mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I posted this in another thread because I wasn't paying attention CFS has had us in the +2-3K for over a month and has, as of yesterday, bumped us back a category to +1-2K it has been pretty good this winter (unfortunately) so I think it is worth considering http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/usT2mMon.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm going to take some time this weekend and look at other sites around the area for the analog nina years I pulled. DCA snow didn't look great at all (especially if you get rid of 96 and that is a good idea anyway). Nina climo definitely favors N&W of DC. I'd have assume that places like IAD, BWI, and FDK etc did better but how much I have no idea. There is no reason to totally discount the chance of a decent event in Feb. We've had a very long run of some really bad teleconnections so far. Even though Nina climo isn't friendly to the MA in Feb as a whole, we probably stand the best chance all year at lining up a decent large scale pattern. If not, bring on spring and rockfish season. I have Martinsburg saved on a spreadsheet. Slim pickings for the years you chose there too. One characteristic of all those Februaries here was below-normal precipitation overall. Really only 1 of the 9 years listed had above normal pcp. MRB had a 7" storm 2/12/63 and another 2/4/75. Two 4" snowfalls, 2/19/63 and 2/2/85. That's it for "heavy" snowfalls. Even 1996 here had only 8" total, which is close to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The 18Z gefs ensemble mean and the 12Z euro ens mean are incredibly different. The euro ens mean has a trough over western Canada where the gefs has a ridge and positive pna pattern. One or both has to cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The 18Z gefs ensemble mean and the 12Z euro ens mean are incredibly different. The euro ens mean has a trough over western Canada where the gefs has a ridge and positive pna pattern. One or both has to cave. You think maybe take the Euro? I think they're higher res, and the GFS to me looks like it's rushing the pattern change a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 For February and March combined I think 30"+ is reasonable. I know I sound absolutely crazy right now. That would be unprecedented for the Washington, D.C. area during a La Niña. All four prior cases with February-March snowfall of 30" or more occurred during neutral ENSO situations or El Niños. 3/4 were El Niños. None of the 8 cases with 25" or more February-March snowfall occurred during a La Niña and 6/8 of those cases occurred during El Niño winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 It's still tough to get a decent snowstorm in such a pattern. Only 16 of 71 four inch or greater events for DCA occurred with a negative PNA pattern and half of those occurred with a positive nao and half with a negative one. Now that I've finished publishing my article. Here's the stats with scatter diagrams. Fantastic information, Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 That would be unprecedented for the Washington, D.C. area during a La Niña. All four prior cases with February-March snowfall of 30" or more occurred during neutral ENSO situations or El Niños. 3/4 were El Niños. None of the 8 cases with 25" or more February-March snowfall occurred during a La Niña and 6/8 of those cases occurred during El Niño winters. Don, good info. It's harder to get big snowstorms in a la nina year than during a nino so I'm not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 6z GFS is missing a big phase on January 27th, IMO. That has some big implications down the road. Hence this map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Not sure what you are seeing. The seperation between the cut off, which is down on the gulf coast, and the energy moving through the lakes on the 27'th doesn't look close to a potential phase. Maybe you are refering to the energy that dives further south from Canada on the 28-29th? Timing on that doesn't look good on that either though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Maybe you are refering to the energy that dives further south from Canada on the 28-29th? Timing on that doesn't look good on that either though. Yes you're right, I animated the GFS back and was looking at the wrong date. I'm looking at the larger hemispheric image, and I think the GFS seperating the many entities of energy is an incorrect solution,pressure could be too high in the southern US. Even a supressed barrel-wave off the SC coast would make more sense, to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Yes you're right, I animated the GFS back and was looking at the wrong date. I'm looking at the larger hemispheric image, and I think the GFS seperating the many entities of energy is an incorrect solution,pressure could be too high in the southern US. Even a supressed barrel-wave off the SC coast would make more sense, to me. Why is it 'incorrect'? The model doesn't separate entities of energy, it simply adheres to the discretized governing equations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 That isn't what I meant, obviously every atmospheric molecule contains 'energy'. It is my opinion as a humble observer that the GFS is not properly handling the southern wave. If I'm wrong I'm happy to be trolled endlessly. Why? EDIT: Also, what the hell is a barrel-wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 That isn't what I meant, obviously every atmospheric molecule contains 'energy'. It is my opinion as a humble observer that the GFS is not properly handling the southern wave. If I'm wrong I'm happy to be trolled endlessly. your original post made no sense and DTK does not troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 your original post made no sense and DTK does not troll. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 your original post made no sense and DTK does not troll. ? Subtropical stream wave vs the two northern stream waves? Aren't those two seperate "entities", from an atmospheric standpoint? It makes perfect sense to me? Exactly. How does this^ make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Why? Taken verbatim with the trough punching into TX, I feel, at hrs 150-174 there should be more low pressure in the TX/LA/Gulf Coast Region with the trough, the progression otherwise looks like it is 'missing something', to me. That is my opinion, an observers point of view. http://raleighwx.ame...p06GFSLoop.html EDIT: Also, what the hell is a barrel-wave? A southern slider/sheared area of low pressure would be another way to describe why I mean. Are these all legitimate questions or am I being trolled? I can't tell, honestly. Am I being that vague? If so I'm sorry for it, just tired today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 ? Subtropical stream wave vs northern stream waves? Aren't those two seperate "entities", from an atmospheric standpoint? It makes perfect sense to me. Now this makes no sense. Then that's what you should have said in the first place. You tend to throw out terms without regard to what they imply or even mean. It makes you sound like you don't know what you are talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Then that's what you should have said in the first place. You tend to throw out terms without regard to what they imply or even mean. It makes you sound like you don't know what you are talking. I'm sorry, I was trying to take a short-cut. I've heard shortwaves described as entities before, but I'll refrain from using that term I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Taken verbatim with the trough punching into TX, I feel, at hrs 150-174 there should be more low pressure in the TX/LA/Gulf Coast Region with the trough, the progression otherwise looks like it is 'missing something', to me. That is my opinion, an observers point of view. http://raleighwx.ame...p06GFSLoop.html A southern slider/sheared area of low pressure would be another way to describe why I mean. Are these all legitimate questions or am I being trolled? I can't tell, honestly. Am I being that vague? If so I'm sorry for it, just tired today. Those are legitimate questions. If you have a scientific reasoning as to why the GFS solution is wrong (using other model solutions and stating known model biases as support is also helpful), then that's fine. Saying "it just doesn't look right to me" shows just how much more you need to learn. The other question was asked because there is no weather-related term by the name of "barrel-wave." If you're going to make up a term, at least explain WHAT it is so the rest of us might have a faint chance of understanding what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Those are legitimate questions. If you have a scientific reasoning as to why the GFS solution is wrong (using other model solutions and stating known model biases as support is also helpful), then that's fine. Saying "it just doesn't look right to me" shows just how much more you need to learn. Ok thanks, but that is not what I actually said? I usually mentally 'bookmark' past model busts for reference, and the GFS on occasion when digging troughing into southern TX/Gulf, has underplayed pressure deepening at the gulf coast, along the front, which has impact down the road. The other question was asked because there is no weather-related term by the name of "barrel-wave." If you're going to make up a term, at least explain WHAT it is so the rest of us might have a faint chance of understanding what you're saying. I disagree? I've heard the terms "bowling ball" low, "double barrel" low, and "rolling barrel" low, before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Those are legitimate questions. If you have a scientific reasoning as to why the GFS solution is wrong (using other model solutions and stating known model biases as support is also helpful), then that's fine. Saying "it just doesn't look right to me" shows just how much more you need to learn. The other question was asked because there is no weather-related term by the name of "barrel-wave." If you're going to make up a term, at least explain WHAT it is so the rest of us might have a faint chance of understanding what you're saying. It is all due to the GUM factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 It is all due to the GUM factor Actually it does involve upward motion in this case But the manipulative trolling is getting old, the "exagerrated obs", or the new "GUM factor" thing are both invented, misrepresentive terms on the part of whoever made it up, and they spread like wildfire, since some feel the need to boost their own rep, at the expense of another member, hence their public respect and percieved common sense. It's just not nice, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Ok thanks, but that is not what I actually said? I usually mentally 'bookmark' past model busts for reference, and the GFS on occasion when digging troughing into southern TX/Gulf, has underplayed pressure deepening at the gulf coast, along the front, which has impact down the road. I was referring back to your original post where you didn't use evidence to support your original claim: Yes you're right, I animated the GFS back and was looking at the wrong date. I'm looking at the larger hemispheric image, and I think the GFS seperating the many entities of energy is an incorrect solution,pressure could be too high in the southern US. Even a supressed barrel-wave off the SC coast would make more sense, to me. I disagree? I've heard the terms "bowling ball" low, "double barrel" low, and "rolling barrel" low, before. Funny how your list of terms doesn't include barrel-wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Funny how your list of terms doesn't include barrel-wave. Where did I say barrel wave? Edit: That was supposed to say barrel*ing* wave, meaning moving fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Last nights euro and 0z gfs both agree on no real -nao to speak of. GFS tries to build some ridging at various times but nothing of significance. Still, atl looks good enough. Both models argree on building a nice ridge out west. GFS is advertising a closed 500 low pushing underneath the ridge again later in the period. We saw this happening in Dec. Not sure if it happens but again, a closed 500 low in the desert sw is a Nino'ish type of pattern. Overall, it still looks "ok" for us in early Feb. +PNA and a bit of ridging in the Atlantic. Plenty of cold air for us but can we time anything? The pattern advertised on the gfs would give us overunning potential with any energy that rides over top of the ridge or even something clipperlike that digs south of us. I think zwyts has our potential pretty much nailed. Flawed and nickel and dime events seem to be the best we do for a while. At least they add up. It would be nice to keep this winter off the top 10 worst list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Are you f**king kidding me? I just quoted the post where you said that in my last reponse... Someones feisty today? Where did I say barrel wave? Edit: That was supposed to say barrel*ing* wave, meaning moving fast I'm pretty much 1/2 asleep today, bro. I'm trying to wing it and it's not working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 By the way, from what I can see, the reason the 6z GFS keeps the southern low weaker is because the surface low is trying to form in the right-exit region of a jet streak (EDIT: at 300mb) within the trough, which is suppressing development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Someones feisty today? I'm pretty much 1/2 asleep today, bro. I'm trying to wing it and it's not working. I deleted that post after you put your edit in. Fact of the matter is, you still asked "where did I say it?" despite the fact that where you said it was literally just quoted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 By the way, from what I can see, the reason the 6z GFS keeps the southern low weaker is because the surface low is trying to form in the right-exit region of a jet streak within the trough, which is suppressing development. Do you mean the inital wave being kept weaker? If so thats what I'm saying, instead of trying to form, I think it should actually form by hour 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I deleted that post after you put your edit in. Fact of the matter is, you still asked "where did I say it?" despite the fact that where you said it was literally just quoted. I'm pretty much 1/2 asleep today, bro. I'm trying to wing it and it's not working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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