Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not the max QPF bro.. They mean the northern edge of the .25+ QPF being pushed up to near GB now since the past few runs.. Which is why they expanded their WWA's up north to near Sheboygan.. Can't buy that one either, sorry. 0z NAM pushed that northern edge farther south versus the 18z run. Regardless, hugging the Euro like I love to do, advisories being expanded to the north look solid as per favorable ratios and decent QPF. 18z NAM 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 0z nested 4km NAM shows the lake enhancement/effect for NE. IL/SE. WI...including meso low formation, which eventually pushes into these areas. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 0z nested 4km NAM shows the lake enhancement/effect for NE. IL/SE. WI...including meso low formation, which eventually pushes into these areas. nice nugget joe! ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Just for sh*ts and giggles.... Chicago and Detroit should both officially wipe off any chance of least snowiest winter this year with this event Thru Jan 19th, Chicago is at 7.5", record low is 9.8" (1920-21), and Detroit is at 10.5", record low is 12.9" (1936-37). Since we still have 3 months or snow potential to go, lets go for it....above climo season total or bust for 2011-12. IMO.. A flame thrower Winter will do you some good. Humble you out a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 few images off the 21z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Link? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4NC_0z/comploop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 few images off the 21z SREF was reviewing that stuff....would the 21Z have sampled data in it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 few images off the 21z SREF lolz, MPX better start upping amounts...only 2" total in their zone forecast for MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Saturation and really nice omega through the preferred snow growth zone on the 00z NAM at KORD tomorrow afternoon. ~1"/hr snowfall rates possible. Going to be a fun afternoon commute for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 IMO.. A flame thrower Winter will do you some good. Humble you out a little. lol. Ive seen warm winters before...1997-98 and 2001-02, and of course, Ive seen warm winter months (Jan 2006, Dec 2001, to a lesser extent Dec 2011). Theres no humbling needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Saturation and really nice omega through the preferred snow growth zone on the 00z NAM at KORD tomorrow afternoon. ~1"/hr snowfall rates possible. Going to be a fun afternoon commute for everyone. that coupled with limited chemical success on the roads is going to be brutal if that verifies. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 where's aleking? no input on 00Z NAM. Probably riding his 5 inch call and white knuckling the Illini/Penn St. game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 was reviewing that stuff....would the 21Z have sampled data in it? It has 18z NAM taint in them. FWIW. The SPC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) is constructed by post-processing all 21 members of the NCEP SREF plus the 3-hour time lagged, operational WRF-NAM (for a total of 22 members) each 6 hours (03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC). Output is available at 3h intervals through 87 hours. The SPC ensemble post-processing focuses on diagnostics relevant to the prediction of SPC mission-critical high-impact, mesoscale weather including: thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms, large scale critical fire weather conditions, and mesoscale areas of hazardous winter weather. Presentation of the SREF output via this WEB portal is similar to its presentation at the SPC within the N-AWIPS operational display system. All SREF information presented herein is for guidance purposes only and remains under development. This ensemble guidance should not be mistaken for or used in lieu of operational SPC products and forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 where's aleking? no input on 00Z NAM. Probably riding his 5 inch call and white knuckling the Illini/Penn St. game... p much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Now that it's out, ya'll: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lot&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 skilling bumped his call up to 4-9" for the area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 LOT upgrading to a warning AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 928 PM CST THU JAN 19 2012 DISCUSSION 927 PM CST FOR EVENING UPDATE... HAVE MADE THE TOUGH DECISION TO UPGRADE A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. TIMING REMAINS THE SAME...BUT SEVERAL THINGS POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH OF 6-8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AND THE HEAVIEST LIKELY COMING JUST PRIOR TO OR INTO THE EVENING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. THIS TIMING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT GIVEN FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTES...AND THIS HELPING TO PUSH ME OFF THE FENCE TO THE WARNING SIDE THIS EVENING. IN SHORT...GOES VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. NEW 21Z SREF AND 00Z WRF RUNS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECEDING RUNS...WITH THE 00Z WRF ACTUALLY SHIFTING LOCATION OF HEAVIER QPF AXIS BACK TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN IL VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z RUN. TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT DEEP VERTICAL MOTION DEVELOPING DURING THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN ELEVATED DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER CO-LOCATED. NEGATIVE EPV LOCATED ABOVE FRONTOGENETIC MAXIMA ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY MORE INTENSE WEST-EAST BANDING. POTENTIAL FOR SOME 1+ INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REALLY A CONCERN WITH RESPECT TO TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS. EVEN CONSIDERING THE WRF MAY BE A BIT BULLISH WITH ITS LIQUID QPF...AM EXPECTING AT LEAST A NARROW BAND OF 6-7 INCHES FROM ROCKFORD SOUTHEAST INTO THE CHICAGO AREA. BASED ON ALL OF THIS WILL HAVE WINTER STORM WARNING FROM OGLE...DEKALB...KANE DUPAGE AND COOK NORTHWARD. RATZER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 00Z NAM has 0.19" at FNT (2m temps mid-upper teens), 0.27" at DTW (2m temps upper teens), and 0.38" at TOL (2m temps low 20s). It will be interesting to see a few where the ratios from north to south, as well as if the system manages to jolt a nudge north with lack of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 W.S.Warning for northern IL. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It has 18z NAM taint in them. FWIW. ty much sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 fwiw...the 0z RGEM also shows meso low formation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 RGEM looks much better for areas along the I-80 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 that coupled with limited chemical success on the roads is going to be brutal if that verifies. . . Most definitely. Even though winds won't be an issue, roads might be a lot worse this event because of the cold ground and higher rates, plus vis easily could go down to less than 1/2 mile in 1"+ rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 fwiw...the 0z RGEM also shows meso low formation. That'll be interesting to watch unfold - if it does. I remember some meso lows that made quite an impact in the area with higher then expected snowfall amounts. Skilling's model hinted at it also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 RGEM looks much better for areas along the I-80 corridor. Let's lock in the RGEM, ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Let's lock in the RGEM, ok? Yep, and I'm sure Hawkeye and Justin would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 fwiw...the 0z RGEM also shows meso low formation. Back to Bowme's I-80 special if that's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Back to Bowme's I-80 special if that's right. What's your call for LAF and OKK Hoosier? Still think travel may get quite hazardous around here tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 0z GFS looks good through 21hr. More of a W-E movement of the area of snow. Thankfully I got my hours switch to work the morning tomorrow, will be home by noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 0z GFS shifted a bit south...favors I-80 in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.