bmc10 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The SREF was also wetter with 0.5 touching KNYC... I like these setups to produce a decent amount of precip. We tend to get good lift/dynamics during these setups with the strong thermal gradient which can help enhance qpf amounts. That is why I think a general .4-.7 is a safe bet. I would not be surprised to see a widespread 3-6 event including NYC unfold with localized amounts of 6-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 looks like sleet though for S LI by 36 and 39?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NWS went with a 3-5 inch advisory for the city and eastward... Watch just to the north... I would have included the city in the watch based on what i'm seeing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NWS went with a 3-5 inch advisory for the city and eastward... Watch just to the north... I would have included the city in the watch based on what i'm seeing... LOL WWA for 4-6 yet a WSW for 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The Bronx is the furthest north county that far west in Upton's zone with an advisory and not a watch. I could travel 1 mile to my north and get a watch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I know it will never be considered, but it would probably be a prudent idea to change watch/warning criterion from 6" to 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Surised the major news outlets are sill going for 1-3 for city/coast... CYA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Surised the major news outlets are sill going for 1-3 for city/coast... CYA? If it ends up higher, it wont be by a tremendous amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 If it ends up higher, it wont be by a tremendous amount. You have 6z rgem snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Surised the major news outlets are sill going for 1-3 for city/coast... CYA? Which media outlets are saying that now? I bet one of them is Mike Woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I know it will never be considered, but it would probably be a prudent idea to change watch/warning criterion from 6" to 8". If this winter (doubtful) and the following couple of winters become anything like the last 2 winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11 for NYC, Upton should consider doing that based a trending medium-term average. The advisory criterion should also be raised from 3" to 4" if they do decide on this proposal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Gfs slightly wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 You have 6z rgem snowfall? From everything I see, the model run has been at least delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Gfs slightly wetter. And slightly warmer by the coast by the smallest of margins http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/model_loops/06zgfs_namer_pcp.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Gfs slightly wetter. qpf looks the same to me from the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Surface is warmer as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Surface is warmer as well Dude its by like a degree not even,calmdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Which media outlets are saying that now? I bet one of them is Mike Woods. 1010 wins and channel 7 both in-accuweather. I like 7 because of lee goldberg and 880 usually but it was static before for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Dude its by like a degree not even,calmdown. I am completely calm lol..just reporting what I see. I wasn't lying or embellishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Crazy 84 hours ahead, first a 3-6 inch snowfall Saturday morning, and then a 50 degree rain with 20-30 mph SSE winds to wash it all away Monday. Wild roller coaster ride ahead, check your underwear at the end of the ride. We get snow and it is taken away 36 hours later, winter 2011-2012 style, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 1010 wins and channel 7 both in-accuweather. I like 7 because of lee goldberg and 880 usually but it was static before for some reason. Bill Evans from channel 7 is calling for only 1-3" in NYC when the rest of the TV mets are calling for 3-5." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Bill Evans from channel 7 is calling for only 1-3" in NYC when the rest of the TV mets are calling for 3-5." Please stop this will be one come Monday afternoon as it gets washed away. Does anyone know there is a lakes cutter with 50 degree temp and SSE winds 48 hours later with +7c to +8C 850's. Let's just get this winter over with and place it in the porcelain prince with the donut shaped seat over it and let's just jiggle the handle already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Upton is calling for 3-5 inches for Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The Nam is much wetter than the GFS but also a little warmer. 2-5 inches is a good bet right now for the area unless the models start trending wetter towards the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Dude its by like a degree not even,calmdown. Never really worry about surface temps for this event, its the 750-880mb layer that needs to be watched as well as obs along the same latitude as the NYC area late tomorrow aftn and evening to the west. If you see PL or ZR in areas that should have been snow then you know we could be in trouble. This scared alot of people in the 12/19/08 event when Chicago had ZR and PL the night before when they were supposed to see snow, however what everyone missed was that the wave was significantly dampening out as it came east and the WAA weakened. This event is doing a bit of the same but to a lesser extent, the key is to watch Cleveland and locales north of Pittsburgh in the early evening tonight, if we're seeing sleet or freezing rain in those places we may have a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Game on 5 inches is a nice hit for sure, if we indeed get that much in such a crappy pattern, take it and run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Game on In this winter that is a total hecs. Like neblizzard said id take that and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 sweet nam run, first run at HPN where the 850 is below 0 the entire run, it went from .3 at 18z, to 0 at 00z, and now its -.4 at its warmest improved lift too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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