weathervswife Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Surface temps likely too warm now, but very interesting run on GFS around 138-156 for lower mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Someones feisty today? I'm pretty much 1/2 asleep today, bro. I'm trying to wing it and it's not working Might I make a suggestion? - You seem to always post when you are either drunk, tired, or morbidly ill. Not a wise idea. Is it too much to ask that you be totally "with" the program when you post? And not on some substance or a victim of sleep deprivation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Might I make a suggestion? - You seem to always post when you are either drunk, tired, or morbidly ill. Not a wise idea. Is it too much to ask that you be totally "with" the program when you post? And not on some substance or a victim of sleep deprivation? I haven't been drunk or 'ill' in about 10 months, I'm have chronic insomnia though. I'm sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 How about just not posting instead of "trying to wing it?" Also, it seems like you're always half-asleep based on what you've told us... go to bed. Take some sleeping pills. There is help out there. Taken verbatim with the trough punching into TX, I feel, at hrs 150-174 there should be more low pressure in the TX/LA/Gulf Coast Region with the trough, the progression otherwise looks like it is 'missing something', to me. That is my opinion, an observers point of view. http://raleighwx.ame...p06GFSLoop.html Do you mean the inital wave being kept weaker? If so thats what I'm saying, instead of trying to form, I think it should actually form by hour 156. By "there should be more low pressure in the TX/LA/Gulf Coast Region with the trough" are you trying to say that the cut-off system should hang back longer instead of progressing eastward as fast as it does? I don't see any reason to believe that "there should be more low pressure" during the 150-174 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I haven't been drunk or 'ill' in about 10 months, I'm have chronic insomnia though. I'm sorry. Well I'm sorry for your condition. But still - the times there has been massive criticism of you was during those drunk and ill times. Try to post only when you're feeling 100% with the program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 By "there should be more low pressure in the TX/LA/Gulf Coast Region with the trough" are you trying to say that the cut-off system should hang back longer instead of progressing eastward as fast as it does? I don't see any reason to believe that "there should be more low pressure" during the 150-174 hour period. No, I think that should drift further north with time as often happens, while the shortwave digging in from the rockies rides the frontal boundary off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Not sure why anyone would have faith in a sustained -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 your original post made no sense and DTK does not troll. I wasn't intending to stir the pot by asking for clarification of his original assertion. I was in no way, shape, or form trying to troll him (nor would I waste my time trolling him if he turns out to be wrong....nor pat him on the back if he ends up being correct). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Not sure why anyone would have faith in a sustained -NAO Sustained? Heck, I'd be happy with a transient one. It's a long lost friend this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 End of GFS op run is LOL. PNA going bonkers along with NAO and 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 No, I think that should drift further north with time as often happens, while the shortwave digging in from the rockies rides the frontal boundary off the SE coast. So you're suggesting this then? EDIT: Or it is that energy that goes into the Southwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I wasn't intending to stir the pot by asking for clarification of his original assertion. I was in no way, shape, or form trying to troll him (nor would I waste my time trolling him if he turns out to be wrong....nor pat him on the back if he ends up being correct). I know, that's why I made my post. Now back to the weather. At the end of the run the GFS has a major arctic outbreak. I think it shows how uncertain the pattern is going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 I know, that's why I made my post. Now back to the weather. At the end of the run the GFS has a major arctic outbreak. I think it shows how uncertain the pattern is going forward. Interesting solution huh? Big mean lakes cutter opening the door to bring down an airmass right from the pole. Again, various atl ridging looks. There are 2 spikes in the pna during the run too. We'll see what the euro thinks shortly. One thing seems to be fairly certain. Early feb isn't going to be boring or warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 End of GFS op run is LOL. PNA going bonkers along with NAO and 850's. I'm not sure why what it shows is LOL any more than it would be if it showed a torch. If you ask me, and you didn't, 15 day model forecasts are all LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Interesting solution huh? Big mean lakes cutter opening the door to bring down an airmass right from the pole. Again, various atl ridging looks. There are 2 spikes in the pna during the run too. We'll see what the euro thinks shortly. One thing seems to be fairly certain. Early feb isn't going to be boring or warm. I guess that was always ingredient number 1 for us. It's looking like late January isn't going to be all that warm either. For what was supposed to be a warm period, I'm looking out my window at snow covered ground, ice in the trees, snow flurries, my home thermometer hasn't gone above 33 since Tuesday, and the local airport (KOKV) hasn't topped 37. Not bad for a second half of January that was supposed to be very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I'm not sure why what it shows is LOL any more than it would be if it showed a torch. If you ask me, and you didn't, 15 day model forecasts are all LOL. There is no skill after day 7 or so yet we still love it. I'm still waiting on las years major arctic outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 There is no skill after day 7 or so yet we still love it. I'm still waiting on las years major arctic outbreaks. Yeah, I don't think I'll run out and buy a big parka waiting on the latest GFS solution for day 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I guess that was always ingredient number 1 for us. It's looking like late January isn't going to be all that warm either. For what was supposed to be a warm period, I'm looking out my window at snow covered ground, ice in the trees, snow flurries, my home thermometer hasn't gone above 33 since Tuesday, and the local airport (KOKV) hasn't topped 37. Not bad for a second half of January that was supposed to be very warm. Starting tomorrow, it wont be as cold as it has been, probably a little warmer than average, but it's also most definitely not a torch. I'm feeling pretty optimistic for getting at least getting a few light-moderate wintry events in February. I just hope the winter pattern doesn't stick around into Spring when it does us no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 GFS goes cold in the long run one day. Then the next day semi-warm. Then we go back to cool. Lots of uncertainty In the long range. Some things look like there in our favor and some are in the air. By the end of next we will have a better sense of what early February will bring. Still have my fingers crossed and I hope others do too. Ps I see possible arctic air at the end of the GFS run. I know it is way out there but it is nice to see the arctic air pop up again. HM on accuaweather this week still circles Northern Va for a big snowstorm in February. The only thing that stinks is the waiting game. Wes thanks again for all of your post! I learn a TON from you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Pretty much still unresolved for what we will see in Feb. Some long range guidance like the cfs and euro weeklies insist on a warmer than normal month overall. Hard to argue against that at this point. All signs of a real -nao developing have vanished. One encouraging sign is consensus for the pna ridge to give us a cold shot (or cold shots) early in the month. If you believe today's 6z gfs past 300 hours, the arctic is going to dump on us. This isn't the only model that has shown arctic air invading the plains and the ec but as Ian properly put it in a thread yesterday, "I'm still waiting for last year's gfs arctic air.". Even if the PNA does give us some workable patterns, without any type of blocking the tough and cold air won't be able to hang around very long. It appears the raging +ao/nao regime has run its course. At least no signs of +2 for either index in the near future. Too bad we can't get a block right now. Right now the ao is in negative territory. Almost -2 but the darn nao is still in positive territory. This doesn't happen all that often but it is right now. I don't have high expectations for Feb. A sustained "classic" winter pattern just doesn't seem to be in our cards this year. One nice 2-4" event followed by at least one cold day is all I ask at this point. One winter day for the kids to hit the hill. Is that too much to ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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