ace0927 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The 12/27-28/90 event started as a 1 to 2" then was upped to 3 to 6" and many areas ended up getting 6-8" with a layer of sleet/freezing rain on top. It warmed up a couple days after and it was all gone. Seems like we might be looking at a pretty similar event (though right now anything over 6" seems unlikely). I remember that storm. I was a sr. in HS...those were the days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Rgem at hour 36 is a little colder then NAM. Waiting for hour 48 to see precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Rgem at hour 36 is a little colder then NAM. Waiting for hour 48 to see precip amounts. Guess whos gotta drive a plow for 12+ hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 one of the few guys worth listening to in NYC area: Craig Allen On-Air Inc 0z nam has trended colder and towards gfs positioning of the low. Only thing is there is still a cyclonic east wind for at least 6 hours before backing and tapping into anti cyclonic ne to n wind and colder air pushing down from New England. Witht eh ocean still in the mid 40's, this could limit coastal snow amounts. Otherwise, this may turn into a 2-4/ 3-6 event for the whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 FWIW JB just now saying 3-6 in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Why is that funny? 3"-6" is the concensus. Because he isn't saying 6-12" and hasn't for the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 FWIW JB just now saying 3-6 in NYC Actual Tweet: May adjust snow categories from map below south 50 miles. Would put NYC in solid 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 RGEM Coastal areas look to get into some nice snow rates/accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks like Rgem is around 9mm for NYC or .35" of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks like Rgem is around 9mm for NYC or .35" of qpf. I would've thought there would be more than that this run... the loop also has a slightly messy appearance to the snow bands when they come in with slightly lower amounts near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS is noticeably south of the 18z run through 27 hours already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 ARW and NMM and WRF should be out soon, I think. They always produce some crazy QPF amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This run looks even more suppressed than the NAM... how much colder can this storm possibly get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS looks great...colder than 18z by a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This run looks even more suppressed than the NAM... how much colder can this storm possibly get? Really cold run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 The GFS and NAM are essentially in agreement now on the surface features..the NAM is just a hair more consolidated with the shortwave and produces more precipitation. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVNEAST_0z/f36.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The GFS and NAM are essentially in agreement now on the surface features..the NAM is just a hair more consolidated with the shortwave and produces more precipitation. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVNEAST_0z/f36.gif Gfs is warmer at the surface though by a couple degrees. But other levels are very similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Colder solutions will hopefully allow for dendrites to form for optimal ratios The GFS and NAM are essentially in agreement now on the surface features..the NAM is just a hair more consolidated with the shortwave and produces more precipitation. http://www.meteo.psu...EAST_0z/f36.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Gfs is also faster. Ends precip at hour 39 instead of hour 42. Only .01" falls after hour 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Really cold run I just hope that it doesn't trend far south enough to keep the jackpot south of NYC. I don't think it's likely, but with the way the models have been so far this year, who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thats because it appears like it starts earlier too Gfs is also faster. Ends precip at hour 39 instead of hour 42. Only .01" falls after hour 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Its basically snowing by midnight Gfs is also faster. Ends precip at hour 39 instead of hour 42. Only .01" falls after hour 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 ok kids. Off to bed. Mediation all day tomorrow with the senior partner so no model checking for me...ill be thinking of you all and the model runs hoping they stay cold and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Judging from the 850 temps, the UKIE looks similar to NAM, GFS and RGEM hours 30-42. Waiting for precip maps to update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Mediation all day tomorrow with the senior partner so no model checking for me.. Kids, this is what years of snowstorm tracking will do to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Kids, this is what years of snowstorm tracking will do to you. That is funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I will inform everyone at CVS that a snowstorm is on the way, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I just hope that it doesn't trend far south enough to keep the jackpot south of NYC. I don't think it's likely, but with the way the models have been so far this year, who knows... Northern Monmouth County ends up with sleet on most model runs. Don't worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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