Hailstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 And tonight's nam run will slice amounts in half leading to widespread panic Then Noreaster27 will be like "told you guys to never underestimate se winds / ridge." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks like a general 2-4 inches of snow for NYC and most of LI, hope it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 3-6 is a good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Euro has been locked in with .30" to .40" for 2 days. Unless it increases at 12z or 0z, ignore all other models. There is always a last minute move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 3-6 is a good call I would be worried for your spot on the ocean. I don't think more than 3 for u. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I would be worried for your spot on the ocean. I don't think more than 3 for u. Ugh, bad news for me too since I live 3 blocks north of him. Maybe I will get 0.04" more though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The best thing about this is that the air will be 22-27 when the snow gets here after midnight. It will stick to everything almost instantly. Spot on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 346 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012 ...SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... .LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL PREDOMINANTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS SATURDAY EVENING. FOR A PORTION OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND A GOOD CHUNK OF NEW JERSEY...SNOW WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEFORE IT CHANGES TO ALL RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...AS WELL AS A COATING OF ICE...IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. NJZ007-008-PAZ061-062-202215- /O.EXA.KPHI.WS.A.0001.120121T0600Z-120122T0000Z/ WARREN-MORRIS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...ALLENTOWN... BETHLEHEM...EASTON 346 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * TIMING....SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...FALLING WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 And tonight's nam run will slice amounts in half leading to widespread panic Does always seem to happen like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Dewpoints have been dropping these past few hours as the dry air continues to move in from the north. Could have some hours of virga late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Starting to wonder if there's a freezing rain threat for parts of the Jersey shore and coastal Long Island toward the end of the event. Sfc temps never really get above freezing because of NE surface winds, and the 850mb warm nose crosses over, albeit briefly on the NAM and even GFS. The warm layer isn't too far above ground and it might still be precipitating by then. It wouldn't obviously be a major ice storm but 0.10-0.25" can still cause major problems. On top of several inches of snow. My guess right now would be 5-7" from the GWB on northwest, 3-5" (snow to sleet) for the I-78 corridor and northern half of Long Island, and 2-4" (snow to sleet/freezing rain) southern Long Island and I-78 to I-195. 1-2" south of there, snow to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Dewpoints have been dropping these past few hours as the dry air continues to move in from the north. Could have some hours of virga late tonight. that looks pretty likely right now. With .25 to .50 liquid, 2-4 inches looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Srefs nice and cold at 850 and surface throughout the event looks like .3 to . 4 liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Losing QPF to virga will be our biggest concern with this storm, not mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Losing QPF to virga will be our biggest concern with this storm, not mixing. SWFE means the atmosphere will moisten quickly, dont worry about that, trust me In other news, maybe a banding/csi signal nothern jersey maybe skirting the city at the height of the storm? will have to watch where that sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 SWFE means the atmosphere will moisten quickly, dont worry about that, trust me In other news, maybe a banding/csi signal nothern jersey maybe skirting the city at the height of the storm? will have to watch where that sets up Awesome I hope, how much snow you end up with last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Awesome I hope, how much snow you end up with last night? Less than a dusting, a smidgen too far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Checked out Upton's accumulations map. Do not expect to see such a jump in expected accumulations. The gradient is scary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 SWFE means the atmosphere will moisten quickly, dont worry about that, trust me In other news, maybe a banding/csi signal nothern jersey maybe skirting the city at the height of the storm? will have to watch where that sets up Hoping that late tonight we can see the snow come in as a wall, not broken up/showery. That way we can moisten it up fast and put down some accums quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hoping that late tonight we can see the snow come in as a wall, not broken up/showery. That way we can moisten it up fast and put down some accums quick. Well, these things usually rip from the get go but with these swfe you see the shower broken precip just to the south of the rain/snow line so people are gonna go a little batty I am sure. When everything is locked in on .3 to .4 and the euro hasnt budged in 4 runs, everyone should feel pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 srefs keep the city frozen at all levels, including the surface, the entire event. The .50" line is touching Brooklyn. So its safe to assume, the city gets about .45" of qpf. A solid 4"-6" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 You can already see the 12z NAM is a little colder and south at hour 21, compared to 6z. Snow hits our area at 3am-4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Don't models account for virga? Tired of these classic anti-snow posts coming out of the woodwork especially from the usual suspects. You have a sad life if you need to find an angle to downplay an already paltry event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Checked out Upton's accumulations map. Do not expect to see such a jump in expected accumulations. The gradient is scary! a bit skwed as the lesser totals are out over the ocean....other that far eastern LI-they have b/w 4-5.6 inches for just about everyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 12z NAM rolling in cold so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 woops, wrong sounding, thought that looked funny, ignore that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Also, John Bolaris is the greatest meteorologist of our time. http://gawker.com/5875492/real+life-the-hangover-destroys-horny-philadelphia-weather-mans-life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 here you go, 12z + 18 hours mid level 700 saturated so now snow eaters, and the surface will follow quickly. Dont worry about virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 At hour 24, 12z NAM warms a little. Warmer then 6z at hour 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well, these things usually rip from the get go but with these swfe you see the shower broken precip just to the south of the rain/snow line so people are gonna go a little batty I am sure. When everything is locked in on .3 to .4 and the euro hasnt budged in 4 runs, everyone should feel pretty good. NAM still concerns me, but it might be a bit overdone on the precip and dynamics at play, and warming. The north bump at the end that usually occurs on these is still a little worrisome. I don't think it plain-rains at least north past southern Monmouth. I think there's at least a chance of a freezing rain/ice zone somewhere in between where it's all snow and eventually goes to rain. I agree-several inches of snow this winter anywhere is a god send. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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