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Jan 20th snow event part 2


Thundersnow12

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1239 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

THE WINTER STORM EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL

DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ATOP THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A MAJORITY

OF AUTOMATED SENSORS IN THE AREA ARE REPORTING AT LEAST ONE HALF

OR ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY AS A GENERAL SWATH/BAND OF SNOW

EVOLVES EAST NORTHEAST. THE FORCING FOR THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO

SLOWLY WORKING THAT DIRECTION BEFORE PIVOTING MORE WEST TO EAST.

THIS WILL ACTUALLY FAVOR ALL FIVE AREA TAF SITES TO BE WITHIN

MODERATE SNOW...WITH TEMPORARY ONE QUARTER MILE SNOW...ACROSS THE

AREA. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE GRADUAL AFTER 23Z AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS

TO THEN EVOLVE MORE EAST SOUTHEAST. CIGS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE

TRICKY...BUT GIVEN THE LOW VISIBILITY IN SNOW THESE LIKELY ARE A

SECONDARY CONCERN. EXPECT A SLOW LOWERING OF CIGS AS THE

ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SATURATE AND HEAVIER SNOW BANDS SIMPLY

BRING THE VERTICAL VISIBILITY DOWN. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE

AIRPORTS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES...WITH

TEMPORARY RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR LIKELY AT TIMES. AS THE

SYSTEM DEPARTS...A STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WIND WILL LIKELY LEAD

TO A CONVERGENT AXIS FAVORABLE FOR A LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW

BAND OR TWO. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MVFR

CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY WELL INTO SATURDAY.

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