dbc Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Very high ratios do occur and can occur here. But I don't believe it's very common to exceed 15:1 due to our latitude and proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. Of course I agree with you on that totally. Just saying it can happen but you are right it is quite rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Oh don't get me wrong I am not expecting that with this storm, just that in general it can happen. eduugs was stating that he has seen studies that shows we do not get beyond 15-1 so I was just showing that the study may be inaccurate and greater than 15-1 ratios have happened before in this area. I was living right on the Hudson river in Jersey City at that time and I measured 14 inches and we certainly didn't exceed .9-1 inches of qpf on that one from what I recall. That storm, "blizzard of 2005", was going to put as much as 3 feet of snow for us, only it ticked north and slammed SNE and Boston with 30+ amounts... Yeah, the snow was very powdery from that one for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thanks I do have this on my list of references. I can tell you we havent observed anything higher than 20:1 in our dataset the last 2 years. The one time we measured that was during a very cold, dry light snow event. Here is a paper from a few years ago in AMS. http://journals.amet...0.1175/WAF903.1 This is not what I was referring to. What I remember reading was something more regionally based - possibility out of a climate center at Cornell. But there are some cool histograms in the paper. Low density snowfall does occur, but rarely during high precip events. And even at Albany, a significant majority of snowfall events exhibited average ratios below 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thanks I do have this on my list of references. I can tell you we havent observed anything higher than 20:1 in our dataset the last 2 years. The one time we measured that was during a very cold, dry light snow event. The last 20:1 event has to be January 15, 2004... It was in the single digits when that started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That storm, "blizzard of 2005", was going to put as much as 3 feet of snow for us, only it ticked north and slammed SNE and Boston with 30+ amounts... Yeah, the snow was very powdery from that one for sure. It was the most podwery snow I had ever seen in New Jersey. Ice Crystals glistened in the snow the night of the 23rd like I had never seen before. No melting occurred after the snow ended on the 23rd as it was bitterly cold 9 degrees by 10pm and that is exactly when I went for alittle jebwalk and saw the glistening powder. You know the snow we get on Saturday will be almost 7 years to the day of the 2005 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 both high resolution ncep models look great, for whatever it's worth http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/COMPRAD4_0z/cld35.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That storm, "blizzard of 2005", was going to put as much as 3 feet of snow for us, only it ticked north and slammed SNE and Boston with 30+ amounts... Yeah, the snow was very powdery from that one for sure. Gave me 5" in State College when the dry slot became way bigger and further north than modeled. I was supposed to get 12-15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thanks I do have this on my list of references. I can tell you we havent observed anything higher than 20:1 in our dataset the last 2 years. The one time we measured that was during a very cold, dry light snow event. It sounds like a very interesting area to research. Definitely a fun project if you're really into nearly abstract meteorology and data analysis. If I come up with the reference I will let you know. But I can't imagine I've read something you haven't. And I might be casually misrepresenting it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It was the most podwery snow I had ever seen in New Jersey. Ice Crystals glistened in the snow the night of the 23rd like I had never seen before. No melting occurred after the snow ended on the 23rd as it was bitterly cold 9 degrees by 10pm and that is exactly when I went for alittle jebwalk and saw the glistening powder. You know the snow we get on Saturday will be almost 7 years to the day of the 2005 storm. I could see my hand through 7" of powder at Jay Peak on New Years eve about a decade ago. That must have been at least 50:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The last 20:1 event has to be January 15, 2004... It was in the single digits when that started. That's right I forgot about that one! We easliy hit 18-1 on that one in Jersey City. Similar storm almost exactly a year before the January 22, 2005 storm. I also observed similar powdery ice glistened snows during my jebwalk for that storm as well. Went out for that one around 10pm for that jebwalk as well and observed exactly what I observed in Jan 2005. Temperature was 1 degree the night after the 2004 storm ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 both high resolution ncep models look great, for whatever it's worth http://www.meteo.psu...D4_0z/cld35.gif I'm not sure I want snow to Cape May or even Atlantic City. But I guess I'll sign onto a weak suppressed solution if it makes the coastal dwellers happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I could see my hand through 7" of powder at Jay Peak on New Years eve about a decade ago. That must have been at least 50:1. That must have been insane to experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 MOS graphics show 5.8 inches in NYC. Like some of the high-res models, that is likely a bit much as it predicts nearly 0.7 inches of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Very high ratios do occur and can occur here. But I don't believe it's very common to exceed 15:1 due to our latitude and proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. Jan 15, 2004 was the king of high ratio snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Any Euro news yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That's right I forgot about that one! We easliy hit 18-1 on that one in Jersey City. Similar storm almost exactly a year before the January 22, 2005 storm. I also observed similar powdery ice glistened snows during my jebwalk for that storm as well. Went out for that one around 10pm for that jebwalk as well and observed exactly what I observed in Jan 2005. Temperature was 1 degree the night after the 2004 storm ended. Yeah, the morning of the '04 storm was frigid and the snow was very powdery, it was the finest snow I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 MOS graphics show 5.8 inches in NYC. Like some of the high-res models, that is likely a bit much as it predicts nearly 0.7 inches of precip. They always overdo QPF. Same with Boxing Day, however, they got that one right; and Jan 26-27th, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Euro looks the same as every other model..pretty much identical to its 12z run. Maybe a little faster with start/end of precip. Similar totals and temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Euro looks the same as every other model..pretty much identical to its 12z run. Maybe a little faster with start/end of precip. Similar totals and temps. Thanks! I was wondering if the lack of info was bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I think we can in the nyc area expect 2-4" on a lesser range, and 3-6" on a higher range especially if the 00z NAM verifies. Snow nonetheless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Euro looks the same as every other model..pretty much identical to its 12z run. Maybe a little faster with start/end of precip. Similar totals and temps. Is the 850 thickness any further south than 12z run? New England thread says its a tick south from 12z. That could mean big difference down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 European Computer Model info: by 30 hours 540 line is slightly north of KPIT heads SE then runs east to SE across the SNJ tip. QPF .01-.10 thru east and central PA all but extreme SE PA. Heaviest is across North Central and West Central and Western Pa which is .10-.25..across N Ohio is .25-.50 however. Temperatures at 30: temperatures below freezing except LI is 30-35.. At 36 hours..540 line has moved slightly north with it now across KPHL and across central NJ. QPF the .10-.25 into Northern half of new Jersey drawing a line at midpoint of the state...this stretches into NC NY and western CT and West MASS..on the outer fringes of that going north is .01-.10. From Extreme NW NJ thru all of the Northern Tier of PA from ABE north and drawing a line to the west southwest towards KPIT (but not quite reaching there) and then North of that line (outside of NW PA as well) is .25-.50..Temperatures below freezing all but LI...which is 30-35. 42 hours..540 line just south of ABE and rides NE across NC NJ across LI. back WSW to KPIT. QPF across all of NJ into eastern PA and into all of SNE is .10-.25.. west of there is .01-.10 as well as into Northern NY and Central NY and VT,NH and Southern Maine. These latter locations are only brushed..very light QPF overall. Temperatures at 42 hours :Southern tier of PA 30-35 that goes across central NJ and south as well as NYC and LI..all other areas north below freezing... Using accu pro images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 6z NAM QPF bomb.(to an extent) EDIT: Full QPF bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 6z NAM QPF bomb.(to an extent) Yep really amps up the shortwave and as a result the qpf increases. Also the more definitive lp allows for a warmer solution as we get some waa. Still this solution is mainly if not all snow for NYC. I would love to see a wetter solution like this, could result in 4+ inches from NYC north. Such a solution however would be less favorable for coastal areas. Verbatim the 6z NAM is probably a 5-9 inch type deal for NNJ. Nothing to sneeze at, especially during this horrendous winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 just for fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 For what it's worth, sounding has two layers at 0.4 in KNYC at 36 hrs... That's the warmest it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yep really amps up the shortwave and as a result the qpf increases. Also the more definitive lp allows for a warmer solution as we get some waa. Still this solution is mainly if not all snow for NYC. I would love to see a wetter solution like this, could result in 4+ inches from NYC north. Such a solution however would be less favorable for coastal areas. Verbatim the 6z NAM is probably a 5-9 inch type deal for NNJ. Nothing to sneeze at, especially during this horrendous winter. If thats all snow its 6-10" But it is 6z NAM (known forQPF bombs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 For what it's worth, sounding has two layers at 0.4 in KNYC at 36 hrs... That's the warmest it gets. Most likely would still be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The SREF was also wetter with 0.5 touching KNYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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