eduggs Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 A few 8" and 9" reports now coming out of northern IL and IN. Unofficial snow to water ratios around 14:1. Our region will likely be closer to 12:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 pumped the best part of the storm will be during day light hours. Finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 yes it did, but it has had some busts too Yep, which means that it has been right and wrong in the past, so it's solution can't simply be thrown out the window. As NYCSuburbs mentioned, it had an epic flunk on the 4/1/11 system, when it predicted 5 inches for the area, and we got a trace of snow. Then there are times when it exactly nails the situation like 1/26/11. It's sort of like black and white with the HRRR. It's either exactly right, or exactly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Can't say that the radar to the west is very impressive at all. You can see why the NAM has delayed the precipitation until 08-09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I can see some locations in the boros reaching watch criteria. Im surprised there are no watches out to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Can't say that the radar to the west is very impressive at all. You can see why the NAM has delayed the precipitation until 08-09z. yeah, but its gonna come together with the stuff moving up from the south and also with the surface redevelopment which really aids the period from 12z-18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Looks like a light snow event to start with some moderate snows later on leading to a nice event. Everyone needs to stop worrying. yeah, but its gonna come together with the stuff moving up from the south and also with the surface redevelopment which really aids the period from 12z-18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Can't say that the radar to the west is very impressive at all. You can see why the NAM has delayed the precipitation until 08-09z. You sound like the SNE pessimists complaining they won't get the 2.8 inches the Euro promised them lol. All we should care about are the results on the ground. A swath of 4-6 inches with locally higher amounts is present in the wake of this system. That's good enough evidence for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Looks like a light snow event to start with some moderate snows later on leading to a nice event. Everyone needs to stop worrying. No worries, my post was solely in regards to start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 I can see some locations in the boros reaching watch criteria. Im surprised there are no watches out to be honest. Why would there be a watch out with the event less than 12 hours away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I can see some locations in the boros reaching watch criteria. Im surprised there are no watches out to be honest. umm you mean warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 precip shield seems to be improving and building out in western PA in the last few frames of the national loop.Im feeling good, not worried at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Good I got concerned you were worried. No worries, my post was solely in regards to start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Looks like a light snow event to start with some moderate snows later on leading to a nice event. Everyone needs to stop worrying. you and me on the same page man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 rgem rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 precip shield seems to be improving and building out in western PA in the last few frames of the national loop.Im feeling good, not worried at all. http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true this radar shows virga but i definitely like what im seeing. Moderate-Heavy snow over the OH valley heading east with atlantic moisture in the SE heading north into the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 http://www.intellica...px?animate=true this radar shows virga but i definitely like what im seeing. Moderate-Heavy snow over the OH valley heading east with atlantic moisture in the SE heading north into the system. not looking at intellicast, i use nws national loops but either way, its gonna all work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Rgem seems to delay precip a little as well. Through 7am tomorrow only about 1mm falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Rgem seems to delay precip a little as well. Through 7am tomorrow only about 1mm falls. good, more snow in day light it will still come in faster than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Looks like the beggining of their front end thump down in Va per the Mid Atlantic subforum obs thread starting to fire up with reports....Staying at my brother's in North Brunswick since I have work in New Brunswick tommorrow, gonna try and wake up briefly to make some pre-dawn obs. Location is right near Rt 1/ Rt 130 junction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Rgem cut back on precip by a good amount, it appears. I would guess maybe 7mm-8mm. Or .25"-.30" Pretty big slash in precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 first flakes on rgem 8z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Looks like the beggining of their front end thump down in Va per the Mid Atlantic subforum obs thread starting to fire up with reports....Staying at my brother's in North Brunswick since I have work in New Brunswick tommorrow, gonna try and wake up briefly to make some pre-dawn obs. Location is right near Rt 1/ Rt 130 junction. right near my old stomping rounds....i use to work at the corner of adams lane and rte 130. the building across from Margaritas pizzeria. good luck down there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Good I got concerned you were worried. Ah, never buddy. She'll do what she wants...thats the truth to it. Any snow we can get is a blessing in this current hemispheric pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 good, more snow in day light it will still come in faster than progged. Models probably backing off the overrunning that produced snow in IA, WI, IL, MI, and IN today, and keying more on the surface wave currently in TN that will eventually move off the mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Rgem seems to delay precip a little as well. Through 7am tomorrow only about 1mm falls. Everyone worries about mixing, but I wonder if a persistent dry air pocket will put someone in a localized screw zone? Some of the high res models clown maps have had odd lollipops and accumulation deserts in places where elevation wouldn't account for the discrepancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Models probably backing off the overrunning that produced snow in IA, WI, IL, MI, and IN today, and keying more on the surface wave currently in TN that will eventually move off the mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow. yes, that actually is what brings the heavier totals to the area on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 00Z RGEM Total Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Thats right! I was saying something similar today to some other Meteorologists on campus. A few days ago, it didnt look like we have enough cold air. Now we do and we have snow hours away. Bring it! Ah, never buddy. She'll do what she wants...thats the truth to it. Any snow we can get is a blessing in this current hemispheric pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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