Weathergun Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This run is the NAM is very close to changing people over -- its this type of north bump which we can usually expect with these SWFE's right as the event is happening or a few runs before it. Luckily we had such a south trend yesterday that the north bump is still fairly decent for most of us. That being said...it does not look like IP or ZR on the south shore through 26 hours which would bring us to 1400 UTC Saturday. The changeover to IP/ZR over the south shore of LI is between 27-30hrs (15z-18z Sat.). Precip ends sometime between 30-33hrs (18z-21z Sat.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well folks looks like a nice little storm on our hands. Not too bad of a deal considering most people in this forum are still sitting a seasonal snow totals of less than one inch on January 20th. Solid high end advisory event for most, low end warning event mostly north and west of I-80/I-287. Timing is good for once also, last year most of the snow events occured at night. At least tommorrow you won't have to wake up at 4am to see flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Seems like Mt. Holly thinks north-central NJ (Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex, and Mercer counties) is going over to plain rain, even though the NAM and GFS both keep the surface below freezing for the entire event. I wonder why? NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ060-067>069-202215- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.120121T0600Z-120121T1800Z/ HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-BERKS-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY- BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...READING...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN... DOYLESTOWN 346 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...FALLING WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...THEN ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES GET JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF SLIPPERY DRIVING AND WALKING...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. MOTORISTS NEED TO USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHERE ICY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP. * WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Big temperature contrast, as is usual, with these types of event. Near 25 in NYC and 35 at Sandy Hook to 45 at ACY. This is a classic situation where NYC and LGA receive a little more then JFK. Classic indeed. Reminds me of last February where I had a little over 4 inches and metfan had something like 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Seems like Mt. Holly thinks north-central NJ (Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex, and Mercer counties) is going over to plain rain, even though the NAM and GFS both keep the surface below freezing for the entire event. I wonder why? NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ060-067>069-202215- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.120121T0600Z-120121T1800Z/ HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-BERKS-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY- BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...READING...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN... DOYLESTOWN 346 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...FALLING WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...THEN ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES GET JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF SLIPPERY DRIVING AND WALKING...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. MOTORISTS NEED TO USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHERE ICY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP. * WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. I think I-195 north is good in terms of staying at least wintry. The immediate shore might be another story. Cold air looks entrenched pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 How do I have no hope? I am expecting 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised to see areas in S/C NJ reporting quick 4 or 5" of snow tomorrow morning. While areas north and west stay cold, some of the higher resolution models are picking up on pretty heavy precip slugs coming into southern half of NJ tomorrow morning while all layers are cold and surface is well below freezing. For example the ARW if taken at face value would indicate a 6-8"+ snowfall for C and S/C NJ. NYC does very well too, likely 6"+ and comes in pretty hard with 3/4" an hour rates for a while. If the warming aloft that the NAM indicates, combined with a likely cold surface and some of the higher resolution precip totals, even a fairly significant ice event on top of 3-5" of snow is possible for S/C NJ north to Monmouth Co. to Staten Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Seems like Mt. Holly thinks north-central NJ (Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex, and Mercer counties) is going over to plain rain, even though the NAM and GFS both keep the surface below freezing for the entire event. I wonder why? NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ060-067>069-202215- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.120121T0600Z-120121T1800Z/ HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-BERKS-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY- BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...READING...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN... DOYLESTOWN 346 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...FALLING WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...THEN ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES GET JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF SLIPPERY DRIVING AND WALKING...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. MOTORISTS NEED TO USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHERE ICY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP. * WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. You're still getting 2-5 inches of snow though before the changeover at the tail end. I wouldn't worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Speaking to the image I posted above..the 06z run was virtually the same. So I think what's being indicated is an hour at the end of the system where some areas could see sleet or freezing drizzle as the storm pulls away. http://www.meteo.psu...C4_6z/cld35.gif it changes very little, all the lift has pushed east and the snow growth region is drying out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Overrunning can bring some nice surprises. Lets hope for that This.... There is a much higher chance that you change over to sleet and or rain than get more snow than is forecast in this setup. I am even worried with my location. The duration of the event is generally about 10-12 hours. If I get 6" I need greater than 0.5" per hour rates which seems to be unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This event feels very familiar to me.. As a child of the 80's, I can remember storms just like this upcoming one. Back then BIG blockbuster storms didn't occur.. It was these types events that would make a kid wildly happy.. Snow starting at 1-2am - continuing till noon or so the next day with the hope that it would snow longer.. Predictions of 3-5" (hoping for a little more) and sometimes getting 6-7" and feeling like a king... The snow never comes down ridiculously hard, but there is a good amount of moderate snow thrown into the mix.. The wind never really picks up, so the snow falls gracefully to the ground and it's a cold event for the most part and since it's still mid/late January everything whitens up and the roads become rather treacherous.. Yea, it's not 12/26/10 or a January of 2011 event - rather just an old fashioned 4"+ type of event that will make everyone very happy... Tomorrow morning will be very peaceful with beautiful snow coming down... In the suburbs, with little or no noise, a nice snow walk will be very peaceful.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This event feels very familiar to me.. As a child of the 80's, I remember storms just like this. Back then BIG blockbuster storms didn't occur.. It was these types events that would make a kid wildly happy.. Snow starting at 1-2am - continuing till noonish the next day with the hope that that it would snow longer.. predictions of 3-5" (hoping for a little more) and sometimes getting 6-7" and feeling like a king... The snow never comes down ridiculously hard, but there is a good amount of moderate snow thrown into the mix.. The wind never really picks up, so the snow falls gracefully to the ground and it's a cold event for the most part and since it's still mid/late January everything whitens up and the roads become rather treacherous.. Yea, it's not 12/26/10 or January of 2011 event - rather just an old fashioned 4"+ type of event that will make everyone very happy... Tomorrow morning will be very peaceful with beautiful snow coming down... Good post and spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Even better is that the event is occurring leading into the weekend, so we can all enjoy the snow for real. It's been a while, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 the fact that the euro hasn't changed much in several days leads me to beleive the nam is overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 How do I have no hope? I am expecting 2-4 inches. I'd be suprised if you only got 2.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Even better is that the event is occurring leading into the weekend, so we can all enjoy the snow for real. It's been a while, huh? Sure has.. I can't wait to take my 18 month old out to discover the joys that I remember so well as a kid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'd be suprised if you only got 2.... he literally lives on the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 the fact that the euro hasn't changed much in several days leads me to beleive the nam is overdone NAM is always overdone-cut QPF by 25% and you are good...the model will chop it tonight at 0z as it always does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM is always overdone-cut QPF by 25% and you are good...the model will chop it tonight at 0z as it always does LOL, its 12z is in line pretty much with everything else, so not sure what there is to chop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Sure has.. I can't wait to take my 18 month old out to discover the joys that I remember so well as a kid.. Me too-our boys are almost 3-can't wait to see what they think tomorrow-they were not all that interested last year when they were close to 2....of course then, the snow was higher than them, so I can see why---4 or 5 inches is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 LOL, its 12z is in line pretty much with everything else, so not sure what there is to chop. the euro doesn't have anyone getting over .5" liquid and keeps the h85 0c line near ttn/belmar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The snow will be of the dry and powdery variety as well which will make it easy to remove. It's a win win situation, nice little snow event and not a back breaker to clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM is always overdone-cut QPF by 25% and you are good...the model will chop it tonight at 0z as it always does Nam's probably overdoing the warming a little and therefore the precip in the storm. Sometimes these kind of storms bump north last-second so it's impossible to discount, but I think most everyone (central NJ and north) are good for a few inches of snow or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 the euro doesn't have anyone getting over .5" liquid and keeps the h85 0c line near ttn/belmar it's also had this idea well before any of the american models showed us getting an event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NYC down to 24*F now on a brisk NW wind with the dew point approaching 0*F. I doubt the city gets out of the 20s today. We could also see additional radiational cooling this evening before the WAA commences. Couple this with very low dewpoints, and I would not be surprised to see the city drop into the teens as evaporational cooling takes place once the snow begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 it's also had this idea well before any of the american models showed us getting an event I remember the GFS having this event way out in the long range. The first few runs had the low much more amplified but the general idea was there. I remember saying that it needed to be watched due to the position and strength of the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 How do I have no hope? I am expecting 2-4 inches. Don't worry about it. Apparently a bunch of people think they know exactly where the coastal front will develop based solely off models 24 hours out with nothing else to back it up. Upton disagrees and has fairly uniform snow amounts except for the far east end which climatologicaly is spot on. If the coastal front stays south and east of any given location you can have solid amounts. Perfect example in the 08 event the coastal stayed SE of me till the last minute and after the heaviest precip had already fallen as snow and we did well. Is it a given that will happen? No, but its a solid possibility here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 it's also had this idea well before any of the american models showed us getting an event No surprise there..it's a good model in the longer range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 ratios should be almost 15:1 here with .3-.5 qpf possibly nice thermal gradient, okx is spot on in my opinion for 4-7 as forecast but might lolli to 8 if everything breaks right, temps here are frigid for the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 LOL, its 12z is in line pretty much with everything else, so not sure what there is to chop. His weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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