bass28 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Srefs look namish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 No change on the SREFs...exactly the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Srefs look namish... what? no, cold, and fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Alot of north leaning it looks like with 2ms into ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Srefs look namish... Not close...the SREF has the 850 0c line running through Sandy hook at 42 hrs. The 48 hr 18z NAM had the 850 0c line over Danbury CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Quick glance at the srefs. At hour 42, the 850 and surface freezing line are south of LI. Precip ends right around then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 No change on the SREFs...exactly the same. exactly, cold at all levels while precipitating. 18z nam is the outlier by all accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Quick glance at the srefs. At hour 42, the 850 and surface freezing line are south of LI. Precip ends right around then. probably right before then they are good to go. Lets see 00z nam cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Onto 0z! exactly, cold at all levels while precipitating. 18z nam is the outlier by all accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 The precip is over by 45-48 hours..thats probably where you're getting confused. Here's the 6 hour precip at 48 hours (precip between 42 and 48). http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/sref/20120119/21/sref_namer_048_precip_p06.gif Think about it this way...less than 0.1" has fallen between 42 and 48 hours. If you go back to 42 hours, you can see that between 36 and 42...0.25" has fallen. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/sref/20120119/21/sref_namer_042_precip_p06.gif The 850 0c line is valid for that *exact* time. So at 42 hours, it's not even on the south shore of LI and the precip is ending. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/sref/20120119/21/sref_namer_042_850_temp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The precip is over by 45-48 hours..thats probably where you're getting confused. Here's the 6 hour precip at 48 hours (precip between 42 and 48). http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p06.gif Think about it this way...less than 0.1" has fallen between 42 and 48 hours. If you go back to 42 hours, you can see that between 36 and 42...0.25" has fallen. http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p06.gif The 850 0c line is valid for that *exact* time. So at 42 hours, it's not even on the south shore of LI and the precip is ending. http://mag.ncep.noaa...42_850_temp.gif thanks for the play-by-play on the models these past few days john. the explanations have been awesome when the models come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 thanks for the play-by-play on the models these past few days john. the explanations have been awesome when the models come out No problem man. It can all be very confusing at times and tough to keep up with. But you learn along the way. Great thing about meteorology is you're still learning every single day, even when you're working. No pattern is the same..no storm is the same. Very humbling profession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 you could argue that at hr 15 the system is already a smidge south on the nam. It's comforting to see the srefs holding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 No problem man. It can all be very confusing at times and tough to keep up with. But you learn along the way. Great thing about meteorology is you're still learning every single day, even when you're working. No pattern is the same..no storm is the same. Very humbling profession. thats what interests me about it. there is always things and situations that happen or occur then that really drive you to understand why and did it happen. the forecasting aspect is so challenging as well that it really does take a dedicated person to understand meteorology like us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 you could argue that at hr 15 the system is already a smidge south on the nam. It's comforting to see the srefs holding Looks south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM is comparatively south already through 18 hours with the height field and thicknesses compared to the 18z run. The surface pressures are also farther south and east over the plains. I would be surprised if this didn't come in colder for the areas that were borderline on 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 For what it's worth, the 21z SREF strangely slightly reduced the probability of 1" near NYC, although it expanded that area and slightly increased the probability of 4+ inches. The SREF is slowly trending towards a slightly snowier outcome: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 South and somewhat east with most features by 50 or more miles through 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 This is probably going to be a great run for most of our area just judging by the VV's and RH field at 33 hours as well as the 850/925mb 0c lines being farther south by 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 You can see where the warm advection is occurring, but man is it cold at the surface at 9z saturday. snow should be starting at this time by ISP.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 12z Saturday ISP sounding ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 this is a fabulous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 More moisture, colder and further south... this run is probably going to be one of, if not the best one yet for the NYC area. It's even colder than the 12z NAM which favored a slightly further south solution than the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Beautiful signature at 36 hours. Snow at that hour and a good amount of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 :drunk: :drunk: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Excellent hit on the NAM. Should be the snowiest model out of the bunch, once the model finishes giving us precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 For you my friend! :drunk: :drunk: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 PICS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 :drunk: :drunk: :drunk: :drunk: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Beautiful signature at 36 hours. Snow at that hour and a good amount of it. Yep, strongest vertical velocities at H7 move across the area 09z-12z Saturday morning, with 850's comfortably below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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