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Jan 20th snow event part 2


Thundersnow12

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LOT's take on Lake effect tonight:

.DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

335 PM CST...

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE

MID LEVEL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOW...THE INITIAL

FORECAST CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE EFFECT BAND

OF SNOW MOVING INTO NERN IL. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LAKE

SFC-850MB DELTA-T AROUND 15C OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH

WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGH RES

WRF-ARW/NMM WITH SUPPORT OF THE OPERATIONAL NAM12...ALL INDICATE A

CONVERGENCE BAND FORMING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH THE

POSSIBILITY OF MESOVORTEX DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE

AND INVERTED TROUGH. WITH TIME...THE BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE

INLAND AND TO THE NORTHWEST...POSSIBLE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NERN

AND NCNTRL IL. CONCURRENTLY...LAKE SFC-850MB DELTA T VALUES WILL BE

ON THE DECREASE. SO...EXPECT MORE OF AN ADVECTING BAND OF LAKE

EFFECT SNOW THAN CONTINUOUS PRODUCTION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE

IMMEDIATE LAKE FRONT LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO DEPICT

THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST GRAPHICS WITH AN AREA

OF CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH -SHSN. THERE IS CERTAINLY THE

POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THE MAIN CONVERGENCE

AREA...BUT DUE TO THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF ANY POSSIBLE MESOVORTEX

DEVELOPMENT...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PINPOINT ANY POSSIBLE HEAVIER

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH WOULD NEED TO BE HANDLED

WITH A NEAR TERM FORECAST UPDATE TOMORROW.

Skilling's RPM showed the lake effect blowing in about 11pm for Lake County, IL., then going to NE Cook Co. Then hanging around well into tomorrow.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

753 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0730 PM FREEZING RAIN BLOOMFIELD 39.03N 86.94W

01/20/2012 U0.00 INCH GREENE IN AMATEUR RADIO

NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS OCCURRING DUE TO ROAD ICING ON HIGHWAY 54.

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8.0 vicinity Bull Valley is suspect based on watching radar all day. A slant sticker? I'll be there in ten minutes. That would be a major surprise to verify.

Edit: gotta be 5 tops.

That was sent out in a blizzard of reports coming in, definitely unrepresentative. We're going to remove it from the next summary LSR.

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Flake size has been slowly improving here, but I've hit just about 2, maybe 2.5" here already. Still coming down hard.

Wonder if I will see that up here? I wouldnt say its pixie dust but flake size isnt that big. The air is just very full of flakes, love that foggy visibility look outside (knowing of course its snow, not fog lol).

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