PatrickSumner Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Now we are going into the "I am going to go with the best model that suits me" deal. Personally, I am just having fun watching the models hash this out. I think this one will surprise a few for sure. Everyone take a chill pill and try and get a little rest after the EURO. You don't want to be sleeping during the actual storm. I made that mistake today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Add the UKMET to the screw you camp... On 1/20/2012 at 4:18 AM, Powerball said: 00z GEM is even worse here... The 0.2"-0.3" on the NAM/GFS would be fairly generous if it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 On 1/20/2012 at 4:05 AM, wisconsinwx said: The one thing we definitely have going for us up north is LOT just issued a WSW; what happened the last time they issued a warning? The top storm amounts ended up shifting north a bit. Yeah really. Given the GFS is further south, a north shift would be good here too! Sometimes WAA snows end up migrating more north then predicted. Going to be interesting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I see CLE is playing the waiting game... can't blame them though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 DVN ponders upgrade but passes the buck onto the morning shift...justifiably they want to see the full 00Z suite first. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Ukie south. What a strange night of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 UKMET looks like it has the heaviest band around I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Anyone know what going on with the HRRR i cant get any of the recent runs! ahhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 On 1/20/2012 at 4:43 AM, Gilbertfly said: DVN ponders upgrade but passes the buck onto the morning shift...justifiably they want to see the full 00Z suite first. . . Probably a good idea. The Euro has been pretty dry for the QC the past several runs, so the new 00z should be interesting. If the Euro comes in wetter for the I-80 zone I'll definitely start to buy in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 On 1/20/2012 at 4:48 AM, UW-weather said: Anyone know what going on with the HRRR i cant get any of the recent runs! ahhh They've had technical difficulties all day with it. That's why many of us have been monitoring WGN's RPM model lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I-80/90 special from ORD to DFI on the latest hi res NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 hi res NMM favoring I-80 too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 radar blowin' up in the plains. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 On 1/20/2012 at 4:57 AM, Thundersnow12 said: hi res NMM favoring I-80 too.. Lolz at the precip totals though.. 85% of those would be more realistic IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This thing is heading S. The S guidance fits well with the wave position/track and the region of strongest mid level frontogenesis. Radar returns across NE also fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 On 1/20/2012 at 5:02 AM, baroclinic_instability said: This thing is heading S. The S guidance fits well with the wave position/track and the region of strongest mid level frontogenesis. Radar returns across NE also fit. Epic Euro fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 On 1/20/2012 at 4:09 AM, SpartyOn said: Brutal run for the DTW crew. It would just be a repeat of todays clipper nuisance snow. Loling so hard right now. Where is the Spring/Severe weather speculation thread.? Obvious trolll is obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 On 1/20/2012 at 5:02 AM, baroclinic_instability said: This thing is heading S. The S guidance fits well with the wave position/track and the region of strongest mid level frontogenesis. Radar returns across NE also fit. uh oh, how far south is now the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 On 1/20/2012 at 5:02 AM, wisconsinwx said: Epic Euro fail. It would be the first time I can remember (this season) the Euro being so off consistently. Nothing's written in stone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 On 1/20/2012 at 5:02 AM, wisconsinwx said: Epic Euro fail. Don't troll me. The S shifts we are talking here are mild w.r.t the Euro track across southern IA and central NE 3-4 days ago which it then shifted through southern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 On 1/20/2012 at 5:05 AM, Thundersnow12 said: uh oh, how far south is now the question. Not uh oh, I would like your spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 On 1/20/2012 at 5:07 AM, baroclinic_instability said: Not uh oh, I would like your spot right now. lol i know. more of a response to wisconsinwx with the big euro epic fail quote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 On 1/20/2012 at 5:06 AM, baroclinic_instability said: Don't troll me. The S shifts we are talking here are mild w.r.t the Euro track across southern IA and central NE 3-4 days ago which it then shifted through southern MN. So do you think the precip shield that is forming will be making a turn to the ESE soon, or could you see something like the Euro from a few days ago playing out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 With the edge of the heaviest qpf band just south of UGN- I should see some good snow ratio's here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Heck of a DGZ here, unfortunately it before anything happens..haha. Also, anyone know what the difference between the yellow and pink marks when the temp is within the DGZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 On 1/20/2012 at 5:18 AM, L.B. LaForce said: Heck of a DGZ here, unfortunately it before anything happens..haha. Also, anyone know what the difference between the yellow and pink marks when the temp is within the DGZ? That may just be the mixing level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Temp sitting at -1 here, I don't think its ever been that cold before a big snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wierd storm been awesome model watching. Looking like south is gonna win out. Good luck to everyone. Glad winter is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 On 1/20/2012 at 5:30 AM, Thundersnow12 said: Temp sitting at -1 here, I don't think its ever been that cold before a big snow event. 2/6/07 says hi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 On 1/20/2012 at 5:35 AM, Hoosier said: 2/6/07 says hi. Then again I think the worst of that may have been to your south tsnow. Those obs are fun. Exhibit A: Waukegan with moderate snow and a temp just below zero. METAR KUGN 061552Z 29003KT 1/2SM SN VV010 M18/M22 A3027 RMK AO2 SNB18 SLP284 P0000 T11831217 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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