Ji Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 weeklies say we have to wait till about week 4 for PNA,-NAO and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 on long range calls particularly -- though really all of them -- i think people need a track record. there's plenty of dumb luck out there. he bought a fooking plow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 he bought a fooking plow do we have any photographic evidence? preferably with a newspaper and receipt both having a visible date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 2 years later? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=ImageFourPanel&prevPage=Paramℑ=&fcast=360&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=FOUR+PANEL+CHARTS&pname=200_wnd_ht%23500_vort_ht%231000_500_thick%23850_temp_ht&cycle=01%2F20%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=100&nextImage=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 2 years later? http://mag.ncep.noaa...0&nextImage=yes FWIW I kind of like that timeframe for a storm...2/5 to 2/10 range...maybe something smaller earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 not quite 2 yrs ago.. does look like a whole other winter from this one. if pattern look like that by then i could see a storm in that frame. not sold it will yet tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Very late January into early February continues to look threatening. The new ECMWF cuts off a block ~ day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 FWIW, Euro weeklies keep the Mid-Atlantic warm through week three, with neutral/slightly negative temps for the middle of the month as slightly above normal temps work a bit more into Greenland. Week two shows a cold dump from Alaska down into the Northwest and far northern Plains but doesn't take it any further than that as the rest of the country sees widespread aboves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 We got a 33% probability of a cold Feb given warm Nov, warm Dec, and warm Jan based on the last 60 years. Maybe we should start looking forward to March, atleast we can use the "we are due" argument given the last six March's have been duds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Euro still shows a decent -nao later in the 0z run but the -pna kinda messes up our pattern in the east. GFS picking up on rising heights over Greenland starting in about the same timeframe but then really cranks them later in the run. Nothing wrong with this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wow is all I can say on the 00Z GFS run of 200+hrs out thIs morning. Colder run then the last time I looked. Still far away in time, but this is the best I have seen so far this winter. Let's just keep the fingers crossed these runs only get colder and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Euro still shows a decent -nao later in the 0z run but the -pna kinda messes up our pattern in the east. GFS picking up on rising heights over Greenland starting in about the same timeframe but then really cranks them later in the run. Nothing wrong with this map. No, that map would work. If the -NAO is as strong as advertised there, we can deal with a -PNA with that big -EPO ridge. If the -NAO is weak or neutral, than a -PNA/-EPO pattern is a mild one probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Euro still shows a decent -nao later in the 0z run but the -pna kinda messes up our pattern in the east. GFS picking up on rising heights over Greenland starting in about the same timeframe but then really cranks them later in the run. Nothing wrong with this map. It's still tough to get a decent snowstorm in such a pattern. Only 16 of 71 four inch or greater events for DCA occurred with a negative PNA pattern and half of those occurred with a positive nao and half with a negative one. Now that I've finished publishing my article. Here's the stats with scatter diagrams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's still tough to get a decent snowstorm in such a pattern. Only 16 of 71 four inch or greater events for DCA occurred with a negative PNA pattern and half of those occurred with a positive nao and half with a negative one. Now that I've finished publishing my article. Here's the stats with scatter diagrams. I agree Wes. I'm just liking the overall look that seems to have decent consensus building for a -nao. It's not getting pushed back like we've seen all season. Both the gfs and euro are holding serve with building heights over greenland. Gotta start somewhere right? A -pna with a +nao is a heck of alot worse than a -nao. I think the odds at popping at least a transient +pna is pretty good during the first week of Feb. I said this in another post somewhere but when I lived in CO we always had 5-7 day breaks from storm cycles like the one we are seeing now out west. A big ridge typically builds before the next pac onslaught starts. Febs are great in the northern rockies during most Nina's. Big NW flow events that can put down fresh snow for 10 days straight at times. I think the timing of the current one is pretty good. The door may be open for a -nao/+pna combo during the first 10 days of next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I agree Wes. I'm just liking the overall look that seems to have decent consensus building for a -nao. It's not getting pushed back like we've seen all season. Both the gfs and euro are holding serve with building heights over greenland. Gotta start somewhere right? A -pna with a +nao is a heck of alot worse than a -nao. I think the odds at popping at least a transient +pna is pretty good during the first week of Feb. I said this in another post somewhere but when I lived in CO we always had 5-7 day breaks from storm cycles like the one we are seeing now out west. A big ridge typically builds before the next pac onslaught starts. Febs are great in the northern rockies during most Nina's. Big NW flow events that can put down fresh snow for 10 days straight at times. I think the timing of the current one is pretty good. The door may be open for a -nao/+pna combo during the first 10 days of next month. I alluded to that possibility in my last CWG pattern article that included the ao/pna scatter diagram. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 GEFS looks quite juicy with a nice big trough for the start of Feb. Now we just need to get the euro to move it a little further east as well and then we are in business. Surface temps definitely seem to be lagging in the gfs ensemble given the size of the trough...the operational shows the real face of surface temps (i.e. -20+ degree anomolies!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's still tough to get a decent snowstorm in such a pattern. Only 16 of 71 four inch or greater events for DCA occurred with a negative PNA pattern and half of those occurred with a positive nao and half with a negative one. Now that I've finished publishing my article. Here's the stats with scatter diagrams. depends on one's expectations I'm pretty sure any of us would take a 2-4 or 3-6" event that is 2-3" at DCA...there are plenty of nice storms that didn't make the 4" threshold at DCA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 depends on one's expectations I'm pretty sure any of us would take a 2-4 or 3-6" event that is 2-3" at DCA...there are plenty of nice storms that didn't make the 4" threshold at DCA.... I should do a similar plot for 1-3 inch events though it takes me several hours to collect the dat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 I should do a similar plot for 1-3 inch events though it takes me several hours to collect the dat. I'm going to take some time this weekend and look at other sites around the area for the analog nina years I pulled. DCA snow didn't look great at all (especially if you get rid of 96 and that is a good idea anyway). Nina climo definitely favors N&W of DC. I'd have assume that places like IAD, BWI, and FDK etc did better but how much I have no idea. There is no reason to totally discount the chance of a decent event in Feb. We've had a very long run of some really bad teleconnections so far. Even though Nina climo isn't friendly to the MA in Feb as a whole, we probably stand the best chance all year at lining up a decent large scale pattern. If not, bring on spring and rockfish season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I should do a similar plot for 1-3 inch events though it takes me several hours to collect the dat. I'm not sure the distribution would be much different, but the number of events would go way up obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm not sure the distribution would be much different, but the number of events would go way up obviously But it might be a little different and for sure the number of events would go up. Because of that, I'd probably try to look at a shorter time periods since I'm picking all the data off by hand and entering it into a spread sheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It doesn go out to Feb 1 but the 240 euro from this morning is butt ugly as the -pna forces a big ridge over he eastern half of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wes...I agree the Euro looked pretty rough at that time. On the other hand, 12z GFS ensemble mean looks absolutely gorgeous: http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH264.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wes...I agree the Euro looked pretty rough at that time. On the other hand, 12z GFS ensemble mean looks absolutely gorgeous: http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH264.gif I know it will be interesting to look at the euro ens mean when it come in. Last night it looked good in the atlantic and aweful in the pacific if i'm recalling what I looked at ealier correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 It doesn go out to Feb 1 but the 240 euro from this morning is butt ugly as the -pna forces a big ridge over he eastern half of the country. I saw that. Pretty much a 180 from the last 6 runs or so. 12z doesn't want to build any heights over greenland at all. Still a bit better in the atl than what we've seen. GFS is is quite different and holding on to the -nao and no big trough out west. We have 11 days before the end of the month so I guess time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 0z Euro ensemble mean at Day 10 is...fair. -EPO ridge over the Bering straight, which leads to a -PNA trough on the West Coast and essentially zonal flow across the CONUS. Ridging into Greenland is less impressive than what the GFS ensemble mean has been showing the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I should do a similar plot for 1-3 inch events though it takes me several hours to collect the dat. i have every event in a spreadsheet if you really want it maybe i'll sell it to you for cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 i have every event in a spreadsheet if you really want it maybe i'll sell it to you for cheap. I do to, it's the nao, pna, ao and enso states that I only have for the 4 inch or greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I do to, it's the nao, pna, ao and enso states that I only have for the 4 inch or greater. did you create it or get it from someone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 did you create it or get it from someone? I got the 1 inch or greater events from you and then created the 4 inch or greater and the pNA, nao and ao but only for the 4 inch or greater days as I did it all by hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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