IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 A few areas between Northeast New Jersey and Montauk Point should get 6+. Just the luck of the draw. I don't think anyone east of the Suffolk County line stands a chance at seeing 6.0"+. There is a reason why the watches have not been expanded south and east. Even up my way, I think 3-5" is much more reasonable than the forecasted 4-8". Some people may be underestimating the lack of intensity in precip as you travel north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks like everyone from nyc north and west stay pretty much all snow..Qpf around 0.50"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I wouldn't let my guard down for an ice storm just yet. If the warming at the mid-levels continue, it wouldn't take all that much for an IP/ZR fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 30 hours GFS NYC with the mid levels starting to dry out, 850 is .1 with a DP of -.2 where is TMAGAN, really want a 27 hour sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The 12z GFS is exactly what I just posted about. Seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS looks warmer. I'm thinking it's more and more likely central NJ and southern Long Island (maybe even up into and through NYC) flip to sleet or ZR mid-morning, before it ends by midday or so. But still several inches of snow before then. I would trust the NAM more with surface temps. Wherever winds stay NE or ENE won't go to liquid rain, unless it's coastal NJ where that's still onshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Pretty much par for the course with most of precip even at coast falling as snow with some IP/ZR mixed near the ending as precip rate falls off and we get some warming aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Is Tmagan here or is he still eating dinner? wanna find out how he gets the in between hour soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's also not a coincedence that the GFS got wetter as well as warmer. More moisture means more warm air being lifted and transported north. Hopefully it's not a last second trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Surface temps are much colder than the models and the NWS were forecasting. Central Park is stuck in the mid 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I cant answer completely for him, but since your my sounding buddy, I use Bufkit and can get these in between soundings but not until the run is completely done so it may be awhile. I do think like you said its warming the mid levels as the best lift and precip move away so most of the snow is ending anyway. Is Tmagan here or is he still eating dinner? wanna find out how he gets the in between hour soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's also not a coincedence that the GFS got wetter as well as warmer. More moisture means more warm air being lifted and transported north. Hopefully it's not a last second trend. It's good that the coastal front is still south of us as of 15z. Probably some mixing beyond that as the precip winds down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I cant answer completely for him, but since your my sounding buddy, I use Bufkit and can get these in between soundings but not until the run is completely done so it may be awhile. I do think like you said its warming the mid levels as the best lift and precip move away so most of the snow is ending anyway. Yeah, bufkit will be later, he seems to get them like right when its running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's also not a coincedence that the GFS got wetter as well as warmer. More moisture means more warm air being lifted and transported north. Hopefully it's not a last second trend. 0.5" QPF line is almost to High Point, NJ on the 12z GFS vs south of KMMU on the 12z NAM. Even so, 850 freezing line never makes it west of the NJ turnpike and actually crashes back south and east as the precip is shutting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 He may use a program called RAOB Yeah, bufkit will be later, he seems to get them like right when its running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 There have been plenty of events though where QPF amounts are lower but ratios are higher and the jackpot ends up being N&W. Remember the 12/5/02 event. Most of northern NJ/Hudson valley was not in a watch and some spots got over 10" across Sussex and Orange counties out of barely half an inch of precip. I've seen this happen many times especially when we're talking about these types of events rather than coastal lows where some areas end up too far away from the low and get shafted. I don't think anyone east of the Suffolk County line stands a chance at seeing 6.0"+. There is a reason why the watches have not been expanded south and east. Even up my way, I think 3-5" is much more reasonable than the forecasted 4-8". Some people may be underestimating the lack of intensity in precip as you travel north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 LGA at 27 hours, no worries here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I can imagine all the weenie posts from tonight...good thing I won't be staying up for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I can imagine all the weenie posts from tonight...good thing I won't be staying up for it... A lot of them come from you, so that should weed things out, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 KEWR at 27 hours, warmer than LGA at 850, but still all snow. You can also see the snow growth starting to dry out a little, its starting to end at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 A lot of them come from you, so that should weed things out, lol. LOL-hello pot, my name is kettle...wont be on much--going to wake up, take the boys outside to enjoy with some sledding and clearing the driveway with their new "cars" snow shovels-doing this one old school. Not going to sit behind a computer fretting that someone in NJ is getting heavier echos than me in a moderate run of the mill storm for around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Temps warmed a degree or two over the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 25 in Brooklyn was 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Temps warmed a degree or two over the last hour. ugh, yep, it's 11:30am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That tends to happen when the sun rises Temps warmed a degree or two over the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 ukmet 850 temps are colder at 30 hours than the gfs and nam fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That tends to happen when the sun rises Haha. The sun rose at 7 in the morning and temps were falling until 10. Doesn't really matter either way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Haha. The sun rose at 7 in the morning and temps were falling until 10. Doesn't really matter either way though. highs for the day were at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Mid level temps are the concern here for the most part, not surface temps. So unless your thermometer has an antena to the 850mb level, calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 A lot of them come from you, so that should weed things out, lol. Include yourself please Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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