weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The active strong of weather will continue as we move through the weekend as yet another storm system will be impacting the region. This system will have more of an impact across CT/RI/SE MA than it will areas further to the north as this system will be passing to the south of our region. The fact that this system will not be overly strong or have a large moisture shield will mean less of an impact for the northern areas. Like the clipper system that affected the region Thursday night this storm system will be a fast mover...in and out in less than 8-10 hours. Just about everyone with the exception of the immediate CT coast line, RI coastline and outer Cape will see an all snow event. Areas along the immediate CT coastline, RI coastline, and outer Cape will see either a transition towards sleet during the middle and later parts of the storm or see a mix of snow and sleet. This will tend to slightly cut back on snowfall totals across these areas. While the system will only intensify slightly there is not an incredibly amount of moisture involved within this storm and there really isn't a great deal of lift involved either. Away from the immediate coastline areas with surface temperatures very cold as well as temperatures aloft along with temperatures in the area of best snowgrowth (between 12K and 15K) running around -15C this will result in some pretty good snowfall ratios, likely on order of 12:1 to 15:1 (the further north you go the better the ratios...however, the further north you go the less in the way of precipitation there will be). Computer models are forecasting QPF totals of about 0.2'' to 0.4'' with the highest totals occurring across southern areas as well as SE MA. Some computer models are also showing the potential for an inverted trough to briefly setup across the Cape area helping to enhance the moisture in this region as well as convergence. Give the above and how things are looking I believe the highest snowfall totals will occur across far SE MA including the Cape. Winds across eastern MA may become quite gusty as well with gusts possibly in excess of 35-40 mph. The duration of these stronger gusts should be rather brief though. This could lead to some isolated power outages across this area. Snowfall should begin breaking out between 4:00 AM and 6:00 AM and should be all over and done with between 4:00 PM and 6:00 PM (although by the Cape could last until 8:00 PM-9:00 PM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 2-4?? Whre are the 4-8 inch amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 2-4?? Whre are the 4-8 inch amounts? I knew you would post and say something negative. We're not seeing 4-8'' in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I knew you would post and say something negative. We're not seeing 4-8'' in CT. you are an island Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 you are an island Paul What does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 What does that mean? you are alone surrounded by every forecast office and met calling for 4-8 state wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 you are an island Paul . . . But he's not alone on that island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 you are alone surrounded by every forecast office and met calling for 4-8 state wide I just don't see that much here. Sure the ratios are good but qpf should be meh...I can't see there being anything more than 0.5''. Even the sref snowfall probs for that are non-existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Garth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 When all you use to make forecasts are the GFS ..this is what you are left with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 When all you use to make forecasts are the GFS ..this is what you are left with I used a blend of euro/gfs/nam/sref. Even nam only had 0.4'' here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 The nam seems to wet overall anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Miley seems to wet overall anyways. Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Paul tried to make a snowfall map but he was too low, low, low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 That was good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Still waiting to hear a reason as to 1) why I'm to low And 2) reasons for why the higher totals will occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Paul tried to make a snowfall map but he was too low, low, low. . . . "Boots with the Fur. Everyone in the club was looking at her." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 . . . "Boots with the Fur. Everyone in the club was looking at her." You're on a roll today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Still waiting to hear a reason as to 1) why I'm to low And 2) reasons for why the higher totals will occur Lets take just QPF for now. GFS has at least .25" QPF for the region NAM nearly gets .5 in a lot of the state, has it in E CT and SE MA SREFs get >.25" With snow ratios at 12:1 in poorer areas of growth and ratios generally around 15:1 I think most places will see at least 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I think he is correct for ... ahem... North of the Pike... but a bit low for most of CT, RI, SE Mass I would go 4-7 for that region. Maybe someone near Bob or my sister's house in Burrilville sees 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 As I am out in Hartford on business, monitoring both this board and the Lakes/Ohio Valley. From what I am hearing from chicago, they are having issues getting good sized dendrites, basically getting very very small flakes at a high rate. Most forecasts were assuming large dendrites with high ratios in the area of 18-20+:1. Currently they are seeing 12-14:1 if not lower. QPF looks good, if central CT is going to fall short of the 3-6 range (which I doubt) it will be a ratio problem not a moisture issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 I would side with the lower side of the qpf here...storm is a very quick mover and not all that organized...really isn't a great deal of moisture inflow either. All the best lift is mainly low level. Still worried about the low RH values in the area of best snowgrowth zone. I went with ratios of about 13:1 and qpf around 0.4''...another issue is highest ratios disjointed from higher qpf values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I would side with the lower side of the qpf here...storm is a very quick mover and not all that organized...really isn't a great deal of moisture inflow either. All the best lift is mainly low level. Still worried about the low RH values in the area of best snowgrowth zone. I went with ratios of about 13:1 and qpf around 0.4''...another issue is highest ratios disjointed from higher qpf values. Doesn't that come out to 5.2" of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Doesn't that come out to 5.2" of snow? Yup. I was going to go with 3-5 but doing that people expect 5'' and I don't think we see wideespread 5-6'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I would side with the lower side of the qpf here...storm is a very quick mover and not all that organized...really isn't a great deal of moisture inflow either. All the best lift is mainly low level. Still worried about the low RH values in the area of best snowgrowth zone. I went with ratios of about 13:1 and qpf around 0.4''...another issue is highest ratios disjointed from higher qpf values. 13 * 0.4 = 5.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 I also usually cut back by an inch or whatever when doing the ratio x qpf math...can't assume you will see exactly those qpf amounts or even ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 go with what you got. not like there's any harm in it. you do have some valid points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 not bad but DEF. too low for south central ct thru ...ginxy land on a line over to bob (10 miles N and S of this line) is at least 3-6 ...prolly 4-8 with ratio's . i think many spots will throw up a 6 tommorrow from danbury on a line to ginx and bob over to plymouth . seems clear to me. but don't change based on our opinions it b/c like CC wx said....you have good points...stick to your guns have you seen the nws snow maps or hpc 48 hr snow probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 LOL Paul you are defending your forecast fine... just let the weenies be mad because you aren't showing them getting clobbered. I like BOX's 3-6" though if ratios aren't as great as advertised and model QPF stays the same, then yeah widespread 3-4". Ratios are higher its more like 4-6". QPF really isn't that big on the models and as Messenger likes to point out during almost every storm, they tend to start backing off or we get less QPF than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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