earthlight Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 The NAM has delayed the start of precipitation until 08-09z for most areas this run. Interesting to see considering these things usually come in fast. But the biggest thing is that this run is colder. Phew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Ncep maps have .50"-.60" as well. Great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I think the more intense lift could send me to more of a mix. EIther way, ill take this! nah, you need the lift to cool that column back to 0, but it doesnt matter, you get it good sounding buddy, congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yup, very slightly cooler and roughly .45 to .55 avg across the region. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I dont know what others are seeing with the sim refl, but I see several areas of 20-30 dBZ which is more than enough for good snow. as i recall from past years, isnt it common for the final run just prior to an event for the qpf to diminish on the model, but not in reality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 looks like we get a weak 850 low to pop just se of nyc which keeps that warm push away from us. Thats good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'm in Selden (Suffolk Co.) and there's already a coating of snow and ice in the grass. I haven't seen a flake of snow since October so this is surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 27.7 here. Actually up 1.3 from earlier, but that was when it was clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 what's the source for that map? Digital Atmosphere using METAR plus SYNOP observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'm in Selden (Suffolk Co.) and there's already a coating of snow and ice in the grass. I haven't seen a flake of snow since October so this is surprising. That was from yesterday's snow (Thursday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 still think we see csi banding from ne pa into northern jersey over to tornado jay, possibly into the the northern burbs of nyc then into sw ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I do think the more intense warm advection (apart of the stronger vvs) was helping those previous runs with the warmer mid levels. nah, you need the lift to cool that column back to 0, but it doesnt matter, you get it good sounding buddy, congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Also has a bit left after 18z too The NAM has delayed the start of precipitation until 08-09z for most areas this run. Interesting to see considering these things usually come in fast. But the biggest thing is that this run is colder. Phew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 0z NAM is a good run for LI. Not so good for the mid-Hudson Valley and north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I do think the more intense warm advection (apart of the stronger vvs) was helping those previous runs with the warmer mid levels. except the sleet only started to show up when the best lift moved out..... ill side with you on this, you got the red tag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 money shot on the old eta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 A little cooler soNYC will see more snow then sleet. I am concern abot the start time. Looking at the radar it looks that it could start a few hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 There are also some *very* rare occasions when a cold high will build in from the North / NE (very rare)...and draw cold air in from Maine and eastern Canada...I believe it happened a few times during the 1993-94 winter when rain changed to snow over the Twin Forks first as cold air was drawn in from the northeast...while it continued to rain over southern Nassau and western Nassau... Key here is rare. 95 percent of the time MTK is going to change first. Where MTK makes up for its propensity to change over is in those events that are further offshore when we all get missed and they cash in on an outer band, we have seen that happen many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 So in actuality, the NAM increased QPF amounts. Awesome run, and colder which is even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 FWIW, the 23z HRRR has been showing a snowy solution for the area. This is only to 15 hours, so there is plenty of precipitation still left to fall. 3-4" in C NJ with more to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The 0z NAM simluated radar shows the snow intensifying over NYC around 15z tomorrow before moving into southern CT/Long Island by 18z... that would probably help a little with the accumulations for places that do not see any changeover by then. FWIW, the RR also shows this after an odd dry slot where somehow NYC sees 1 inch less than central NJ and SE NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The 0z NAM simluated radar shows the snow intensifying over NYC around 15z tomorrow before moving into southern CT/Long Island by 18z... that would probably help a little with the accumulations for places that do not see any changeover by then. FWIW, the RR also shows this after an odd dry slot where somehow NYC sees 1 inch less than central NJ and SE NY. Mixing problems do not arrive at JFK until 12:00-1:00 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 From the computer printout of the 0z NAM...the warmest it gets in the tropsphere above JFK during the event is at Hour 18 (1:00 PM Sat) when the temp rises to +0.1 C @ 900 MB and the +0.2 C @ 850 MB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 FWIW, the 23z HRRR has been showing a snowy solution for the area. This is only to 15 hours, so there is plenty of precipitation still left to fall. 3-4" in C NJ with more to fall. There's that weird dry area over NYC that the RR also has... the HRRR has shown plenty of weird solutions before though and isn't a very reliable model so it's not something I'm really worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Talk about surprising, here is the latest TAF for JFK...appears the NWS is really backing off for tomorrow, very odd... TAF KJFK 210234Z 2103/2206 02005KT P6SM BKN120 OVC250 FM210600 07005KT P6SM OVC050 FM210900 09007KT 2SM -SN OVC008 FM211100 09011KT 1SM -SN BR OVC005 FM211600 04011KT 2SM -SNRAPL BR OVC010 FM211900 35012G20KT P6SM BKN020 FM220000 01010KT P6SM FEW200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 From the computer printout of the 0z NAM...the warmest it gets in the tropsphere above JFK during the event is at Hour 18 (1:00 PM Sat) when the temp rises to +0.1 C @ 900 MB and the +0.2 C @ 850 MB... Per 0z NAM, ISP, OKX, and even FOK (Westhampton) have the entire column below freezing throughout the event...though the printout only shows 6 hour increments...so it might slip above briefly in between... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 There's that weird dry area over NYC that the RR also has... the HRRR has shown plenty of weird solutions before though and isn't a very reliable model so it's not something I'm really worried about. The HRRR nailed January 26th-27th 2011, when it predicted 12-18" for C NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 SV maps are off FYI, there is more precip than they show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The HRRR nailed January 26th-27th 2011, when it predicted 12-18" for C NJ. I can't think of another time it nailed a storm though. I still clearly remember the HRRR showing 5" of snow on 3/31/11 which ended up as light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The HRRR nailed January 26th-27th 2011, when it predicted 12-18" for C NJ. yes it did, but it has had some busts too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.