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1/19 Clipper OBS


earthlight

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if you go by how the radar is really blossoming around the tri state area it has a good chance to overperform. i cant really read into it but i agree with you.

Other then the OES, I don't think much more than flurries or a shower, as quickly as it blossomed its decreasing in intensity, we'll see, DP is pretty high.

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Left work 4:30 PM...went out to eat in Mt. Sinai...finished dinner about 6:45 PM...what do you know...some moderate snow showers moving through as I left restaurant...ground and parking lot snow covered...snow let up as I drove the short distance home...put 0.2" on the board out here...first measurable since March...

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Can you explain why a south wind today doesn't bode well for Saturday?

up to 38 now, just shows you how warm the ocean still is. We are going to have S/SE winds during the morning on Saturday also. The warming this will cause may be underestimated by the models. 18z NAM shows this well with temps into the upper 30s at JFK. Just think about it, I am up to 38 degrees with -8 at 850mb. Saturday we will be much warmer at 850mb, not even talking about the wind off the water.

18z NAM JFK:


Station ID: KJFK Lat:   40.63 Long:  -73.76													   
NAM Model Run: 18Z 19JAN 2012
 HR Valid	 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis
		    Deg F  Deg F   deg	  kt    in.   in.	 Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds	  in    SM
  0 01/19 18Z   32	 22	 117	   5    0.00  0.00    516    532  -11.4 -36.3 1020   0		  CLR	   0.0   15.1
  3 01/19 21Z   34	 25	 147	   8    0.00  0.00    519    534  -10.5 -34.3 1019  65	   049BKN236    0.0   15.0
  6 01/20 00Z   36	 29	 186	  13    0.00  0.00    522    536   -8.2 -32.9 1017 100	   033OVC249    0.0   15.1
  9 01/20 03Z   37	 29	 206	  13    0.00  0.00    523    536   -8.0 -30.7 1016 100	   028OVC234    0.0   15.3
 12 01/20 06Z   36	 31	 240	  17    0.00  0.00    522    535   -8.0 -30.9 1015 100 -SN   004OVC184    0.0   14.4
 15 01/20 09Z   34	 30	 262	  13    0.00  0.00    521    533  -10.2 -31.1 1015  97	   050BKN167    0.0   15.1
 18 01/20 12Z   31	 24	 314	  13    0.00  0.00    518    534  -12.7 -30.8 1019  12	   008FEW062    0.0   15.0
 21 01/20 15Z   28	 13	 321	  14    0.00  0.00    520    538  -13.7 -26.6 1023  10	   013FEW072    0.0   15.1
 24 01/20 18Z   29	 13	 315	  11    0.00  0.00    525    544  -12.9 -22.2 1024   9	   018FEW076    0.0   15.1
 27 01/20 21Z   30	 12	 309	   9    0.00  0.00    529    548  -11.6 -23.1 1024  26	   105SCT168    0.0   15.1
 30 01/21 00Z   30	 13	 323	   7    0.00  0.00    531    552  -10.2 -22.4 1026 100	   186OVC329    0.0   15.0
 33 01/21 03Z   31	 15	  20	   4    0.00  0.00    532    553   -7.5 -21.5 1026 100	   088OVC295    0.0   15.1
 36 01/21 06Z   31	 16	  98	   6    0.00  0.00    534    553   -6.5 -21.2 1024 100	   053OVC287    0.0   15.1
 39 01/21 09Z   33	 21	 114	   9    0.00  0.00    535    553   -7.2 -21.4 1022 100	   040OVC212    0.0   15.1
 42 01/21 12Z   34	 31	 133	  10    0.04  0.00    539    554   -3.5 -20.5 1019 100 -RA   000OVC330    0.3    5.6
 45 01/21 15Z   37	 36	  92	  10    0.21  0.00    543    555    1.0 -20.2 1015 100 RA    000OVC333    0.9    2.5
 48 01/21 18Z   36	 35	  30	  12    0.28  0.00    545    554    1.0 -20.7 1011 100 -RA   000OVC311    0.0   13.2
 51 01/21 21Z   30	 28	 358	  14    0.01  0.00    543    554    4.0 -22.3 1014 100	   000OVC030    0.0   13.5
 54 01/22 00Z   29	 27	   2	  14    0.00  0.00    541    557    2.7 -21.2 1020 100	   000OVC029    0.0   15.1
 57 01/22 03Z   28	 26	  17	  13    0.00  0.00    541    560    2.0 -19.6 1023  88	   008BKN023    0.0   15.1
 60 01/22 06Z   27	 24	  21	  12    0.00  0.00    542    562    1.4 -18.8 1026  58	   027BKN039    0.0   15.2
 63 01/22 09Z   26	 23	  30	  13    0.00  0.00    542    563    1.1 -17.7 1027  47	   113SCT125    0.0   15.8
 66 01/22 12Z   27	 24	  49	  12    0.00  0.00    543    566    1.9 -17.6 1029  50	   089SCT096    0.0   15.6
 69 01/22 15Z   29	 26	  56	  10    0.00  0.00    543    568    1.4 -17.2 1032  87	   000BKN021    0.0    9.6
 72 01/22 18Z   32	 29	  66	  11    0.00  0.00    545    569    2.2 -16.7 1031 100	   000OVC028    0.0   14.1
 75 01/22 21Z   35	 33	  71	  13    0.01  0.00    546    570    2.5 -16.0 1030 100	   000OVC328    0.0   11.9
 78 01/23 00Z   37	 35	  84	  16    0.01  0.00    548    571    3.4 -15.2 1029 100	   000OVC343    0.0   14.8
 81 01/23 03Z   38	 37	  84	  15    0.00  0.00    549    572    3.5 -14.1 1028 100	   000OVC228    0.0   15.0
 84 01/23 06Z   40	 38	  81	  15    0.05  0.00    550    570    6.2 -13.4 1025 100 -RA   000OVC119    0.0    6.1

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The NAM is not correctly grasping the evaporative cooling though, assumimg the snow does not arrive til 10Z, the spread is 33/21, we'd proably drop to 29 or so and the snow would overcome any BL cooling that might occur in the light S-SE flow. Also, the snow is likely to come way earlier than the NAM currently shows, its always a slow model to start with and these events are usually early too.

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The NAM is not correctly grasping the evaporative cooling though, assumimg the snow does not arrive til 10Z, the spread is 33/21, we'd proably drop to 29 or so and the snow would overcome any BL cooling that might occur in the light S-SE flow. Also, the snow is likely to come way earlier than the NAM currently shows, its always a slow model to start with and these events are usually early too.

I am 38/28, thats a wetbulb of around 34.

Edit: O I see you are talking about the saturday event, I am talking about tonight and releating it to saturday. As long as the wind stays more ENE, you are correct. However a south wind will rapidly increase the temps and dews as it is doing tonight especially along the coast.

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Hey everyone! We had a good 3/10ths of an inch before here in the Stony Brook area from those ocean/sound enhanced snow showers. Cars and roads were completely covered and they got slick in a hurry! Was coming home and saw three quick accidents (spin outs off the road)...so I already nearly got my half inch for tonight with tonight's "main event" still on its way. As much as I loved the milder winter weather, I missed this snow excitement! ...even if it's not that big of a deal... :)

T: 31F

Wind Calm

3/10ths" Fresh Snow

Currently: Flurries

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Left work 4:30 PM...went out to eat in Mt. Sinai...finished dinner about 6:45 PM...what do you know...some moderate snow showers moving through as I left restaurant...ground and parking lot snow covered...snow let up as I drove the short distance home...put 0.2" on the board out here...first measurable since March...

Gee, I waited ten months for this...and I had my head in a plate of veal parmigana while it should have been out the front window...

<wonders if that will be it...but glad shutout for season was avoided...btw...was really closer to 0.25"...but I rounded down>

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