NYCSuburbs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Excellent hit on the NAM. Should be the snowiest model out of the bunch, once the model finishes giving us precipitation. It's been stuck at hour 36 for the last couple of minutes... keeping us waiting until the best frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Mother of God post? nahhh. haha Awesome run though, now we got the skeptic NAM on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM has ISP well below freezing through 18z at the surface but the warm nose does show its head by that time. Still saturated and with the cold low levels this could be ending as sleet per the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 There is no precip after hour 42, before someone panics. At hour 42, the city and LI are still below 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 850s go above freezing at 18z but over. 5" has fallen by that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 For you my friend! YEAH BABY, much colder and even the end barely warms up. Beautiful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 .50"+ of precip for all on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 We do warm nose on Long Island but it would be sleet if precip is left by 1 pm since its cold at the surface. YEAH BABY, much colder and even the end barely warms up. Beautiful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 850s go above freezing at 18z but over. 5" has fallen by that point There is virtually zero precip left after 18z. Barely .01" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 YEAH BABY, much colder and even the end barely warms up. Beautiful run. Thats a solid 4-8 inch snowfall for sw ct, about as good as it could get for us I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 We do warm nose on Long Island but it would be sleet if precip is left by 1 pm since its cold at the surface. it has cut back a lot on the warm punch, HPN was about +1 to 1.5 at 850 earlier at the end,now its 0c on the button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thats most important thing! im intriguied by the cold surface too! I would like to say its not so much that its further south but it does have everything starting quicker so it really wet bulbs early and we go NE at the surface... from the arctic high keeeping us cold. it has cut back a lot on the warm punch, HPN was about +1 to 1.5 at 900 earlier at the end,now its 0c on the button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This is the best the clown map has looked yet. 4"-6" for NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Judging by the 00Z NAM, someone in eastern Mass. may pick up 10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well, you can't ask for a better start to the model runs. Very much in line with everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Judging by the 00Z NAM, someone in eastern Mass. may pick up 10" of snow. Eastern Mass has temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nam text soundings shows NYC at 24 degrees at hour 36, as the heaviest precip falls, and at hour 42, as the precip is ending, 27 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nam text soundings shows NYC at 24 degrees at hour 24 degrees at hour 36 as the heaviest precip falls and at 27 degrees as the precip is ending at hour 42. My goodness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Lol nam may bring decent ratios now LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The 12/27-28/90 event started as a 1 to 2" then was upped to 3 to 6" and many areas ended up getting 6-8" with a layer of sleet/freezing rain on top. It warmed up a couple days after and it was all gone. Seems like we might be looking at a pretty similar event (though right now anything over 6" seems unlikely). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This is a very egalitarian run, in terms of precip for most of the city. All around 4-6". Usually coastal bombs leave pockets of isolated elitist 1%ers picking up double the rest.....aka John haha jk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nam text soundings shows NYC at 24 degrees at hour 36, as the heaviest precip falls, and at hour 42, as the precip is ending, 27 degrees. Yep, this is the warmest it gets while precip is falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 So basically the Nam goes from a crappy run to the best run of any model thus far. Surface does look quite cold. Maybe a 6" storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Remember the NAM tends to run too cold at the levels for its temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The 0z NAM map has 6 inches... I'm not sure if it ends up that high but chances for 4+ inches of snow are starting to look better IMO, especially with the cold surface temps resulting in a higher snow ratio potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Verbatim, NAM is a 5-10 deal. Its probably overdoing QPF, but the colder temperatures are certainly a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This is a very egalitarian run, in terms of precip for most of the city. All around 4-6". Usually coastal bombs leave pockets of isolated elitist 1%ers picking up double the rest.....aka John haha jk. The occupy train left a while ago bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Verbatim, NAM is a 5-10 deal. Its probably overdoing QPF, but the colder temperatures are certainly a good sign. 10" is pushing it. Lol, 4-8" with 8 being very high end, NW ratios should actually be decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Anyone got the MM5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The occupy train left a while ago bro. It just went off course. It'll be back soon, trust me. lol and well hopefully we all get a decent storm on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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