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February Speculation Thread

Bob Chill

By Bob Chill,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

The entire winter has been a hurry up and wait while us MA winter enthusiasts cry in our cereal. It's been brutal so far. No way to sugar coat it or make lemonade out of lemons. The 2011-12 Dec - Jan period will be on alot of our sh!t lists for future reference.

Feb is fast approaching and I think there are enough encouraging signs showing up that it's thread worthy. Will we really get a productive pattern or will this winer go down as one of the bigger lame ducks of recent memory?

This Nina has been wacky to say the least. Not what any of us really expected so far. However, it has been pretty weak. I'm not sure what the NDJ or DJF tri-monthlies are going to check in at but I'm pretty sure we end up weak or barely moderate. I went ahead and pulled a Feb temp anom map for Nina years that had NDJ or DJF tri-monthlies at -1.0 or warmer and this is what it looks like:

Not bad huh?

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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At least it isn't filled with reds and oranges. It seems that we stand equal chances so while getting to clime will be tough we should not be totally shut out.

That's what I was thinking too. Nothing wrong with normal temps but plenty of cold air nearby. I'm looking forward to zwyts adding the Feb snow event history for those years. I've never found a good link to pull that data.

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WVclimo

WVclimo

Posted
Posted

That's what I was thinking too. Nothing wrong with normal temps but plenty of cold air nearby. I'm looking forward to zwyts adding the Feb snow event history for those years. I've never found a good link to pull that data.

LWX has the monthlies for all three airports: http://www.nws.noaa....ata.php?wfo=lwx

If you really wanna delve, go here: http://climate.usurf...oducts/data.php

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted

Hey! That's a great link. Big thanks!

Uhm I just looked through your entire analog set... and boy were they some terrible "snowstorms," especially in the earlier bunch of years. Terrible events like 3" on a day with a high in the 50's or 60's (so presumably after a cold front) that only leaves like 1" snow depth by the next morning kept on showing up. Almost all were rain-to-snow or snow-to-rain events. The only years that looked to have a good snow were 1975, 1996, and 2001. And 2001 is really just barely making the list.

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Ian

Ian

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Posted

DCA for those yrs.. nothing in 85.

2/7/1951 3

2/2/1955 0.4

2/11/1955 2.5

2/24/1955 1.3

2/5/1957 1

2/19/1957 0.6

2/24/1963 1.4

2/14/1965 1.9

2/9/1968 0.8

2/29-3/1/1968 2.6

2/2/1975 1.6

2/4-5/1975 4.2

2/2-3/1996 8.4

2/16/1996 6.8

2/20/2001 2.8

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted

DCA for those yrs.. nothing in 85.

2/7/1951 3

2/2/1955 0.4

2/11/1955 2.5

2/24/1955 1.3

2/5/1957 1

2/19/1957 0.6

2/24/1963 1.4

2/14/1965 1.9

2/9/1968 0.8

2/29-3/1/1968 2.6

2/2/1975 1.6

2/4-5/1975 4.2

2/20/2001 2.8

Did you on purpose leave out 1996 or was it your subconscious not allowing you to include it in this sad sad list?

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Ian

Ian

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Did you on purpose leave out 1996 or was it your subconscious not allowing you to include it in this sad sad list?

i needed to miss something so either you or matt could call me out for being dumb. ;)

added.

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Ian

Ian

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Ha! No, I really thought you were doing it on purpose because 1995/1996 is about as opposite an analog to this season as you can get. There was no point even looking back at it..

yeah.. it definitely doesnt fit with any of the others. bethesdaboy must be praying for it though...

i was just excited to finally use my snowstorm spreadsheet.. it took forever to make and i have not done anything with it. maybe i should just share it.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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DCA for those yrs.. nothing in 85.

2/7/1951 3

2/2/1955 0.4

2/11/1955 2.5

2/24/1955 1.3

2/5/1957 1

2/19/1957 0.6

2/24/1963 1.4

2/14/1965 1.9

2/9/1968 0.8

2/29-3/1/1968 2.6

2/2/1975 1.6

2/4-5/1975 4.2

2/2-3/1996 8.4

2/16/1996 6.8

2/20/2001 2.8

Well, in a "normal" winter we would look at that list and for the most part say it sucks......however, this winter? Better than anything we've seen this year so I'll take it!

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Fozz

Fozz

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DCA for those yrs.. nothing in 85.

2/7/1951 3

2/2/1955 0.4

2/11/1955 2.5

2/24/1955 1.3

2/5/1957 1

2/19/1957 0.6

2/24/1963 1.4

2/14/1965 1.9

2/9/1968 0.8

2/29-3/1/1968 2.6

2/2/1975 1.6

2/4-5/1975 4.2

2/2-3/1996 8.4

2/16/1996 6.8

2/20/2001 2.8

Not a single warning criteria event outside of 1996 :(

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

Uhm I just looked through your entire analog set... and boy were they some terrible "snowstorms," especially in the earlier bunch of years. Terrible events like 3" on a day with a high in the 50's or 60's (so presumably after a cold front) that only leaves like 1" snow depth by the next morning kept on showing up. Almost all were rain-to-snow or snow-to-rain events. The only years that looked to have a good snow were 1975, 1996, and 2001. And 2001 is really just barely making the list.

yeah...when I glanced at the list I wasn't impressed with the February's except 1996 of course and we had a quasi southern stream then..that wasn't really a Nina that acted like a Nina....even the map kind of tells the story of a storm track to the west...it is still a Nina configuration just a little colder.....If/when we get into a better pattern, I think we are still looking at mostly flawed events....but that is better than no events....so snow to rain, maybe some anafront snow, miller B's that clip us and clippers....

Blocking is certainly hugely important especially to get cold air down here.....but we still need help from the Pacific side in a Nina since we have such a strong northern stream....it is very hard to get some big overrunning event out of the tennessee valley or a low out of the gulf in a Nina...One way that it happened a lot in Ninas when we got big storms, was a split flow.....If you look at the KU book or old 500mb maps, you will see this configuration a lot in a Nina when we had bigger events....something happening in the Pacific split the flow...Usually a vortex or trough off the NW coast of the US.....the best example of this is January 2000....I think that was a rex signature?.....A blocking high over western Canada and a vortex to south of it so we had this massive -EPO ridge over AK and this counter clockwise rotation off the PAC NW coast...that gives us the best chance to get something bigger though there are other ways...

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BethesdaWX

BethesdaWX

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yeah...when I glanced at the list I wasn't impressed with the February's except 1996 of course and we had a quasi southern stream then..that wasn't really a Nina that acted like a Nina....even the map kind of tells the story of a storm track to the west...it is still a Nina configuration just a little colder.....If/when we get into a better pattern, I think we are still looking at mostly flawed events....but that is better than no events....so snow to rain, maybe some anafront snow, miller B's that clip us and clippers....

Blocking is certainly hugely important especially to get cold air down here.....but we still need help from the Pacific side in a Nina since we have such a strong northern stream....it is very hard to get some big overrunning event out of the tennessee valley or a low out of the gulf in a Nina...One way that it happened a lot in Ninas when we got big storms, was a split flow.....If you look at the KU book or old 500mb maps, you will see this configuration a lot in a Nina when we had bigger events....something happening in the Pacific split the flow...Usually a vortex or trough off the NW coast of the US.....the best example of this is January 2000....I think that was a rex signature?.....A blocking high over western Canada and a vortex to south of it so we had this massive -EPO ridge over AK and this counter clockwise rotation off the PAC NW coast...that gives us the best chance to get something bigger though there are other ways...

I believe we've had a so-so STJ at times this winter..not quite like 1995/96 but definitely up there in that analog list, unless I'm mis-analyzing something. All it'd take for us to get a 6-12" event in February is a well timed dip in the northern stream, but not so much that it'd phase too early and cut up the apps. Easiest way might be like a Great Lakes cutter w/ a wave riding up along the frontal boundary, or frontal interaction with the STJ down south, could do very well up here.

If I'm right about February, there could be storms phasing in the Ohio Valley as the -PNA ridge off the west coast evolves into a ridge along the west coast by the 7th. But with a mod -NAO rather than an overkill block, and adequate upward motion and moisture feed in the low and middle troposphere present in favored areas which lacked completely in 2010/11, shortwaves riding along frontal stagnant boundaries to the SE could be somewhat numerous, especially with an ok STJ present down south, for a Nina at least.

I feel pretty confident about this.

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
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I believe we've had a so-so STJ at times this winter..not quite like 1995/96 but definitely up there in that analog list, unless I'm mis-analyzing something. All it'd take for us to get a 6-12" event in February is a well timed dip in the northern stream, but not so much that it'd phase too early and cut up the apps. Easiest way might be like a Great Lakes cutter w/ a wave riding up along the frontal boundary, or frontal interaction with the STJ down south, could do very well up here.

If I'm right about February, there could be storms phasing in the Ohio Valley as the -PNA ridge off the west coast evolves into a ridge along the west coast by the 7th. But with a mod -NAO rather than an overkill block, and adequate upward motion and moisture feed in the low and middle troposphere present in favored areas which lacked completely in 2010/11, shortwaves riding along frontal stagnant boundaries to the SE could be somewhat numerous, especially with an ok STJ present down south, for a Nina at least.

I feel pretty confident about this.

These scenarios that you're describing sound like a long shot, so I'm not so sure how you're so confident that we'd get a major event.

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BethesdaWX

BethesdaWX

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These scenarios that you're describing sound like a long shot, so I'm not so sure how you're so confident that we'd get a major event.

Ordinarily they would be, usually February climo in a La nina never provides the adequate large scale pattern. This time I do not feel this will be the case, if I'm wrong I'll get pummeled. Lets see if the solar based method can come out on top.

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Ian

Ian

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Ordinarily they would be, usually February climo in a La nina never provides the adequate large scale pattern. This time I do not feel this will be the case, if I'm wrong I'll get pummeled. Lets see if the solar based method can come out on top.

It already seems like you've backed down considerably. A few weeks ago you were willing to make a 500k bet that Feb would see over 30" now you're talking about a 6-12" storm? Meh.

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Fozz

Fozz

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Ordinarily they would be, usually February climo in a La nina never provides the adequate large scale pattern. This time I do not feel this will be the case, if I'm wrong I'll get pummeled. Lets see if the solar based method can come out on top.

Will this "solar based method" lead to vital ingredients like a persistant -AO/NAO, favorable MJO phase, decent Pacific, and some of the other factors that are needed if you want to confidently predict a snowy February in a second year Nina?

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BethesdaWX

BethesdaWX

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Will this "solar based method" lead to vital ingredients like a persistant -AO/NAO, favorable MJO phase, decent Pacific, and some of the other factors that are needed if you want to confidently predict a snowy February?

Yes, it all operates through variations in atmospheric albedo and OHC distribution, which both pretty much represent the MJO, to a large extent. Initiator of change processes via the -AO, and a descending easterly shear zone in the -QBO, despite positive wind anoms in the lower levels from 10S to 20N in places, they have weakened.

I believe ENSO is caused by the Sun via the same magnetic mechanism, so I can attempt to predict how ENSO forcing will apply to the pattern without weighting it seperately.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
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BB is annoying, but I hope he verifies....even 10-15" and I will give him a bit of props

on long range calls particularly -- though really all of them -- i think people need a track record. there's plenty of dumb luck out there.

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