blizzardof09 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 sweet nam run, first run at HPN where the 850 is below 0 the entire run, it went from .3 at 18z, to 0 at 00z, and now its -.4 at its warmest improved lift too! Higher snowfall totals/intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 anyone notice that some are under watches, not an advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Never really worry about surface temps for this event, its the 750-880mb layer that needs to be watched as well as obs along the same latitude as the NYC area late tomorrow aftn and evening to the west. If you see PL or ZR in areas that should have been snow then you know we could be in trouble. This scared alot of people in the 12/19/08 event when Chicago had ZR and PL the night before when they were supposed to see snow, however what everyone missed was that the wave was significantly dampening out as it came east and the WAA weakened. This event is doing a bit of the same but to a lesser extent, the key is to watch Cleveland and locales north of Pittsburgh in the early evening tonight, if we're seeing sleet or freezing rain in those places we may have a problem. Good analysis! NYC's climo snowfall average at this time of year is 8 inches; we have about 3 inches so far this season. In your opinion, what are the odds that NYC exceeds that average from this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Please stop this will be one come Monday afternoon as it gets washed away. Does anyone know there is a lakes cutter with 50 degree temp and SSE winds 48 hours later with +7c to +8C 850's. Let's just get this winter over with and place it in the porcelain prince with the donut shaped seat over it and let's just jiggle the handle already. I hate to even joke about such a thing, but it's becoming clear to me that you are unstable. You are usually mr optimism when no such faith Is even warranted, and now with a nice little event on the horizon, you turn your attention to Monday? Do us all a favor and keep your inner demons to yourself. Let the more seasoned folks (not me) discuss our weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 3z srefs increased probabilities big time. Near 100% of 1"+ for NYC now and the 4" probabilities increased to near 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Good analysis! NYC's climo snowfall average at this time of year is 8 inches; we have about 3 inches so far this season. In your opinion, what are the odds that NYC exceeds that average from this storm? The normal year to date is 9.3" at the Park and 10.0" at LGA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Guys, There is a banter thread. Had to go through way too many posts that had nothing to do with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The normal year to date is 9.3" at the Park and 10.0" at LGA... Oops. Sorry. Thanks for correcting me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Watches for NE NJ, SE NY and just Fairfield Cty for some reason.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Good analysis! NYC's climo snowfall average at this time of year is 8 inches; we have about 3 inches so far this season. In your opinion, what are the odds that NYC exceeds that average from this storm? 55% would be my guess at 5 inches for NYC. I definitely deducted a bit for the usual iffy measuring we see. Its also a question of whether or not "the rounder" will be on shift tomorrow, the guy or girl who always reports amounts in half-inch increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Send in the clowns... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Watches for NE NJ, SE NY and just Fairfield Cty for some reason.... I have a feeling Upton may expand the watches or warnings to NYC proper this afternoon if the 12z GFS comes in as wet as the 6z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Watches for NE NJ, SE NY and just Fairfield Cty for some reason.... it wasnt to make the map prettier, there is a reason, the ratios are going to be better north of the city combined with good snow growth and a slight uptick in the qpf of the gfs and nam over night. Plus, the lift has improved as well, so meeting the 6 inch mark is a possibility and thus the watch. Dont worry, we all know when you only get 5.5 inches you will be screaming bust everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Model concensus is for .25" to .50" of precip. That's a 3"-6" event. WWA criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I have a feeling Upton may expand the watches or warnings to NYC proper this afternoon if the 12z GFS comes in as wet as the 6z NAM. There would need to be serious agreement on the 12Z models for that. Remember the 18Z NAM the day prior to an event almost always goes crazy on QPF, so if the 12Z NAM does not the 18 very likely will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 it wasnt to make the map prettier, there is a reason, the ratios are going to be better north of the city combined with good snow growth and a slight uptick in the qpf of the gfs and nam over night. Plus, the lift has improved as well, so meeting the 6 inch mark is a possibility and thus the watch. Dont worry, we all know when you only get 5.5 inches you will be screaming bust everywhere. Criteria for average for a watch/warning is 6". In the "watched" counties, they're calling for an inch more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That so called "clown map" I posted has much of the area under 4 inches...and the WRF...even on its most accurate days...and it *can* be very accurate from time to time...usually tacks on an inch or more snow than will likely fall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Criteria for average for a watch/warning is 6". In the "watched" counties, they're calling for an inch more. well, that says it all. Either way, its a smart move given how little it has snowed and how people may not be on their toes and the overnight runs def. look like the warning criteria can be met. Brian will still be calling bust when he wakes up no matter what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 With the extra over LI I'm guessing it takes into account last night as well? [ That so called "clown map" I posted has much of the area under 4 inches...and the WRF...even on its most accurate days...and it *can* be very accurate from time to time...usually tacks on an inch or more snow than will likely fall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 There would need to be serious agreement on the 12Z models for that. Remember the 18Z NAM the day prior to an event almost always goes crazy on QPF, so if the 12Z NAM does not the 18 very likely will. That's very true; but the 0z NMM-ARW models also agreed with the 6z NAM, unless those 3 models are related to each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 And tonight's nam run will slice amounts in half leading to widespread panic There would need to be serious agreement on the 12Z models for that. Remember the 18Z NAM the day prior to an event almost always goes crazy on QPF, so if the 12Z NAM does not the 18 very likely will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That's very true; but the 0z NMM-ARW models also agreed with the 6z NAM, unless those 3 models are related to each other. They are related to each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 And tonight's nam run will slice amounts in half leading to widespread panic Euro has been locked in with .30" to .40" for 2 days. Unless it increases at 12z or 0z, ignore all other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 For once everyone's in a good mood! Let's enjoy some snow guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 With the extra over LI I'm guessing it takes into account last night as well? [ No..because the same maps through 12 hours (7:00 AM today) had nothing over LI...which was by and large right save for a few spots....<not going to post the 12 hour map as would likely lead to confusion / panic> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 3z srefs increased probabilities big time. Near 100% of 1"+ for NYC now and the 4" probabilities increased to near 50%. Yeah, it also brings IMBY in C NJ into the 95-100% chance for an inch or higher for Saturday as well, as well as a near 50% chance of 4 inches or more. If that were to happen, WSWs would need to be extended as far south as Mercer County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 All NYC stations have dropped 4-5 degrees in the past hour to 26-27 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The best thing about this is that the air will be 22-27 when the snow gets here after midnight. It will stick to everything almost instantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 All NYC stations have dropped 4-5 degrees in the past hour to 26-27 degrees. At least ground temps will be cold and our snow will stick from the outset. Can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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