Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Mid level temps are the concern here for the most part, not surface temps. So unless your thermometer has an antena to the 850mb level, calm down. Aye aye Captain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 There have been plenty of events though where QPF amounts are lower but ratios are higher and the jackpot ends up being N&W. Remember the 12/5/02 event. Most of northern NJ/Hudson valley was not in a watch and some spots got over 10" across Sussex and Orange counties out of barely half an inch of precip. I've seen this happen many times especially when we're talking about these types of events rather than coastal lows where some areas end up too far away from the low and get shafted. You're not going to get high snow ratios even with surface temps in the mid 20's for most of the event. Take a look at the Bufkit for more details. The 12z NAM had ratios only briefly exceeding 10:1 at KMMU. That mid level warm punch will likely take its toll. It will be interesting to see what ratios show up on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Mid level temps are the concern here for the most part, not surface temps. So unless your thermometer has an antena to the 850mb level, calm down. Approximately how high its that? Would be cool to have a mini station at the top of 1 world trade when its finished at 1776 feet, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Approximately how high its that? Would be cool to have a mini station at the top of 1 world trade when its finished at 1776 feet, LOL, try 5000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I believe 850mb level is roughly 5000 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 LOL, try 5000 feet. Right on, Im sure they will have a building that tall in Dubai soon I know there are talks for a 1000m building there as the next milestone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Just to get an idea as to how strong the mid level warm punch is, take a look at the critical thickness loop from SPC, warm air has already made it as far north as West Virginia and is advancing at a decent clip out ahead of the QPF shield. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=19&parm=thck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NMM 27 HOURS. We would all be ripping at this point. ARW 27 Hours, little bit faster, good returns too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NMM 27 HOURS. We would all be ripping at this point. ARW 27 Hours, little bit faster, good returns too. Possible mixing in Southern parts of the metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Both the NAM and those higher resolution models posted above have been showing an area of heavier QPF right over the city, NE NJ and northeastward from there. That would surely produce nice rates for a period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looking at the NMM and ARW they really agree with the RGEM and are cooler than the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Possible mixing in Southern parts of the metro areas. The rgem precip tyope maps are spot on to to these two hi res models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looking at the NMM and ARW they really agree with the RGEM and are cooler than the GFS and NAM. Yup short term models are the way to go from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The rgem precip tyope maps are spot on to to these two hi res models. RGEM shows minimal mixing in the five boroughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Possible mixing in Southern parts of the metro areas. They are nowhere near as warm as the GFS at H85 and are colder than the NAM top. As joshua said very much in line with the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NMM is very juicy. Probably over done, but its nick name is Not Much Moisture so good to see it have the higher totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 RGEM shows minimal mixing in the five boroughs. agreed, which is why everyone should be happy they all match up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 What a change- two days ago we were hoping for an hour or two of snow before a change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I would still be a tad worried if I lived south of say I-80 or the LIE, but everyone has to be happy with the 12z suite comprimise so far. Two more model runs and then its showtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 ggem total qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NMM is very juicy. Probably over done, but its nick name is Not Much Moisture so good to see it have the higher totals. That's what I alluded to in an earlier post from the city on south through C and S/C NJ. If you go with the shorter term higher res models, there is a chance these areas receive a heavy dose of snow, 6-10". If warm nose sneaks in could be heavy snow to significant ice storm, maybe sleet. Surface is really cold, high res models really cold all levels as well as RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I would still be a tad worried if I lived south of say I-80 or the LIE, but everyone has to be happy with the 12z suite comprimise so far. Two more model runs and then its showtime. 2 more?? It's almost time for now-casting!! I would look for trends on those short-term models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 No change into the 5 boros or Northern NJ on either of the high resolution models. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/COMPRAD4_12z/cloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 ggem total qpf That's quite an increase in precip since the last run. 12mm, up from 9-10mm on the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 GEFS is colder than the op. Looks like .25-.50 on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not sure if anyone saw what it was, but JB may have had an epic forecast for this storm because DT just opened fire on his snow forecast on facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 How do temps look on the GGEM compared to the GFS/NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 DT is going with an inch for NYC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I saw that and not really sure what he's talking about. I didn't see any JB updates regarding changed amounts since yesterday which was to upgrade NYC to 3-6 Not sure if anyone saw what it was, but JB may have had an epic forecast for this storm because DT just opened fire on his snow forecast on facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not sure if anyone saw what it was, but JB may have had an epic forecast for this storm because DT just opened fire on his snow forecast on facebook. Jb saying 3-6 for NYC lol don't seem wrong dt has 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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