earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Lets kick this off the right way with a beautiful visible satellite shot. It will be fun for sure over the next 24 hrs. Good luck to all, and wishing you all lots of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Also, please keep this about maps, models, analysis, etc. I just created a separate thread if you wanna argue about what your favorite met says. Love the reports coming out of the midwest and the SPC WRF looked gorgeous at 12z, looking forward to the 00Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Radar out of Chicago is looking increasingly impressive, I have a good feeling about this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 The 12z NCEP models being a tick warmer was not all that much of a surprise. They like to do this prior to SWFE's with mid level warm punches. But seeing the high resolution RGEM and Euro stay relatively cool is a great sign. 10-11mm on the RGEM (I believe that was the rough estimate) is good for a 3-5" snowfall for most of us. I think we could still see a jackpot of near 6" in the elevated areas of NE NJ, SE NY, or interior CT. There is a pretty good signal for a burst of +SN throughout the entire area when the WAA strengthens in the early AM hours on Saturday. The higher resolution models are showing this nicely. The SPC WRF has it as well. Something to watch for -- the gradient really tightens here and thats when you can get heavier precipitation even in a non-dynamic H5 setup. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/refd_1000m_f27.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Radar out of Chicago is looking increasingly impressive, I have a good feeling about this one Same here. I wouldn't be shocked to see the snow start falling by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 12Z RGEM Total Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 New SREFs out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Midnight may be too early for a start time despite the fact that these events like to move in earlier than forecast. Most of the models have an area of very light precipitation over the area at 06z which could very well be virga given the forecast soundings. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/refd_1000m_f18.gif The heavier precipitation doesn't move into the area until around 10z. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/refd_1000m_f22.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 New SREFs out yet? 8 mins, give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 8 mins, give or take. Lol, its now an exact science! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Midnight may be too early for a start time despite the fact that these events like to move in earlier than forecast. Most of the models have an area of very light precipitation over the area at 06z which could very well be virga given the forecast soundings. http://www.emc.ncep....d_1000m_f18.gif The heavier precipitation doesn't move into the area until around 10z. http://www.emc.ncep....d_1000m_f22.gif yeah, no way for midnight. I don't think we will have much virga, i really don't. I think we could see some CSI tomorrow with that big push the hi res models are showing. Don't have bufkit, but I wonder if there is anything showing up on the skew-t's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's just nice to know were actually gonna see some snow this winter, even if its not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 12Z RGEM Central Park Meteogram from 00Z Saturday to 00Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 12Z NAM BUFKIT forecast sounding for 15Z Saturday with respect to KLGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Latest and greatest, totals came up about an inch from NYC west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm the last guy to criticize the NWS, but I have to wonder why OKX still has a winter storm watch up for many counties. It is terrible looking at the current WWA map and seeing advisories and watches on bordering counties in the same zone. Extremely confusing for the public, especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 15z srefs look good. .50" line is into NYC again. Surface 32 degree line never makes it to NYC. 850's go just north of NYC at hour 27 but there is no precip left at that point. Just .01" falls after. The bulk of the precip falls from hour 18 to 24 and during this time, the temps in all levels are very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 warmest point of the 15z srefs at 850 while its still precipitating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 warmest point of the 15z srefs at 850 while its still precipitating And even this is towards the end. Only .10" of precip falls between hour 24 and 30. .35"-.40" falls before hour 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm the last guy to criticize the NWS, but I have to wonder why OKX still has a winter storm watch up for many counties. It is terrible looking at the current WWA map and seeing advisories and watches on bordering counties in the same zone. Extremely confusing for the public, especially. well, they are putting out their afternoon disco now, its not really going to mess much up, its a non work day and well before the 5 and 6pm news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm the last guy to criticize the NWS, but I have to wonder why OKX still has a winter storm watch up for many counties. It is terrible looking at the current WWA map and seeing advisories and watches on bordering counties in the same zone. Extremely confusing for the public, especially. You're assuming the average public knows the difference. In a poll that I conducted in my office last year, nobody could tell me the difference between an advisory, watch or a warning. To them it all means the same, snow is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 You're assuming the average public knows the difference. In a poll that I conducted in my office last year, nobody could tell me the difference between an advisory, watch or a warning. To them it all means the same, snow is on the way. Here's a good read from our friend Ryan from SNE...seems to have the same concerns. Just a passing though, not really that big of a deal. http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/2012/01/20/saturday-snowstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Here's a good read from our friend Ryan from SNE...seems to have the same concerns. Just a passing though, not really that big of a deal. http://ryanhanrahan....rday-snowstorm/ The general public really only concerns themselves with forecasted snow totals. Watches/Warnings and Advisories are really only for local municipalities and state goverment offices. For example, a school district is more likely to cancel school if a warning is issued as opposed to an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM is a tick farther south with the surface low pressure at 15 hours compared to the 12z run. This is causing slightly less mid level warm air advection to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 This run of the NAM is also showing better lift for precipitation through 15 hours..should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Sims show precip entering our area by 2am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I suppose this event will actually not trend north as it normally does with these SW Flow events, given the sfc low is S on the NAM, I mean north as in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The general public really only concerns themselves with forecasted snow totals. Watches/Warnings and Advisories are really only for local municipalities and state goverment offices. For example, a school district is more likely to cancel school if a warning is issued as opposed to an advisory. The same situation occurs in the summer with Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado warnings. Some on here would be suprised by the general public's definition of a tornado. They think every time there is a strong wind gust associated with a thunderstorm there could be a tornado. Had a fight with my then Father in law last year about a microburst in West Milford. Luckily the Tornado that struck parts of the city the year before last along with what happened in the deep south last year has raised awarness a tad. Bill Korbel from News 12 LI summed it up well once when he said the public will never notice when you forecast 2 inches of rain and you get a half inch, they'll always however notice when you forecast 2-4 inches of snow and get 7 or 8 or 10, thats where the public's skepticism on snow forecasts comes from is that a small margin for error and it becomes noticeable to them way easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This run of the NAM is also showing better lift for precipitation through 15 hours..should be good. Agree STRONGLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Heaviest part of storm at hour 18, or 7am tomorrow morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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