A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's the true wild card for you. But have to like that they're showing it right now. Yeah, at this point it looks like it will be a factor for someone on this side of the lake...probably nothing major but a period of enhanced rates looks like a safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm liking 2.999999999999" here in LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Are you posting from an ice fishing shanty while drinking a case of Keystone? Sunday - no packer game and it will be torching. Is Alek your new, JB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 approaching high end light snow...nice coating on all surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Sunday - no packer game and it will be torching. Is Alek your new, JB? ya. more local, no hype Edit: LOT Aviation on LE //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z... A SOMEWHAT UNIQUE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AHEAD OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA TO THE WEST HAS BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO MDW AND MAY TO ORD TEMPORARILY BEFORE THE PRIMARY SNOW ONSETS. HAVE SLIGHTLY SLOWED THE 1SM SNOW ONSET...BUT NOT THE HALF MILE YET AS A WELL-DEFINED BAND IS EVOLVING EAST NORTHEAST FROM DBQ TO VYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 ya. more local, no hype I hear he is pretty cheap and good too. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1021 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2012 UPDATE NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES. SNOW ARRIVING AS PLANNED. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST TOTALS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. 12Z 850 ANALYSIS SHOWED TIGHT BAROCLINIC RIBBON ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH WNW 500 MILLIBAR 90 KNOT JET AT KGRB. BACK EDGE OF RETURNS IN SW MN/NW IA. WAVE TO EXIT THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT STILL ON TRACK FOR MKE/RAC/ENW COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. NAM HAS FAVORABLE 1000-850 TRAJECTORIES. GFS NOT TOO SHABBY EITHER. DELTA T FAVORABLE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PROGS FOCUSING FROM SRN MKE COUNTY INTO EASTERN RACINE/EASTERN KENOSHA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. PC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wow, you can't cut it much closer than this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 cheap...sure, good...naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indeedinger Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 About 20 miles east of Waterloo - Big flakes, heavy snow for the last hour. Approaching 4 inches of accumulation - looking like we are on track for 6"+ based on radar trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Could end up being an ice storm for parts of Central Ohio tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wow, you can't cut it much closer than this.. It was looking pretty good earlier as I thought we would be well within the snow band. Unfortunately, the dry air surge has really done a job so it appears Cedar Rapids is now permanently stuck in the light snow on the back edge. Maybe we can still eke out three inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Light snow dusting the sidewalks/streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Gilbert not too impressed. FORECAST DISCUSSION: A lot of snow has been sublimating (evaporating) through a dry layer of air aloft at about 2,000', clearly seen on the Quad Cities weather balloon report this morning. Furthermore, snowfall reports in Iowa and Nebraska have all been between 2"-4" in the heaviest band of snow. While it's still possible that some areas will see 6", the new NAM model has once again backed off on amounts for us, and radar clearly shows that happening. I know I'm going against many forecasts here, but I live in reality, and models are guidance. And reality shows 3"-5", with isolated heavier amounts, and also some amounts being lower. Having said all of that, the roads will quickly deteriorate from here on out, and you should expect a rough rush hour with temperatures in the teens making salt rather ineffective. Salt at 20 degrees takes 20 minutes to begin to melt the snow; below 10 degrees, it is useless without calcium chloride or other things mixed in, and salt at 30 degrees melts 5 times more ice and snow than at 20 degrees (and there's your science lesson for the day). The rest of the forecast discussion should be out by noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It was looking pretty good earlier as I thought we would be well within the snow band. Unfortunately, the dry air surge has really done a job so it appears Cedar Rapids is now permanently stuck in the light snow on the back edge. Maybe we can still eke out three inches. Yeah it's only about 15-20 miles southwest of here, and quickly approaching. Ripping very nicely here at the moment, but unless another band develops soon we'll be dry slotted. Guessing we have 1.5" or so just by eyeballing out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Here's my one legitimate concern for LAF getting more than 2"...and the hi res models show it. The WAA portion of the event is a complete dud and we totally rely on development to the west tonight (over or just east of PIA). Thus a relatively short period of snow (2-4 hours)...where it better be rip city. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nice flake size outside.. Visibility slowly lowering.. Can't wait for the returns W of Turtle to get here.. I hate to break it to you, but it's all pixie dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I hate to break it to you, but it's all pixie dust. You located west of MSN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Saw a few flurfies out a minute ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Virga is the worst. Nice DBZ's to my southwest and it'll be a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Just woke up from the plows going by, moderate snow, visibility 0.5 miles at MSN. Much heavier echoes off to the west coming our way. Also, it's 3 °F, coldest snow storm in my short life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Gilbert not too impressed. FORECAST DISCUSSION: A lot of snow has been sublimating (evaporating) through a dry layer of air aloft at about 2,000', clearly seen on the Quad Cities weather balloon report this morning. Furthermore, snowfall reports in Iowa and Nebraska have all been between 2"-4" in the heaviest band of snow. While it's still possible that some areas will see 6", the new NAM model has once again backed off on amounts for us, and radar clearly shows that happening. I know I'm going against many forecasts here, but I live in reality, and models are guidance. And reality shows 3"-5", with isolated heavier amounts, and also some amounts being lower. Having said all of that, the roads will quickly deteriorate from here on out, and you should expect a rough rush hour with temperatures in the teens making salt rather ineffective. Salt at 20 degrees takes 20 minutes to begin to melt the snow; below 10 degrees, it is useless without calcium chloride or other things mixed in, and salt at 30 degrees melts 5 times more ice and snow than at 20 degrees (and there's your science lesson for the day). The rest of the forecast discussion should be out by noon. this is lol worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 You located west of MSN? I was referring to the good flake size Beast said was occurring here. Light snow at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 S+ at the moment. Clear air now about 10 miles away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 large and well organized shield of snow over eastern iowa, northwest illinois and extreme southern wisconsin...timing puts this into Chicago for worst possible rush hour timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I was referring to the good flake size Beast said was occurring here. Light snow at best. You at school now? Pixie dust flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 1/2SM vis at ORD as the lake enhance band moved through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 You at school now? Pixie dust flurries. Yeah, and it should be mostly pixie dust unless the heavier bands sw of Madison somehow make it in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Flurries started at 9:45, light snow about 20 minutes later. Light snow is steady at 13°. Flakes small, but not tiny. Some accumulation already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Heavy snow at MSN! 0.25 mile visibility, and the best stuff isn't even here yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 DVN just upgraded a row of counties further south to a warning. Just absolutely ripping out there right now. Looks like at least 2" and adding up fast. Wherever this band stalls out is gonna get dumped on. Looks like Maquoketa to Dixon and over to Aurora at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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