Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 mason city . . . KMCW 201436Z AUTO 10011KT 1/4SM +SN VV009 M17/M19 A3004 RMK AO2 P0003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Northern IA is going to get rocked. Could be the big/biggest totals from this system will be found in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 little worried here in madison that we end up way low on totals. Looks like this thing is moving right along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks like the Ames/Des Moines area is going to bust. NWS forecast has 3-4 inches for Ames, but they are literally right on the edge of the light snow. Des Moines has 1-4 for their county, but they are not getting a flake. The southern edge is razor sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 little worried here in madison that we end up way low on totals. Looks like this thing is moving right along It's not looking to good for us in Wisconsin. At least the storm on Sunday may be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I80 hi-res models looking better and better EDIT: partial sun right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Meterologist from news ch 16 says their future-cast has been shifing south all morning and now has the heaviest snow band just north of a laf to okk to just south of fwa. fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Meterologist from news ch 16 says their future-cast has been shifing south all morning and now has the heaviest snow band just north of a laf to okk to just south of fwa. fwiw. Radar and upper air trends would agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I80 hi-res models looking better and better EDIT: partial sun right now... 6z ARW seems to show LE/LES potential. If it's right though, I need to move my heaviest swath south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Moderate snow at the moment. SW edge not too far away though, 10 mile visibility at Moline lol. Only 7 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 DTX... HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER SRN WI/NRN IL WILL DRIFT ACROSS SRN MI THIS MORNING. THE SFC HIGH AND DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SNOW THAT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN NE AND SD. THIS SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVE NOW OVER IDAHO AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET. THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL RACE EASTWARD TODAY...SLIDING INTO THE WESTERN GR LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE WAVE ITSELF SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES DUE TO MORE STRONGLY CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL JET HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO BECOME ORIENTED ACROSS SERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE JET SHOULD ALLOW THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO BE WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION...FOCUSED OVER SRN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS EVENING. THIS IN TURN WILL INCREASE SYSTEM RELATIVE ASCENT ALONG THE 290K SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z TO 03Z TIME PERIOD. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE DRY ARCTIC AIR NOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO A RESPECTFUL 2-3 G/KG NEAR 700MB THIS EVENING. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP HAS BEEN SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...SUPPORTING MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES. THESE FACTORS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SE MI THIS EVENING. OVERALL MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SE MI IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ALL GENERALLY INDICATE THE BETTER FGEN OCCURRING BETWEEN 925 AND 850MB...WHICH WILL EXTEND ALONG THE MI/OH BORDER AND POINTS SOUTH. CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOW SOME SEMBLANCE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE STATE...WITH RELATIVELY HIGH STATIC STABILITY OVER SRN MI. SO IF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONT BECOMES MORE ACTIVE...INTENSITY OF THE SNOW OVER SE MI MAY BE COMPROMISED. THE REGION OF LIFT OVER SRN MI MAY ALSO FAVOR SMALLER SNOWFLAKE SIZES DURING PORTIONS OF THE EVENT. SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE MI BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. ONSET OF SNOW WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. IN LIGHT OF THE PACE OF SNOW UPSTREAM...TENDING TO LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER GFS/CANADIAN WHICH BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW IN BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FORCING TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AS MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ADVANCE IN FROM THE WEST BY 06Z SAT. AS FAR AS FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...PLAN TO STICK TO TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR LENAWEE AND MONROE COUNTIES /PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY/. THE LIMITING FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SUPPORT A CONSERVATIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS WASHTENAW AND WAYNE WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH /AN INCH OR TWO UP TOWARD THE TRI CITIES/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 this is a total full frontal nudity situation for janetjanet to normally be posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 6z ARW seems to show LE/LES potential. If it's right though, I need to move my heaviest swath south. Have to imagine that LE is overdone..it usually is. It's also becoming pretty clear based on radar/700 trends that the heaviest precip will be at least slightly south of LOTs warning counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 As such, 6z NMM would agree as well...moving the heaviest south. Eh, nowcast time I guess. Good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 0F and snow is falling steadily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wrong thread for this..... But you have to lol. It's Jan 20th and here we are talking about a 3.5 inch snow being the big fish. josh? You want to frolic with the sub 20 inch folks now? Lol. JK. This winter has been a headake for the State. Even Snyder complained about the lack of snow during the State of the State. Yes wrong thread. This winter has been a headache for the entire midwest and northeast. Snow is snow. A calendar date means nothing when you look at 140 years of climate data, and the recent spoiled years have done nothing to help either. Lets just keep it to this storm in this thread....more powder is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Moderate snow at the moment. SW edge not too far away though, 10 mile visibility at Moline lol. Only 7 degrees. you're going to have to gamble with the edge to see the best totals with this one...good luck hanging on. I like around the Dekalb area for my jackpot zone (in illinois) this morning but would shift that a bit south based on current trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 0F and snow is falling steadily. Love it when we prove the old wives tale "too cold to snow" wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 As such, 6z NMM would agree as well. Eh, nowcast time I guess. Good luck to all. not bad, i'm riding my 5" call, with LE i'm probably too low, without, i'm going to nail or be a hair high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 you're going to have to gamble with the edge to see the best totals with this one...good luck hanging on. I like around the Dekalb area for my jackpot zone (in illinois) this morning but would shift that a bit south based on current trends. I'd bet there's some scrambling going on in a couple offices this morning. still feel IWX will upgrade a few counties to warning before this ends. only thing I question is the speed it cooking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 not bad, i'm riding my 5" call, with LE i'm probably too low, without, i'm going to nail or be a hair high. LE will most likely tell the tale, as you said. I like you in my solid 5-7" range. Hopefully it rips silly later for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'd bet there's some scrambling going on in a couple offices this morning. still feel IWX will upgrade a few counties to warning before this ends. only thing I question is the speed it cooking at. not sure we'll see any upgrades yet...it will be interesting to see just what ratios are looking like. Models really do dampen things out as it heads east so i'm skeptical on warning amounts as you head east out of Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Have to imagine that LE is overdone..it usually is. It's also becoming pretty clear based on radar/700 trends that the heaviest precip will be at least slightly south of LOTs warning counties. giddy up . . . as it is...Naperville/DuPage County is accross the street from me. . .but they may have to add at least Will to the WSW . . . although Will has such a north/south gradient...so dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 BTW, nice dendrites again, similar to the other night. Not huge flakes by any means, but far from pixie dust. Wherever this main band sets up is gonna do quite well. Gotta be down close to 1/4 mile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 a few 30 DBZ popping East and West of QC . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 is this thing supposed to slow up at all....that back edge is moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 IND has 3-4" total for LAF in their latest zone forecast. Seems bullish to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 not sure we'll see any upgrades yet...it will be interesting to see just what ratios are looking like. Models really do dampen things out as it heads east so i'm skeptical on warning amounts as you head east out of Iowa. Local model continues to show a gap in the snow over the southeast IWX this evening, then filling in and and snowing most of the night. Think ft wayne south may be in for a suprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 HRRR is up again. Has a nice band of .5" precip through 15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 snow starting in IL . . . KSFY 201515Z AUTO 10006KT 3/4SM -SN OVC009 M14/M18 A3019 RMK AO2 T11361183 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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