TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 the euro doesn't have anyone getting over .5" liquid and keeps the h85 0c line near ttn/belmar for the areas staying as all snow from just south of the city to n and w across hudson valley and ct, its .3 to .4. That's in line with everything else. The fact the nam has more precip where its warmer and switches over in southern and central jersey means little to me and also doesnt mean its going to cut back across the board 25% like the above posted said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 it's strange that the nam is the warmest... usually it's too cold and too far south with these events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 <p> Me too-our boys are almost 3-can't wait to see what they think tomorrow-they were not all that interested last year when they were close to 2....of course then, the snow was higher than them, so I can see why---4 or 5 inches is perfect. I was very scared to walk into 3-foot drifts when I was 7-years-old during the '96 blizzard. I'm dead serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I never let my guard down with these types of events. Models continue to indicate a more defined shortwave at H5 with some ridging out ahead. WAA seems like a safe bet with a SWFE as well as the more northern track. I like the moisture fetch and I believe the added lift/dynamic resulting from the strong thermal gradient should enhance the precip. I think what happens out west should be monitored as it might be telling of what is to come. Overall I think this setup could yield .4-.7. I would go with a general swath of 3-6 inches that includes NYC. I would not be surprised to see some areas exceed those amounts, and this is something I will keep a close eye on as the event unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Also the NAM's resolution is going to show little blips of higher qpf over something like the euro which will smooth it out, even though the euro is the highest resolution global. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not necessarily. I really think this is very close setup to 2/22/08. Snow came in late at night with temps in the 20s, accumulated rapidly. Shut down fairly quickly after noon. Temps warmed above freezing and we had some sleet and rain but all the good stuff shut off by that point. We also teetered on the edge of 1-3" and 3-6" and just about everyone at least from the city on west and north got 5" or more. I just don't see a situation where anyone N&W of I-95 north of TTN goes over to plain rain or even much in the way of sleet for that matter. The airmass that came in last night is quite cold and won't be in a hurry to move out that quickly. This.... There is a much higher chance that you change over to sleet and or rain than get more snow than is forecast in this setup. I am even worried with my location. The duration of the event is generally about 10-12 hours. If I get 6" I need greater than 0.5" per hour rates which seems to be unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Don't worry about it. Apparently a bunch of people think they know exactly where the coastal front will develop based solely off models 24 hours out with nothing else to back it up. Upton disagrees and has fairly uniform snow amounts except for the far east end which climatologicaly is spot on. If the coastal front stays south and east of any given location you can have solid amounts. Perfect example in the 08 event the coastal stayed SE of me till the last minute and after the heaviest precip had already fallen as snow and we did well. Is it a given that will happen? No, but its a solid possibility here. Even if we warm up enough to eventually change over, every model has the vast majority of the storm gone already. Mixed precip isn't going to majorly cut our totals here unless mid level warmth is really bad. As long as our wind stays ENE/NE, we won't come close to plain rain. I could see some sleet and freezing rain at the end. We could easily do as well as anyone else if we luck out with banding or if the GFS/Euro are right and we never warm that much aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 it's strange that the nam is the warmest... usually it's too cold and too far south with these events The NAM has a closed 850mb low over PA, where the other models don't This was 6z: 12z just a little further south over PA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 RGEM rolling in, precip type map at 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Even if we warm up enough to eventually change over, every model has the vast majority of the storm gone already. Mixed precip isn't going to majorly cut our totals here unless mid level warmth is really bad. As long as our wind stays ENE/NE, we won't come close to plain rain. I could see some sleet and freezing rain at the end. We could easily do as well as anyone else if we luck out with banding or if the GFS/Euro are right and we never warm that much aloft. Very true, one thing i will say is it will melt allot faster down here. In 08 once the precip ended and the flow swung SE that warmish foggy wind just eats snow. It like our version of chinook winds out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not necessarily. I really think this is very close setup to 2/22/08. Snow came in late at night with temps in the 20s, accumulated rapidly. Shut down fairly quickly after noon. Temps warmed above freezing and we had some sleet and rain but all the good stuff shut off by that point. We also teetered on the edge of 1-3" and 3-6" and just about everyone at least from the city on west and north got 5" or more. I just don't see a situation where anyone N&W of I-95 north of TTN goes over to plain rain or even much in the way of sleet for that matter. The airmass that came in last night is quite cold and won't be in a hurry to move out that quickly. I think people north and west of phlly will go over ot rain either maybe some frz rain although. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well I'm not really talking about them. I meant areas like Western and central NJ away from the coast. It's possible the warmer air aloft will get there first but I think thats going to be areas from Trenton across 195 to Monmouth county/Southern Middlesex. That tends to be where the cutoff is in alot of these marginal events. I think people north and west of phlly will go over ot rain either maybe some frz rain although. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 rgem 30 hours, this is the clost the mix line gets to KNYC. RGEM is really nice between 24 and 30 hours area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well I'm not really talking about them. I meant areas like Western and central NJ away from the coast. It's possible the warmer air aloft will get there first but I think thats going to be areas from Trenton across 195 to Monmouth county/Southern Middlesex. That tends to be where the cutoff is in alot of these marginal events. I have lived in Western Monmouth county for 35 years and I can tell you that in situations like this we usually do not change - where as areas 20 miles to our east will mix/change. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Very true, one thing i will say is it will melt allot faster down here. In 08 once the precip ended and the flow swung SE that warmish foggy wind just eats snow. It like our version of chinook winds out west. Believe me, I know. I saw/felt it plenty of times last winter. The storm will pull cold air behind it, so we should have snow OTG until Monday when everyone's is torched and washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 rgem 30 hours, this is the clost the mix line gets to KNYC. RGEM is really nice between 24 and 30 hours area wide. the mix line is identical to the euro's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Very true, one thing i will say is it will melt allot faster down here. In 08 once the precip ended and the flow swung SE that warmish foggy wind just eats snow. It like our version of chinook winds out west. Monday looks like it could be that day with temps above 50 and a SE flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 the mix line is identical to the euro's yes, which goes along with what we are saying, the NAM seems to be the outlier and so far still is at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's all really semantics at this point, the 12z models are all coming in with no major changes. I fully expect the snow/sleet/rain line to touch the south shore of Long Island and get very close to the city, but not make it. As I was saying before, I think intensity and overall QPF will be the biggest factors in terms of who sees warning criteria snowfall and who doesn't. The coldest air is seperated from the highest QPF. There should be a JP zone somewhere where we can get the highest QPF in conjunction with the coldest temperatures, and I expect that to be about 20 miles northwest of the city and north of I-80. 12z NAM bufkit was not terribly impressive even at KMMU. Even though it has surface temperatures never getting above 24.6 degrees, ratios never get higher than 10:1 except at the very onset (14:1) breifly. It has 4.3" total. I know those aren't always the most reliable sources, but that gives you an idea how much warming aloft is expected to occur. We are extremely lucky that the depth of the warm air aloft is not shallower. With such cold surface temps, we could have been in for a major ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Less than 2 inches for my area? I doubt that. I think we will all see 3-6 inches with some higher amounts and some lower amounts on eastern LI. I am going with 2-4 for my area because there is always a chance of mixing but I think we will be fine. I can see higher than 6 inch amounts verify if the storm comes earlier than modeled which is usually the case with these events. That happened on feb 22 2008. First snowstorm of the season. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 rgem 30 hours, this is the clost the mix line gets to KNYC. RGEM is really nice between 24 and 30 hours area wide. Wow talk about walking a fine line. I think I'm literally on that moderate snow/mix/rain line. Gonna be fun to see either way how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS brings the 0c line right to NYC at 27 hours but still south of long island, not sure how much precip is left after this. All snow before that of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thats the surface 0C line right? I havent had a chance to look yet. GFS brings the 0c line right to NYC at 27 hours but still south of long island, not sure how much precip is left after this. All snow before that of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I do think the GFS has warmed some, between 27 and 30 its def. not snow south of white plains up to bdr but its ending at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thats the surface 0C line right? I havent had a chance to look yet. No, 850. EDIT: They are almost on top of another another, mid level warmth is more impt here IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Less than 2 inches for my area? I doubt that. I think we will all see 3-6 inches with some higher amounts and some lower amounts on eastern LI. I am going with 2-4 for my area because there is always a chance of mixing but I think we will be fine. I can see higher than 6 inch amounts verify if the storm comes earlier than modeled which is usually the case with these events. That happened on feb 22 2008. First snowstorm of the season. Enjoy A few areas between Northeast New Jersey and Montauk Point should get 6+. Just the luck of the draw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I think the key here is just how cold it is right now and will remain through tonight. How many times are we in the mid and upper 30s waiting for the snow to start so the temps can drop below freezing? The whole area will be well down into the 20s by late tonight when the snow moves in. Looking forward to a nice thump at the onset to put down a few inches and hopefully get at least 3 or 4" before any mixing. And if it mixes or goes to sleet for a time after that I'm fine with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Uh oh, get ready for mass weenie suicide if this is right. No, 850. EDIT: They are almost on top of another another, mid level warmth is more impt here IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Uh oh, get ready for mass weenie suicide if this is right. Its doing what the nam does and what makes sense which is to warm the mid levels slightly too much as the precip is ending i wouldnt want to be s of nyc for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I think the key here is just how cold it is right now and will remain through tonight. How many times are we in the mid and upper 30s waiting for the snow to start so the temps can drop below freezing? The whole area will be well down into the 20s by late tonight when the snow moves in. Looking forward to a nice thump at the onset to put down a few inches and hopefully get at least 3 or 4" before any mixing. And if it mixes or goes to sleet for a time after that I'm fine with it. No plain rain though. Not with these surface temps. This might even end up being a shovel-able snow because all of it will stick to pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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