TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Here you go Metfan, I cann't believe that someone as active as you are on this forum doesn't know what warning criteria snowfall is Dude, snow warnings have been discontinued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The 12Z SPC WRF looks pretty good with snows from 09Z-18Z from NYC on the sim radar. It shows the best echoes late from 14-17Z or so for NYC as the coastal gets going and parts of SNE look to get hit quite hard...seems to have the same idea with more QPF barely south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Here are the correct definitions from NYC. Bookmark this page. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/wwa_definitions_new.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Its also the biggest city in the world, and the difference from advisory to warning for the city costs alot more money. This is not a storm that the city shouldnt be able to handle. Here are the correct definitions from NYC. Bookmark this page. http://www.erh.noaa....itions_new.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not sure if anyone saw what it was, but JB may have had an epic forecast for this storm because DT just opened fire on his snow forecast on facebook. DT is alot lower-goes for 1-2 for LI, 2-4 for most areas and 4-6 for Northern CT. - JB has a general 3-6 with lollies to 8 along I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Dude, snow warnings have been discontinued. The criteria still hasn't changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Dude, snow warnings have been discontinued. That is not the criteria for a (HEAVY SNOW WARNING) yes I am aware they no longer exist. That is Winter Storm Warning snowfall criteria right from the NWS website http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/winter.html Some may also be suprised to see how high advisory level criteria is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The criteria still hasn't changed. 1) Its better not to have people say snow warning and ask about snow warnings when they dont exist 2) Its not accurate in other ways as well. Read the definition and look at the last part "A warning may still be warranted if the event is expected to exceed advisory criteria, but fall just short of warning criteria and will significantly impact mass transit and/or utilities." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 3-5" is the best bet for us all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The 12Z SPC WRF looks pretty good with snows from 09Z-18Z from NYC on the sim radar. It shows the best echoes late from 14-17Z or so for NYC as the coastal gets going and parts of SNE look to get hit quite hard...seems to have the same idea with more QPF barely south of NYC. As a further update, the 18Z 6 hour forecast from this AM's 12Z run is about as dead on as possible, it has all the heavier bands in IL/WI/IN almost exactly as on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 1) Its better not to have people say snow warning and ask about snow warnings when they dont exist 2) Its not accurate in other ways as well. Read the definition and look at the last part "A warning may still be warranted if the event is expected to exceed advisory criteria, but fall just short of warning criteria and will significantly impact mass transit and/or utilities." Either way, whether to issue a warning or an advisory is up to the sole discretion of the forecaster in charge. Of course they usually communicate with the surrounding offices so that everyone is on a similar page. Since this is all based on the confidence of the forecaster that warning level criteria will be met, not every storm is handeled identically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 3-5" is the best bet for us all... That is really too generalized, that's a good bet for the city and parts of LI with much lower amounts on the south shore and the chance of significantly higher amounts NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Pretty much par for the course with most of precip even at coast falling as snow with some IP/ZR mixed near the ending as precip rate falls off and we get some warming aloft. I agree with this. Higher intensity precipitation on the southern periphery of the show shield should help overcome slightly above freezing mid-level temperatures, if the warm push materializes. I expect a mostly snow event north of Sayreville, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 As a further update, the 18Z 6 hour forecast from this AM's 12Z run is about as dead on as possible, it has all the heavier bands in IL/WI/IN almost exactly as on the radar. Looking forward to tonights run as it will be extra accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I agree with this. Higher intensity precipitation on the southern periphery of the show shield should help overcome slightly above freezing mid-level temperatures, if the warm push materializes. I expect a mostly snow event north of Sayreville, NJ. It'll be interesting to see how the storm and precip enhance as it hits the ocean. There could be some decent bands somewhere in the snow shield over N NJ/S NY/CT and enhanced snow/ice/rain closer to the low. It'll be a fight at the end here but if we mix it won't be until the end. I still think the chance exists for a zone of ZR and sleet somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 As a further update, the 18Z 6 hour forecast from this AM's 12Z run is about as dead on as possible, it has all the heavier bands in IL/WI/IN almost exactly as on the radar. Snowgoose...I believe it was you who wisely suggested that we watch p-types in central/eastern PA for trends as to what we should expect here. It looks to me like that is pretty much on track in IL/WI/IN at this time. Is it too soon to deduce anything regarding ptype from those obs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looking forward to tonights run as it will be extra accurate. The only problem I have with this event right now honestly is it appears there are not many banding signatures showing on much of the meso models and alot seem to just show light snow for an extensive period, it may not mean much but its something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The only problem I have with this event right now honestly is it appears there are not many banding signatures showing on much of the meso models and alot seem to just show light snow for an extensive period, it may not mean much but its something to keep in mind. That's been my thinking all along. If northern NJ doesn't see warning criteria snowfall it won't be because of mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I agree with this. Higher intensity precipitation on the southern periphery of the show shield should help overcome slightly above freezing mid-level temperatures, if the warm push materializes. I expect a mostly snow event north of Sayreville, NJ. See what you could do to push that 'mostly snow' event about 5 miles south please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 1) Its better not to have people say snow warning and ask about snow warnings when they dont exist 2) Its not accurate in other ways as well. Read the definition and look at the last part "A warning may still be warranted if the event is expected to exceed advisory criteria, but fall just short of warning criteria and will significantly impact mass transit and/or utilities." Warnings can also be issued for combinations. For exampkle, 4 or 5 inches of snow, followed by a tenth of an inch of ice can get a warning. It's up to the forecaster's discretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 DT is going with an inch for NYC lol no he isnt...his map clearly says 3"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 no he isnt...his map clearly says 3"... first map was messed up per DT. He does state 3. Might not be that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thats surprising that he'd be that heavily against the guidance at this range. dont listen to snow88...his map has specific cities...nyc 3" http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/LAST.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 dont listen to snow88...his map has specific cities,,,nyc 3" He had to rewrite it because he made a mistake. His 1st map was 1-3 inches , now it's 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Warnings can also be issued for combinations. For exampkle, 4 or 5 inches of snow, followed by a tenth of an inch of ice can get a warning. It's up to the forecaster's discretion. Yes another reason map only isn't enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Accuweather has 3-6 for the metro area. http://www.accuweath...c-hartfor/60508 This is the latest from Henry. A wall of white is moving right down I-80 at 50 mph. Snow will arrive in western PA by dark and NYC by late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 See what you could do to push that 'mostly snow' event about 5 miles south please. Haha, Make that 10miles. We still should see 2 or 3 before the slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Can all the Henry dt Jb Steve d stuff go in banter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 first map was messed up per DT. He does state 3. Might not be that far off. he will probably be very close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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