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Jan 20th snow event part 2


Thundersnow12

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Not the max QPF bro.. They mean the northern edge of the .25+ QPF being pushed up to near GB now since the past few runs..

Which is why they expanded their WWA's up north to near Sheboygan..

Can't buy that one either, sorry. 0z NAM pushed that northern edge farther south versus the 18z run. Regardless, hugging the Euro like I love to do, advisories being expanded to the north look solid as per favorable ratios and decent QPF.

18z NAM

0z NAM

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Just for sh*ts and giggles....

Chicago and Detroit should both officially wipe off any chance of least snowiest winter this year with this event :lol::weenie:

Thru Jan 19th, Chicago is at 7.5", record low is 9.8" (1920-21), and Detroit is at 10.5", record low is 12.9" (1936-37). Since we still have 3 months or snow potential to go, lets go for it....above climo season total or bust for 2011-12. :bike:

IMO.. A flame thrower Winter will do you some good. Humble you out a little.

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was reviewing that stuff....would the 21Z have sampled data in it?

It has 18z NAM taint in them. FWIW.

The SPC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) is constructed by post-processing all 21 members of the NCEP SREF plus the 3-hour time lagged, operational WRF-NAM (for a total of 22 members) each 6 hours (03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC). Output is available at 3h intervals through 87 hours. The SPC ensemble post-processing focuses on diagnostics relevant to the prediction of SPC mission-critical high-impact, mesoscale weather including: thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms, large scale critical fire weather conditions, and mesoscale areas of hazardous winter weather. Presentation of the SREF output via this WEB portal is similar to its presentation at the SPC within the N-AWIPS operational display system. All SREF information presented herein is for guidance purposes only and remains under development. This ensemble guidance should not be mistaken for or used in lieu of operational SPC products and forecasts.

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LOT upgrading to a warning

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

928 PM CST THU JAN 19 2012

DISCUSSION

927 PM CST

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

HAVE MADE THE TOUGH DECISION TO UPGRADE A PORTION OF THE WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. TIMING REMAINS THE

SAME...BUT SEVERAL THINGS POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH OF

6-8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AND THE HEAVIEST LIKELY COMING JUST PRIOR TO

OR INTO THE EVENING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. THIS

TIMING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT GIVEN FRIDAY

EVENING COMMUTES...AND THIS HELPING TO PUSH ME OFF THE FENCE TO THE

WARNING SIDE THIS EVENING.

IN SHORT...GOES VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER

DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. NEW 21Z

SREF AND 00Z WRF RUNS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH

PRECEDING RUNS...WITH THE 00Z WRF ACTUALLY SHIFTING LOCATION OF

HEAVIER QPF AXIS BACK TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN IL VERY SIMILAR

TO THE 12Z RUN. TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT DEEP

VERTICAL MOTION DEVELOPING DURING THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN

ELEVATED DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER CO-LOCATED. NEGATIVE EPV LOCATED

ABOVE FRONTOGENETIC MAXIMA ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY MORE

INTENSE WEST-EAST BANDING. POTENTIAL FOR SOME 1+ INCH PER HOUR

SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REALLY A CONCERN WITH

RESPECT TO TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS. EVEN CONSIDERING THE WRF MAY BE A

BIT BULLISH WITH ITS LIQUID QPF...AM EXPECTING AT LEAST A NARROW

BAND OF 6-7 INCHES FROM ROCKFORD SOUTHEAST INTO THE CHICAGO AREA.

BASED ON ALL OF THIS WILL HAVE WINTER STORM WARNING FROM

OGLE...DEKALB...KANE DUPAGE AND COOK NORTHWARD.

RATZER

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that coupled with limited chemical success on the roads is going to be brutal if that verifies. . .

Most definitely. Even though winds won't be an issue, roads might be a lot worse this event because of the cold ground and higher rates, plus vis easily could go down to less than 1/2 mile in 1"+ rates.

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fwiw...the 0z RGEM also shows meso low formation.

That'll be interesting to watch unfold - if it does. I remember some meso lows that made quite an impact in the area with higher then expected snowfall amounts. Skilling's model hinted at it also.

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