psv88 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Kids, this is what years of snowstorm tracking will do to you. Yea here is what it does. Makes me slack off during the day, so i have to work until 11 pm, piss of my fiance, not eat dinner and go to bed pissed off. But theres no way in hell ill stop doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I will inform everyone at CVS that a snowstorm is on the way, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 How much for Philly? No, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Snow amounts keep getting cut down in NYC on the GFS/NAM snow maps, despite the appearance of all snow precipitation (at least on the GFS, the NAM is a good amount of sleet). The 4 inch mark seemingly pulls up as it approaches Manhattan from the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Dont even worry about what those maps show. They are unreliable. Snow amounts keep getting cut down in NYC on the GFS/NAM snow maps, despite the appearance of all snow precipitation. The 4 inch mark seemingly pulls up as it approaches Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Northern Monmouth County ends up with sleet on most model runs. Don't worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm not in love with the 0z GFS. I will surely enjoy a few inches of fluffy snow if it comes to pass, but I was hoping for a bit more QPF. There is a barely perceptible mid-level trough, for example at 700mb and 850mb. The precipitation is driven almost entirely by modest isentropic upglide. And even the duration is limited. It would be all snow for a change, which is nice, but it caps an upper limit fairly low. I think we have margin to warm and wetten things up without mixing. Even the very warm 18z NAM offered mostly snow north of NYC IMO. And it even nearly closed off a low at 850mb. We're not going to get amazing ratios regardless with relatively warm 700mb temps. I think we would be better off with a more pronounced mid-level wave, borderline mid-level temps, and a cold surface. That would at least introduce the remote possibility of warning level snows. But then again in this winter that is playing with fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 A week ago folks were talking about a major torch for next week with temps in the 60's to perhaps around 70 with hardly any hope for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Northern Monmouth County ends up with sleet on most model runs. Don't worry about it. Yes, I'll take my 1" of slop and sleet and call it pay back for feb 5 - 6, 2010. We really do quite poorly in SWFE regardless of model output down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I see soundings up by you that tell me higher ratio snows are possible. Take what you can get though. The models always waiver on QPF. nothing to ride your hat on I'm not in love with the 0z GFS. I will surely enjoy a few inches of fluffy snow if it comes to pass, but I was hoping for a bit more QPF. There is a barely perceptible mid-level trough, for example at 700mb and 850mb. The precipitation is driven almost entirely by modest isentropic upglide. And even the duration is limited. It would be all snow for a change, which is nice, but it caps an upper limit fairly low. I think we have margin to warm and wetten things up without mixing. Even the very warm 18z NAM offered mostly snow north of NYC IMO. And it even nearly closed off a low at 850mb. We're not going to get amazing ratios regardless with relatively warm 700mb temps. I think we would be better off with a more pronounced mid-level wave, borderline mid-level temps, and a cold surface. That would at least introduce the remote possibility of warning level snows. But then again in this winter that is playing with fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 http://www.emc.ncep....animate_1h.html http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/nmmwrf.t2m_animate_1h.html (temps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 How much for Philly? No, really. 1.5"-2" per Mt holly accumulation map. I think how much snow we can squeeze in the first thump before the mixover is the big question...next big question is can the all rain line stay just SE of I-295. Wouldn't even want to bet house money on it at this point, but at least in the game until guidance says otherwise. You're in my neck of the woods, and I'll probably be up in New Brunswick area for work Saturday morning so I'm stealing your snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I see soundings up by you that tell me higher ratio snows are possible. Take what you can get though. The models always waiver on QPF. nothing to ride your hat on That's an interesting idiom. Did anyone around LI get genuine measurable snow so far tonight and if so, how much? Just flurries here...looks like the IMBY record for winter futility will be broken (we've got about 23 minutes to tie and it isn't looking good). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I know someone in Jamesport on the north shore with accumulating snowfall. Thats all I have heard so far. quote name='NorthShoreWx' timestamp='1327034339' post='1296794'] That's an interesting idiom. Did anyone around LI get genuine measurable snow so far tonight and if so, how much? Just flurries here...looks like the IMBY record for winter futility will be broken (we've got about 23 minutes to tie and it isn't looking good). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 00Z GGEM is quite similar to the previous run at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 GGEM comes in a little drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm not in love with the 0z GFS. I will surely enjoy a few inches of fluffy snow if it comes to pass, but I was hoping for a bit more QPF. There is a barely perceptible mid-level trough, for example at 700mb and 850mb. The precipitation is driven almost entirely by modest isentropic upglide. And even the duration is limited. It would be all snow for a change, which is nice, but it caps an upper limit fairly low. I think we have margin to warm and wetten things up without mixing. Even the very warm 18z NAM offered mostly snow north of NYC IMO. And it even nearly closed off a low at 850mb. We're not going to get amazing ratios regardless with relatively warm 700mb temps. I think we would be better off with a more pronounced mid-level wave, borderline mid-level temps, and a cold surface. That would at least introduce the remote possibility of warning level snows. But then again in this winter that is playing with fire. No-siree. I'll take the few inches of snow to maybe light sleet/ZR at the end for all over a little bit of snow to start to a roaring south wind generated rain for most of Long Island and maybe even much of NYC like the 18z NAM had. Just take what's happening right now-temps well up in the 30s to 40 with a weaker system than the next one will be due to southerly flow. To me, a few inches of snow for most/all is a lot better than 6" for some from White Plains north while the rest go to sleet or soak. And this system as is could have some surprises anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That's an interesting idiom. Did anyone around LI get genuine measurable snow so far tonight and if so, how much? Just flurries here...looks like the IMBY record for winter futility will be broken (we've got about 23 minutes to tie and it isn't looking good). As Clark Griswold once said..."nothing to be proud of, Rusty" Left work 4:30 PM...went out to eat in Mt. Sinai...finished dinner about 6:45 PM...what do you know...some moderate snow showers moving through as I left restaurant...ground and parking lot snow covered...snow let up as I drove the short distance home...put 0.2" on the board out here...first measurable since March... Gee, I waited ten months for this...and I had my head in a plate of veal parmigana while it should have been out the front window... <wonders if that will be it...but glad shutout for season was avoided...btw...was really closer to 0.25"...but I rounded down> Hey everyone! We had a good 3/10ths of an inch before here in the Stony Brook area from those ocean/sound enhanced snow showers. Cars and roads were completely covered and they got slick in a hurry! Was coming home and saw three quick accidents (spin outs off the road)...so I already nearly got my half inch for tonight with tonight's "main event" still on its way. As much as I loved the milder winter weather, I missed this snow excitement! ...even if it's not that big of a deal... T: 31F Wind Calm 3/10ths" Fresh Snow Currently: Flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I see soundings up by you that tell me higher ratio snows are possible. Take what you can get though. The models always waiver on QPF. nothing to ride your hat on I don't care too much about QPF. I'm more interested in the strengh of the mid-level shortwave and surface wave. The basic correlation here should be the stronger the low, the greater the QPF and warmth. The 18z NAM was on the stronger, warmer, wetter side of the spectrum, and the 0z GFS is heading in the opposite direction. I've read studies that report that ratios in our region are rarely above the 12-15:1 range and that high ratios are generally comfined to the far north and/or mountainous regions. So I generally don't assume anything outide this range and am happily surprised if the fluff factor is excessive. I generally consider large aggregated flakes to be almost as efficient at accumulating as perfect dendrites in our neck of the woods. So I would prefer a high QPF event at average ratios to a very cold dendritic light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Just curious, do you have any links to these studies. Im doing a master's thesis on the microphysics within these storms so Im interested. I don't care too much about QPF. I'm more interested in the strengh of the mid-level shortwave and surface wave. The basic correlation here should be the stronger the low, the greater the QPF and warmth. The 18z NAM was on the stronger, warmer, wetter side of the spectrum, and the 0z GFS is heading in the opposite direction. I've read studies that report that ratios in our region are rarely above the 12-15:1 range and that high ratios are generally comfined to the far north and/or mountainous regions. So I generally don't assume anything outide this range and am happily surprised if the fluff factor is excessive. I generally consider large aggregated flakes to be almost as efficient at accumulating as perfect dendrites in our neck of the woods. So I would prefer a high QPF event at average ratios to a very cold dendritic light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 00Z RGEM Total Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I don't care too much about QPF. I'm more interested in the strengh of the mid-level shortwave and surface wave. The basic correlation here should be the stronger the low, the greater the QPF and warmth. The 18z NAM was on the stronger, warmer, wetter side of the spectrum, and the 0z GFS is heading in the opposite direction. I've read studies that report that ratios in our region are rarely above the 12-15:1 range and that high ratios are generally comfined to the far north and/or mountainous regions. So I generally don't assume anything outide this range and am happily surprised if the fluff factor is excessive. I generally consider large aggregated flakes to be almost as efficient at accumulating as perfect dendrites in our neck of the woods. So I would prefer a high QPF event at average ratios to a very cold dendritic light snow. We have had better ratios than that before: http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2005/22-Jan-05.html I believe we pushed passed 15-1 ratios for this one easily. It can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 No-siree. I'll take the few inches of snow to maybe light sleet/ZR at the end for all over a little bit of snow to start to a roaring south wind generated rain for most of Long Island and maybe even much of NYC like the 18z NAM had. Just take what's happening right now-temps well up in the 30s to 40 with a weaker system than the next one will be due to southerly flow. To me, a few inches of snow for most/all is a lot better than 6" for some from White Plains north while the rest go to sleet or soak. And this system as is could have some surprises anyway. I agree. Especially from the perspective of NYC southeast. But I still believe an evolution similar to the 18z depiction would be snowier than model soundings suggest. I think the NAM was suspiciously warm between 800 and 925mb with such weak thermal advection at those levels. And despite a stronger surface low tracking close to LI, the surface stayed pretty cold until the very end. I think something close to that depiction would result is widespread high advisory/ low end warning criteria snowfall except for eastern LI and the SE shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 As Clark Griswold once said..."nothing to be proud of, Rusty" Yup...silly me; just checked the obs thread. A couple of tenths here and there. Some very close to here, but as far as measureable for us, its still a shutout. I saw a post before with someone poo-pooing ocean effect on LI. It is not unheard of to get OES on a south or SE wind out ahead of a clipper. Delta-T's tonight are about 16c, so it shouldn't be a surprise. Anyone who hasn't seen it before might really enjoy the radar loop over Suffolk County on the page linked below. Click the image at the linked page; the image pasted below is static.: http://www.northshor...oes20050119.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 00Z RGEM Meteogram for Central Park from 00Z Saturday to 00Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 We have had better ratios than that before: http://www.njfreeway.../22-Jan-05.html I believe we pushed passed 15-1 ratios for this one easily. It can happen. That was the coldest nor'easter I have ever seen. It won't be that cold. For example, at noon, it was just 9 degrees with heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 00Z RGEM Meteogram for Central Park from 00Z Saturday to 00Z Sunday. Colder and drier. This would be 2-5 inches in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That was the coldest nor'easter I have ever seen. It won't be that cold. For example, at noon, it was just 9 degrees with heavy snow. Oh don't get me wrong I am not expecting that with this storm, just that in general it can happen. eduugs was stating that he has seen studies that shows we do not get beyond 15-1 so I was just showing that the study may be inaccurate and greater than 15-1 ratios have happened before in this area. I was living right on the Hudson river in Jersey City at that time and I measured 14 inches and we certainly didn't exceed .9-1 inches of qpf on that one from what I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Just curious, do you have any links to these studies. Im doing a master's thesis on the microphysics within these storms so Im interested. Here is a paper from a few years ago in AMS. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF903.1 This is not what I was referring to. What I remember reading was something more regionally based - possibility out of a climate center at Cornell. But there are some cool histograms in the paper. Low density snowfall does occur, but rarely during high precip events. And even at Albany, a significant majority of snowfall events exhibited average ratios below 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Oh don't get me wrong I am not expecting that with this storm, just that in general it can happen. eduugs was stating that he has seen studies that shows we do not get beyond 15-1 so I was just showing that the study may be inaccurate and greater than 15-1 ratios have happened before in this area. I was living in Jersey City at that time and i measured 14 inches and we certainly didn't exceed 1 in qpf on that one from what I recall. Very high ratios do occur and can occur here. But I don't believe it's very common to exceed 15:1 due to our latitude and proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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