PatrickSumner Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Since the HRRR continues to be offline... the latest RPM looks pretty sweet for pretty much all of northern Illinois. Northern IN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Northern IN? Also looks pretty good. What a crappy time for the HRRR to take a ****. Anyone know why it's down? Someone trip over a cord? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 i'm going to roll with 4-8" for the area. possibly locally higher amounts where ever the main FGEN bands sets up the longest and if LES ends up a bigger player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 i'm going to roll with 4-8" for the area. possibly locally higher amounts where ever the main FGEN bands sets up the longest and If LES ends up a bigger player. Yeah sounds good. The whole Chicago area has looked like ground zero for best snow accumulations for model run after model run of all different types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Since the HRRR continues to be offline... the latest RPM looks pretty sweet for pretty much all of northern Illinois. problem is it doesn't have hardly any of the precip down in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 i'm going to roll with 4-8" for the area. possibly locally higher amounts where ever the main FGEN bands sets up the longest and if LES ends up a bigger player. I myself like 5-8" for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 problem is it doesn't have hardly any of the precip down in NE Looks like a lot of that is still aloft though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 -SN reported in Norfolk, NE, 9° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I am still liking 3-5" here and 5-7" in Chicago with locally higher amounts in Chicago. If the lake enhancement can be realized there someone might run into double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I am still liking 3-5" here and 5-7" in Chicago with locally higher amounts in Chicago. If the lake enhancement can be realized there someone might run into double digits. Sounds like a good call! Local tv met's have been mentioning lake effect for the northshore around here. NAM developed a meso low over the western shore and drifted it inland a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Models are saying 0.3" of liquid for MSN generally, I sure wish the HRRR was up though to consult that. Good vertical motion throughout the whole column during this, bullseye around 600 hPa, coinciding with -10 to -20 °C temperatures. It's gonna be high ratio powder, ski resort quality. 0.3" could spit out 6" or more, especially since the winds will be light. And if moisture over performs a bit, which it has been this winter, then we could get even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 IND going with WWA with 2-5 inches across the northern counties... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 LOT I EXPECT THIS ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY QUICK MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN AND ALLOW SNOW TO BEGIN AT KRFD BETWEEN 13 AND 15 UTC AND IN THE CHICAGO METRO AREA BETWEEN 15 AND 17 UTC. A STRONG BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO SET UP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY LEAD A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH 1+ INCH PER HOUR RATES. WHAT MAKES THIS FORECAST THE MOST DIFFICULT IS THAT THE HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A NARROW BAND OF ONLY 40 TO PERHAPS 60 MILES WIDE. I AM CONVINCED THAT SOME AREAS WILL GET 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW...HOWEVER NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE AMOUNTS THIS HIGH. THEREFORE...PINNING DOWN THE EXACT AREAS THAT WILL APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA IS VERY DIFFICULT. ON TOP OF THIS...THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS HEAVIER SNOW BAND WILL BE IN MY AREA. IN FACT...SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...FAVORING THE I-80 CORRIDOR. IN SPITE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THIS THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND...I WILL MAINTAIN THE WARNING AND EXPAND THE ADVISORY A COUNTY FARTHER SOUTH AS THESE AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE 2 TO 5 INCHES. IT LOOKS LIKE A CLOSE CALL FOR KENDAL AND WILL COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS AND LAKE AND PORTER COUNTY INDIANA. THESE COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER THIS MORNING. I JUST DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THEM TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME NOT KNOWING EXACTLY WHERE THIS BAND WILL SET UP. OVERALL...THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL BETWEEN ABOUT 1 PM AND 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORCING SHOULD THEN QUICKLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REMAINS NORTHEASTERLY OFF THE LAKE. THE OVERALL SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT IS FAIR AT BEST...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS RATHER LOW...UP TO ONLY 4,000 AGL. IN SPITE OF THIS...THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND WEAK SURFACE FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE LAKE...MAY ALLOW A MESO LOW DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEASTERN WI. IF THIS DOES DEVELOP LIKE SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST...THAN THERE COULD BE A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA TONIGHT. THIS COULD DROP ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW ACROSS SOME LOCAL AREAS OF COOK AND LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Definitely concerning with temps as cold as they already are this morning. Could limit the freezing rain potential across Eastern Indiana and Central Ohio. Definitely have the feeling that this will be one of the few cases where the WAA ends up not being as much of a factor as the NAM had been showing. Baroclinic zone definitely nudged Southward as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Jan 20th and still no Advisory/Warning for Detroit..wow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Jan 20th and still no Advisory/Warning for Detroit..wow.. I think one of our early Dec snowfalls had an advisory? Dont exactly remember. Its all about the issuing forecaster. DTX is always conservative like that, and imo its stupid not issuing one esp for consistency purposes with GRR. Right now they are going with advisory for Monroe (3-5) and no advisory for Detroit with "conservative" (their words) forecast of 2-4". If NAM/EURO are right, you can bank on them upgrading Detroit to an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 final call 2.7" here.. Jackpot, Cyclone..pessimistic...ftw...south and west of WI FTW AIT since day one of tracking this event FTW. Maybe Peoria can get a nice surprise and Janet Jackson will make an appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Still riding my 5" call here and if anything it's looking a little low but I'll ride it into the ground. Ratios are looking much better lately and should hit 20:1 over northern Illinois...yes i understand the mid levels still warm a little too much for best growth but i really like the amount of lift that does exist in the zone, so 20:1+ in areas that get under the best fgen forcing...which looks like it cold be the heart of the metro area during rush hour. In more general terms, I like Chicagostorm's call areawide, I think 4-6" amounts are the norm, we'll see some 2-3" screw holes and a 10" jackpot zone. Good luck everyone. EDIT: Based on current radar/700mb/850 trends...everything looks on track for Chicagoland and i'm seeing some decent evidence of lake enhancement on the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Was not expecting an advisory for all snow here at all. But then looking at temps that does not surprise me. Currently at 3 here now with a low of 0 last night. Freakin freezin out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Was a little disappointed to not wake up to a WSW. Still feel that there could be an upgrade to some advisories later. Here's my go to guy around here. My hope is to higher totals in Chicago land translate this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 good morning guys - any help on free software to make professional looking snowfall maps? looks like it would be cool to make an ass out of myself and prognosticate a few of these systems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Maybe I should stay in Connecticut. I come out here for 2 weeks and we get 2 storms. I come back Sunday and we go mini torch... Good luck all, and post pictures! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 My hi-res WRF runs from 0z. Shifted a tad south yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Still riding my 5" call here and if anything it's looking a little low but I'll ride it into the ground. Ratios are looking much better lately and should hit 20:1 over northern Illinois...yes i understand the mid levels still warm a little too much for best growth but i really like the amount of lift that does exist in the zone, so 20:1+ in areas that get under the best fgen forcing...which looks like it cold be the heart of the metro area during rush hour. In more general terms, I like Chicagostorm's call areawide, I think 4-6" amounts are the norm, we'll see some 2-3" screw holes and a 10" jackpot zone. Good luck everyone. EDIT: Based on current radar/700mb/850 trends...everything looks on track for Chicagoland and i'm seeing some decent evidence of lake enhancement on the tail end. any thoughts on a start time ? Thinking 10-11am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 any thoughts on a start time ? Thinking 10-11am? Sounds about right, best rates should be 2-5ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Im calling 2-4in for Milwaukee. Leaning more towards the higher end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Radar shows a large area of solid green over my area with some medium green, but it has only just begun to flurry. I'm thinking 3 inches here. Just need that very sharp back edge of the band to hold to my sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 is any of that snow thats building south of rockford hitting the ground, or is it all virga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 is any of that snow thats building south of rockford hitting the ground, or is it all virga? No not yet. Several reports of SN in northern IA/southern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 good morning guys - any help on free software to make professional looking snowfall maps? looks like it would be cool to make an ass out of myself and prognosticate a few of these systems... Paint.net and GIMP are the only ones I would recommend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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