to be a dry slot as big and long lasting as some of these models are showing.

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its hard not to get excited for people in central and northern nj, as well as nyc. Precip extends all the way back to Ohio and there's already a nice band moving in from the south. The trajectory of everything looks excellent and its still very very cold. Im pretty pumped

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Predictions for 1/21/2012 event:

Central Park: 5.1"

LaGuardia: 5.2"

Kennedy: 4.3"

Newark: 5.1"

Islip: 4.9"

Bridgeport: 5.7"

Upton: 6.1"

Should be winding down in NYC around 2:00 PM in the afternoon...the high # for OKX is largely based on them benefitting from a stiif NE wind off the Sound...they seem to do rather well in those situations...but every storm is different so time will tell...went with JFK as the low man as they almost always seem to screw themselves up...as does Islip...though with a bit less frequency recently.

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