Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Jan 20th snow event part 2


Thundersnow12

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 860
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I think one of our early Dec snowfalls had an advisory? Dont exactly remember. Its all about the issuing forecaster. DTX is always conservative like that, and imo its stupid not issuing one esp for consistency purposes with GRR. Right now they are going with advisory for Monroe (3-5) and no advisory for Detroit with "conservative" (their words) forecast of 2-4". If NAM/EURO are right, you can bank on them upgrading Detroit to an advisory.

Technically, ONLY Oakland County had a Winter Storm Watch that was downgraded to a WWA for the November 30th event, but it was only for the far NW part of the county.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yeah...was just checkin' the saturation v virga . . . but yur image verifies as heaviest reports are coming outta NW Iowa for the most part

we're in the process of saturating right now, i think the city starts seeing light snow around 10:30, it also looks like we'll see a nice fgen band from RFD ESE into the city...but that's just a guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Obviously, we're in nowcast mode, but the 12z NAM has shifted the heaviest band in Iowa down to Waterloo, the farthest south it has ever had it. Current radar and obs have a heavy band over that location now. Waterloo is down to 1/4 mi vis. I am currently still getting a solid light snow, with an accumulation of 0.6" so far.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SEMI snow Map. General 2 to 4" for most. Up to 5" in some spots around Ann Arbor and SW Wayne Cty. 1 to 2" in Northeastern Macomb and St. Clair as dry air will be a havoc on snowfall initially. My Call for DTW 3.6". FNT 2.6" PTK 2.7" PHN 1.5".

post-4267-0-71868000-1327065488.jpg

imo biggest wild card is ratios. So many different numbers have been thrown out for ratios, and thats what it will all come down to. Temps will be in the teens. Will this be a sandy powder (10:1), a fluffy powder (20:1) or somewhere in between (15:1)?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think LAF will get another 3, going to be all snow there. I'm optimistic about an 1 inch will fall IMBY.

Yeah I don't know. QPF looks rather meager here. I'm worried about missing out on the WAA portion entirely and then "southern" portion of the storm up here skirts to the south. Kind of a squeeze play. Models have flipped flopped a little on this idea. I think 1-2" is a good middle ground...if there is such a thing with light amounts either way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

start calling you cyclone.. 1-2" lol. 4" for Kenosha maybe lol.

Gl down there! 7" 2 day total looking good.

Euro or bust for me with MKE. Hoping the good ratios work out...though I like my lower end of the call better at the moment.

I would be shocked if we get over 2". Too far south and then too far north. We'll see.

Good luck to you as well. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

imo biggest wild card is ratios. So many different numbers have been thrown out for ratios, and thats what it will all come down to. Temps will be in the teens. Will this be a sandy powder (10:1), a fluffy powder (20:1) or somewhere in between (15:1)?

DTX nailed it in reference to flake size being an inhibitor . I'm going for the under on the totals. General 1-3 for the metro areas and 4 totals in TOL. This system might be headed further south.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DTX nailed it in reference to flake size being an inhibitor . I'm going for the under on the totals. General 1-3 for the metro areas and 4 totals in TOL. This system might be headed further south.

Definitely better the farther south you go. Right now I will say I will be shocked if DTW gets less than 2" or more than 5", I realistically expect 3-4". Biggest snow of season is 3.4" at DTW on Dec 5th but by a mile this will still be the biggest impact snow of the season with temps/road conditions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definitely better the farther south you go. Right now I will say I will be shocked if DTW gets less than 2" or more than 5", I realistically expect 3-4". Biggest snow of season is 3.4" at DTW on Dec 5th but by a mile this will still be the biggest impact snow of the season with temps/road conditions.

Wrong thread for this.....

But you have to lol. It's Jan 20th and here we are talking about a 3.5 inch snow being the big fish. josh? You want to frolic with the sub 20 inch folks now? Lol. JK. This winter has been a headake for the State. Even Snyder complained about the lack of snow during the State of the State.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...