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Jan 20th snow event part 2


Thundersnow12

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DTX...

HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER SRN WI/NRN IL WILL DRIFT ACROSS SRN

MI THIS MORNING. THE SFC HIGH AND DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL MAINTAIN DRY

CONDITIONS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ATTENTION THEN

TURNS TO THE SNOW THAT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN NE AND SD.

THIS SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVE NOW OVER

IDAHO AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN

UPPER JET. THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL RACE EASTWARD TODAY...SLIDING

INTO THE WESTERN GR LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE WAVE

ITSELF SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES DUE TO MORE STRONGLY CONFLUENT

FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL JET HOWEVER IS FORECAST

TO BECOME ORIENTED ACROSS SERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL

WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE JET SHOULD ALLOW THE STRONGEST UPPER

LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO BE WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION...FOCUSED OVER SRN

AND CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS EVENING. THIS IN TURN WILL INCREASE SYSTEM

RELATIVE ASCENT ALONG THE 290K SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z TO

03Z TIME PERIOD. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL BE

PLENTIFUL WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE DRY ARCTIC

AIR NOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO

RISE TO A RESPECTFUL 2-3 G/KG NEAR 700MB THIS EVENING. THE WATER

VAPOR LOOP HAS BEEN SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE PACIFIC

INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...SUPPORTING MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES. THESE

FACTORS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SE MI THIS

EVENING.

OVERALL MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SE MI IS STILL

EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ALL GENERALLY

INDICATE THE BETTER FGEN OCCURRING BETWEEN 925 AND 850MB...WHICH

WILL EXTEND ALONG THE MI/OH BORDER AND POINTS SOUTH. CROSS SECTIONS

ALSO SHOW SOME SEMBLANCE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONTAL

BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE STATE...WITH RELATIVELY HIGH STATIC STABILITY

OVER SRN MI. SO IF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONT BECOMES MORE

ACTIVE...INTENSITY OF THE SNOW OVER SE MI MAY BE COMPROMISED. THE

REGION OF LIFT OVER SRN MI MAY ALSO FAVOR SMALLER SNOWFLAKE SIZES

DURING PORTIONS OF THE EVENT.

SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE MI BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. ONSET OF

SNOW WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. IN LIGHT OF

THE PACE OF SNOW UPSTREAM...TENDING TO LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER

GFS/CANADIAN WHICH BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW IN BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE

FORCING TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AS MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE

AND DRYING ADVANCE IN FROM THE WEST BY 06Z SAT. AS FAR AS FORECAST

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...PLAN TO STICK TO TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5

INCHES FOR LENAWEE AND MONROE COUNTIES /PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF

AN ADVISORY/. THE LIMITING FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SUPPORT A

CONSERVATIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS WASHTENAW AND WAYNE WITH LOWER

AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH /AN INCH OR TWO UP TOWARD THE TRI CITIES/.

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6z ARW seems to show LE/LES potential. If it's right though, I need to move my heaviest swath south. :lol:

Have to imagine that LE is overdone..it usually is. It's also becoming pretty clear based on radar/700 trends that the heaviest precip will be at least slightly south of LOTs warning counties.

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Wrong thread for this.....

But you have to lol. It's Jan 20th and here we are talking about a 3.5 inch snow being the big fish. josh? You want to frolic with the sub 20 inch folks now? Lol. JK. This winter has been a headake for the State. Even Snyder complained about the lack of snow during the State of the State.

Yes wrong thread. This winter has been a headache for the entire midwest and northeast. Snow is snow. A calendar date means nothing when you look at 140 years of climate data, and the recent spoiled years have done nothing to help either. Lets just keep it to this storm in this thread....more powder is on the way.

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Moderate snow at the moment. SW edge not too far away though, 10 mile visibility at Moline lol. Only 7 degrees.

you're going to have to gamble with the edge to see the best totals with this one...good luck hanging on. I like around the Dekalb area for my jackpot zone (in illinois) this morning but would shift that a bit south based on current trends.

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you're going to have to gamble with the edge to see the best totals with this one...good luck hanging on. I like around the Dekalb area for my jackpot zone (in illinois) this morning but would shift that a bit south based on current trends.

I'd bet there's some scrambling going on in a couple offices this morning. still feel IWX will upgrade a few counties to warning before this ends. only thing I question is the speed it cooking at.

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I'd bet there's some scrambling going on in a couple offices this morning. still feel IWX will upgrade a few counties to warning before this ends. only thing I question is the speed it cooking at.

not sure we'll see any upgrades yet...it will be interesting to see just what ratios are looking like. Models really do dampen things out as it heads east so i'm skeptical on warning amounts as you head east out of Iowa.

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Have to imagine that LE is overdone..it usually is. It's also becoming pretty clear based on radar/700 trends that the heaviest precip will be at least slightly south of LOTs warning counties.

giddy up . . . as it is...Naperville/DuPage County is accross the street from me. . .but they may have to add at least Will to the WSW . . . although Will has such a north/south gradient...so dunno

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not sure we'll see any upgrades yet...it will be interesting to see just what ratios are looking like. Models really do dampen things out as it heads east so i'm skeptical on warning amounts as you head east out of Iowa.

Local model continues to show a gap in the snow over the southeast IWX this evening, then filling in and and snowing most of the night. Think ft wayne south may be in for a suprise.

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