Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 continue superstition at its best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Play the hot hand. This guy has some good history (starting threads) after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 continue superstition at its best should be happy i didn't start it... would have been a miss to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 First call for LAF... 1-2" of snow and sleet. Maybe light precip during the afternoon but the bulk looks to move in during the evening hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 continue superstition at its best lol .6 lollipop right about over my house. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Boy, I'd take that latest RPM model run in a heartbeat. Once it blows up the main precip shield it keeps CR in the heavier bands for the duration. Definitely a step in the right direction. The 00z NAM at least gets us back to where we were this morning(~3 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 First call for LAF... 1-2" of snow and sleet. Maybe light precip during the afternoon but the bulk looks to move in during the evening hours. Seems solid. I don't think the 0z NAM gets us to 0.10" total precip FWIW...which isn't much (referring to the FWIW). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Boy, I'd take that latest RPM model run in a heartbeat. Once it blows up the main precip shield it keeps CR in the heavier bands for the duration. Definitely a step in the right direction. The 00z NAM at least gets us back to where we were this morning(~3 inches). Agreed. It looks like the RPM is updated every 3hrs, so a new run should be out in an hour or so. Hope it continues to look like the latest version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I don't think I've ever seen so much usage of the RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I don't think I've ever seen so much usage of the RPM HRRR is down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 New SREF mean has 8-9" from southeast Minnesota through La Crosse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 24 hr RUC is up...and it seems a bit drier and north-ier through 24hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 As I thought, 0.08" for LAF on the NAM. Cursory look says snow or sleet...or both. Heh. IND: 0.12", all ZR. OKK: 0.13", mostly snow? FWA: 0.32" of snowy goodness VPZ: 0.44", snow SBN: 0.46", snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I don't think I've ever seen so much usage of the RPM 24 hr RUC is up...and it seems a bit drier and north-ier through 24hrs lol, and then you post the 24 hour RUC. Same crappy short range model as the RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nam looks good but then slush fest? lol.. 20 hours later it's going to warm up and rain..nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nam looks good but then slush fest? lol.. 20 hours later it's going to warm up and rain..nice better then nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 lol, and then you post the 24 hour RUC. Same crappy short range model as the RPM. I wasn't aware they were the same. whoops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 better then nothing yah, for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I wasn't aware they were the same. whoops lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 lol Then again I never claimed I wasn't one of the weenies looking at the RPM in the first place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Heavy snow has been put into my local forecast for tomorrow. Friday Hi/Lo: 21°/-3° Then freezing rain/rain for Sunday then back to mix at night. 7 day has definitely trended down. Hmm...Winter Weather Advisories have been pushed further north into WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 you in the office tonight RCNYILWX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 skilling is going with 4-8" for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 These types of events with good frontogenesis seem to overperform for somebody. I think 4-7" is a reasonable generalized call for the main but wouldn't be surprised to see some bands/pockets of 8+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hmm...Winter Weather Advisories have been pushed further north into WI. MKX update below. I will say I'm not sure I see where the 0z NAM continued the trend of the 18z of pushing the max QPF north. LOOKING AT 18Z MODEL DATA I AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE TOO LOW WITH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A WARM NOSE BETWEEN 800 AND 650 MB...WHILE NOT REACHING 0 CELSIUS DOES TAKE US OUT OF THE BETTER SNOW GROWTH ZONE FOR THIS LAYER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE QPF MAY BE HIGHER SOUTH...SNOW RATIOS USING THE TOP DOWN AND COBB TECHNIQUE WILL BE HIGHER NORTH WHERE MORE OF THE SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. IN ADDITION THE 18Z NAM/GFS PUSHED THE MAX QPF AREA BACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. 00Z NAM KEEPS THIS TREND. WELL INTO ADVISORY GIVEN EXPECTED SNOW RATIOS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE RAISED NORTH AND HAVE PUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN A SNOW ADVISORY. IMPRESSIVE 170 KNOT 300 MB JET EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE. 700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS OVER 2 G/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AROUND 3 G/KG OVER PORTIONS OF LAFAYETTE COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS DISPITE THE COLD BOUNDARY LAYER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 MKX update below. I will say I'm not sure I see where the 0z NAM continued the trend of the 18z of pushing the max QPF north. Not the max QPF bro.. They mean the northern edge of the .25+ QPF being pushed further and further north the past few runs.. Which is also why they expanded their WWA's up north to near Sheboygan.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Just for sh*ts and giggles.... Chicago and Detroit should both officially wipe off any chance of least snowiest winter this year with this event Thru Jan 19th, Chicago is at 7.5", record low is 9.8" (1920-21), and Detroit is at 10.5", record low is 12.9" (1936-37). Since we still have 3 months or snow potential to go, lets go for it....above climo season total or bust for 2011-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 0z nested 4km NAM shows the lake enhancement/effect for NE. IL/SE. WI...including meso low formation, which eventually pushes into these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 0z nested 4km NAM shows the lake enhancement/effect for NE. IL/SE. WI...including meso low formation, which eventually pushes into these areas. Interesting. What time frame does it show up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Interesting. What time frame does it show up? 3-21z Fri/Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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