earthlight Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 SPC WRF is out...looks exactly like the NAM. Precip has some trouble initially but then recovers. People complaining about this, with the way the winter has gone so far, should leave the forum. Total QPF looks just shy of or around 0.5". http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/nmmwrf.refd1000_animate_1h.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Radar presentation starting to improve over PA and to our SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Wow there may be thunderstorms back where my family lives in NC tomorrow. How about that! OT sorry! SPC WRF is out...looks exactly like the NAM. Precip has some trouble initially but then recovers. People complaining about this, with the way the winter has gone so far, should leave the forum. Total QPF looks just shy of or around 0.5". http://www.emc.ncep....animate_1h.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 I have to admit, this is pretty funny http://www.meteo.psu...AD4_0z/rad9.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Suny mm5 looks good. Looks like about .35"-.45" for NYC. Has the best stuff around 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I have to admit, this is pretty funny http://www.meteo.psu...AD4_0z/rad9.gif If that happens ill be amazed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I have to admit, this is pretty funny http://www.meteo.psu...AD4_0z/rad9.gif Dews are not even that low it just doesn't make sense. Plus it can't be right the hole is right over your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Weenies will be calling bust shortly! I have to admit, this is pretty funny http://www.meteo.psu...AD4_0z/rad9.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I have to admit, this is pretty funny http://www.meteo.psu...AD4_0z/rad9.gif What is DT's snow shield doing up here? Is he is NY visiting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Dews are not even that low it just doesn't make sense. Plus it can't be right the hole is right over your house. Prob a temporary dry push in the 700 level. Same thing happened with the October storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Talk about a snow hole: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BGM&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Its showing the snow making it to the ground very soon. Thats beam being higher up the further away from the radar. Dont worry. Talk about a snow hole: http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Still snowing pretty good around the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Look at the heavy snow echos massing over central PA, MD, and DC. Then take two deep breaths, and relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Look at the heavy snow echos massing over central PA, MD, and DC. Then take two deep breaths, and relax. I should probably be 5 posted for trying to stir up the usual crowd. I apologize. I'm just stoked that we're finally seeing some snow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 If all of this, already getting close to central PA/SNJ at 12 AM, somehow doesn't get to NYC and still surrounds us by the early morning hours, I'll be amazed... some dry slots are possible but I'm wondering if there's actually going to be a dry slot as big and long lasting as some of these models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I should probably be 5 posted for trying to stir up the usual crowd. I apologize. I'm just stoked that we're finally seeing some snow tonight. Hey we're all kids at heart when it comes to snow. (or as DT used to say, 'sick twisted freaks') Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Those are not dry slots. A dry slot is a drying of a column of air in the atmosphere that extends great depths in length, IE within a well developed cyclone. These are just areas the model thinks has less dBZ. The models will ALWAYS struggle with things like this. Again, the snow will start light and pick up by sunrise. If all of this, already getting close to central PA/SNJ at 12 AM, somehow doesn't get to NYC and still surrounds us by the early morning hours, I'll be amazed... some dry slots are possible but I'm wondering if there's actually going to be a dry slot as big and long lasting as some of these models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Talk about a snow hole: http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes It doesn't help the elevation at the office up there is at 1600' haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 IIRC SnowGoose did guarantee us snow in this time frame a while ago lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Dry slots are caused by stratospheric dry air driving down into a mid latitude cyclone, They give the storm a comma like apperance (The clear part). They tend to form during the mature part of the cyclone development cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 30z dBZs by 5am: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 its hard not to get excited for people in central and northern nj, as well as nyc. Precip extends all the way back to Ohio and there's already a nice band moving in from the south. The trajectory of everything looks excellent and its still very very cold. Im pretty pumped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Predictions for 1/21/2012 event: Central Park: 5.1" LaGuardia: 5.2" Kennedy: 4.3" Newark: 5.1" Islip: 4.9" Bridgeport: 5.7" Upton: 6.1" Should be winding down in NYC around 2:00 PM in the afternoon...the high # for OKX is largely based on them benefitting from a stiif NE wind off the Sound...they seem to do rather well in those situations...but every storm is different so time will tell...went with JFK as the low man as they almost always seem to screw themselves up...as does Islip...though with a bit less frequency recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The radar is looking impressive. I am pumped for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Look at the heavy snow echos massing over central PA, MD, and DC. Then take two deep breaths, and relax. We finally have a nice light offshore flow that in of itself is enough to get excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Threads dead.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 18.9* w/ Lgt Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 KISP RUC BUFKIT Sounding 18Z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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