friedmators Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 right near my old stomping rounds....i use to work at the corner of adams lane and rte 130. the building across from Margaritas pizzeria. good luck down there! Just got to my friends in West Windsor. Route 130 and Church Street. She wanted to put salt out. I told her that would ruin the shoveling experience tomorrow. Realizing now i should change my location back to Edison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 00Z RGEM Total Snow. Yeah, it brought it back a little around the city, it happens. Usually the rgem is so money right before the event its hard to bet against it, so i hope its wrong, but snow is snow, Im still pumped up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Thats right! I was saying something similar today to some other Meteorologists on campus. A few days ago, it didnt look like we have enough cold air. Now we do and we have snow hours away. Bring it! That is why any declarative statements about snowstorms more than three days in advance (especially in this part of the world) are quite often wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Everyone worries about mixing, but I wonder if a persistent dry air pocket will put someone in a localized screw zone? Some of the high res models clown maps have had odd lollipops and accumulation deserts in places where elevation wouldn't account for the discrepancy. If you look at the RGEM animation...there appeared to be light snow ongoing in eastern NYC and Nassau for several hours while everyone else was in at least moderate snow...somewhat weird... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I know I am bantering, but im used to that..being that I lived in NC for 15 years. That is why any declarative statements about snowstorms more than three days in advance (especially in this part of the world) are quite often wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'm in Morris County. This will be my 1st snow storm since October 30th, 2008. Been a long time, looking foward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 If you look at the RGEM animation...there appeared to be light snow ongoing in eastern NYC and Nassau for several hours while everyone else was in at least moderate snow...somewhat weird... Push of dry air probably on the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 gfs has liquid across the whole area through 9z, seems to come in quicker than nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 00Z RGEM Central Park Meteogram from 06Z Saturday to 00Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'm in Morris County. This will be my 1st snow storm since October 30th, 2008. Been a long time, looking foward to it. pft about time you manage to come back, flordia is boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 we havent had one of these nice little events in a while. or maybe its just the anticipation of it after a dreadful winter is higher than usual. 22F, light NNW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 pft about time you manage to come back, flordia is boring. LOL, nah man. It's 80 degrees in my neck of the woods. You get used to it really quick. I'm hoping for a Blizzard 96 style storm before I go back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 through 15hours on the gfs, 850 line well south of the city i think this comes in line with all the other gfs runs precip amount wise and probably colder than 18z at 18z 850 line right over nyc cutting LI in two north shore south shore, give or take precip amounts are still in the .30 to .40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 If you look at the RGEM animation...there appeared to be light snow ongoing in eastern NYC and Nassau for several hours while everyone else was in at least moderate snow...somewhat weird... I know both in Mt Holly and Upton CWA's past few years there have been irregular accumulation patterns both in some of our bigger events and in marginal ones...some due to hours of lighter snowfall due to drier air streaming into a narrow region and eroding the precip shield, other times in the marginal events some areas taken longer to moisten and losing precious hours of accumulating snow, then basicallly going right to mix....there was one where DC got 2-4"...my location in south Jersey got a dusting...and central jersey and points north got 4-5" due to losing hours of precip to dry air, where that same area of dry air drained down to dc leading to evaporative cooling that allowed them to stay mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 03Z Observations, MSLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 12Z NYC. Pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 That's definitely an odd solution... weird thing is that the HRRR/RR also showed this before, they're starting to back away from it, instead showing a 30-35dbz band coming through, but the RGEM now shows this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 03Z Observations, MSLP hey tmagan, where do you get those beautiful mslp obs maps? thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 That's definitely an odd solution... weird thing is that the HRRR/RR also showed this before, they're starting to back away from it, instead showing a 30-35dbz band coming through, but the RGEM now shows this: NAM shows the same thing. Nothing to freak out about. Might be picking up on some dry air or developing banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 NAM shows the same thing. Nothing to freak out about. Might be picking up on some dry air or developing banding. Good thing that it's just a little dry slot, probably won't have any huge impact on the total snowfall... at least it's actually going to snow and accumulate without a changeover, that's good enough by itself. Might be a while until we get another snowstorm like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 The RUC looks good http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ruc/255/maps/2012/01/21/02/RUC_255_2012012102_F08_CREF_SURFACE.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 NAM shows the same thing. Nothing to freak out about. Might be picking up on some dry air or developing banding. its draining dry air down the hudson valley, thats why. it happens all the time with a 1030 high over upstate ny. It could eat a few flakes IF its real. I stand by what i said earlier, SWFE don't tend to have much virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The RUC looks good http://www.twisterda...REF_SURFACE.png Mt. Earthlight poised for some serious orographic lifting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Should get some good virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 This new 03z RUC precip map should be enough to cause a weenie freak out. Yikes...last nights clipper looked better http://www.meteo.psu...UCNE_3z/f09.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 western PA radar filling in http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ccx&product=N0R&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The RUC seems a bit too low with snow amounts IMO... every model has a widespread 4+ inch area, yet the previous RUC run only had a tiny 4 inch area near central PA and parts of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 hey tmagan, where do you get those beautiful mslp obs maps? thanks! Digital Atmosphere, but you have to do some coding to get the color maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Digital Atmosphere, but you have to do some coding to get the color maps. This forcast would show some colorful maps. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=48.77429274267508&lon=-121.81640625&site=sew&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 This forcast would show some colorful maps. http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text oh my god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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