earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 The NAM looks warmer at 24 hours at 850mb compared to the 06z run. But again, it looks too strong with the WAA as it develops the secondary surface low. In a similar fashion to yesterdays run when it developed the low over the Ohio Valley...and was too strong with the warm air advection there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's roughly the same as 06z comparing hours 27 at 12z to 33 at 06z. 850 0c line, in the higher resolution graphics, pretty much hasn't moved. It may actually be a little faster and cooler over PA at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The NAM looks warmer at 24 hours at 850mb compared to the 06z run. But again, it looks too strong with the WAA as it develops the secondary surface low. In a similar fashion to yesterdays run when it developed the low over the Ohio Valley...and was too strong with the warm air advection there. Yeah, that seems extremely suspect to me, not supported anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The NAM looks warmer at 24 hours at 850mb compared to the 06z run. But again, it looks too strong with the WAA as it develops the secondary surface low. In a similar fashion to yesterdays run when it developed the low over the Ohio Valley...and was too strong with the warm air advection there. Hour 27 is nearly identical to hour 33 of the 6z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hour 27 is nearly identical to hour 33 of the 6z NAM. Posted the same thing above -- the initial post was mainly an hour 24 comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 All snow 12z plus 27 hours on the NAM NYC Best lift however is just to the north of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 It is definitely a hair warmer than the 06z run towards the tail end as well (just using 30 hr as a judgement point). Still 3-6 inches for everybody on the early maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 at 12z plus 30 hours, 850 goes to .1 over NYC as precip is ending. Best lift way east at this time, so very little is lost. Good run, even being on the warmer side of the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It is definitely a hair warmer than the 06z run towards the tail end as well (just using 30 hr as a judgement point). Still 3-6 inches for everybody on the early maps. no lift left at 30 hours, its basically over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 and at 30 hours the city is -3.1 at the surface plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 SREFs were wet and cold... .50" precip line nearly to NYC and here's the warmest the thicknesses get (bottom right) http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21TYPNE_9z/f30.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 And its over by hour 30. As expected, less precip then the 6z NAM. About .40"-.45" this run for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Etiher way, things look great out by me. Simulated radar on the NAM looks beautiful. 0.5" QPF liine slices almost right over I-80 and then just south of Long Island. Would be great to see the low bump about 20 miles further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 And its over by hour 30. As expected, less precip then the 6z NAM. About .40"-.45" this run for NYC. That's pretty close to the SREF. Either way I wouldn't worry too much about QPF. If that simulated radar is correct, the snow will be moderate to heavy at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 .50" line into NYC in the end. Very nice run. Snows from 4am to 1-2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Overrunning can bring some nice surprises. Lets hope for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 4"-5" for NYC area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 first snowstorm in harlem, excited... in a situation that might be marginal like this i figure it could be good for an additional inch or so (west 130s vs. mid 80s). still a concrete jungle but slightly more elevation/smaller buildings/further north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 WSW's up for parts of CT and the Hudson Valley in NNJ. WWA's for the city, LI, NJ, and SE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Game on ill take the under for Nassau/South Half of Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM takes most of the south shore into IP/ZR after 1-3 inches of snow depending on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Final precip from NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM takes most of the south shore into IP/ZR after 1-3 inches of snow depending on location. Long Island was never going to be jackpotted in this setup. If the system trends weaker and further south, you will get more snow but less QPF. If the system trends stronger and futher north, you will get more QPF and less in the way of snow. You need to somehow find the happy medium. Luckily you have the SREF's on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Long Island was never going to be jackpotted in this setup. If the system trends weaker and further south, you will get more snow but less QPF. If the system trends stronger and futher north, you will get more QPF and less in the way of snow. You need to somehow find the happy medium. Luckily you have the SREF's on your side. North shore of LI will do very well from this. Especially the Great Neck to Smithtown area. Models always overdo the warmth for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 height of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM takes most of the south shore into IP/ZR after 1-3 inches of snow depending on location. This run is the NAM is very close to changing people over -- its this type of north bump which we can usually expect with these SWFE's right as the event is happening or a few runs before it. Luckily we had such a south trend yesterday that the north bump is still fairly decent for most of us. That being said...it does not look like IP or ZR on the south shore through 26 hours which would bring us to 1400 UTC Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 He gets 3"-4" of snow on the NAM at his location. Areas east of Long Beach get less. No doubt, some areas of Long Island will do decently, but for those that are hoping for a miracle aka Metfan there is no hope I say take your 3-4" and be happy because that is 3-4" more than I was expecting for the rest of the winter. This is one of those funky situations where elevation really won't play much of a factor except maybe in snow ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Big temperature contrast, as is usual, with these types of event. Near 25 in NYC and 35 at Sandy Hook to 45 at ACY. This is a classic situation where NYC and LGA receive a little more then JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Speaking to the image I posted above..the 06z run was virtually the same. So I think what's being indicated is an hour at the end of the system where some areas could see sleet or freezing drizzle as the storm pulls away. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4_6z/cld35.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Close to .50 inch qpf for most spots around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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