yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 RGEM says we are either at rain or about to be rain at DCA 12z SAT... N and W still hanging on but barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I've got the Saturday forecast -- as usual for storm day. So I'll likely nail it. White rain???? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That was going to be "our" storm finally, after the way the winter went. But of course it ended up overperforming for Philadelphia and they got the 5" while we were left praying that the radar would fill up as the back edge raced through. One thing about that storm is that we had massive warmth to the south. I remember clearly that about 2 that day, while we were at 33 in Winchester and under a WSW, Charltottesville was 67 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 RGEM says we are either at rain or about to be rain at DCA 12z SAT... N and W still hanging on but barely So it is warmer than 18Z?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 RGEM says we are either at rain or about to be rain at DCA 12z SAT... N and W still hanging on but barely Still seems to be thumping snow for a little while there, Baltimore getting heavy snow for a few hours, then heavy mix/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I do think, like some others evidently, that being in the heavier precip is key, obviously for any amount of winter precip, but also type and duration of cold. Well if you are speaking in terms of ice...no heavier precip is not key. Heavy rain in near freezing temps will NOT accumulate ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 So it is warmer than 18Z. well its actually closer to the NAM, looks a little weird concerning the wedge, was somewhat unrealistic before, but still good for Baltimore, phin is in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 00z NAM BUFKIT: KIAD: 0.5 SN and 0.65 FZRA KMRB: 0.7 SN and 0.39 PL and 0.39 FZRA KBWI: 1.1 SN and 0.06 PL and 0.44 FZRA KDCA: 0.3 SN and 0.05 PL and 0.19 FZRA NOTE: .40 QPF comes in the form of rain at 32/33 degrees hrs 38-40 at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 maybe one day before I die or stop following weather, I will care what the Canadian models have to say lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well if you are speaking in terms of ice...no heavier precip is not key. Heavy rain in near freezing temps will NOT accumulate ice. I agree. I was thinking more in terms of snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 In the car coming home from a movie when I saw this gem. I laughed so hard that my gf almost went into a ditch. Not sure what is so funny? To each his own I guess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 In the car coming home from a movie when I saw this gem. I laughed so hard that my gf almost went into a ditch. what is it about that sentence that gives me pause...I need to think about it a little longer maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 CWG seems to be bullish on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM doesn't look so icy for JYO...maybe .30 or so of rain with temps around 30 but it goes up to 35 or so for the remaining precip....no big deal really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS is gonna' be better this run I can see it already at 15hrs comparing it to the 18Z trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 what is it about that sentence that gives me pause...I need to think about it a little longer maybe lol Yeah, I see your point. "Drove us" into a ditch works better I think. Anyway, I deleted my comment as it wasn't necessary. On topic, like the majority, I'm going to wait out a couple more model runs before I jump in a ditch with the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS is gonna' be better this run I can see it already at 15hrs comparing it to the 18Z trust me Agreed... I am watching the precip field in IA/MN... movement SW by 50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM doesn't look so icy for JYO...maybe .30 or so of rain with temps around 30 but it goes up to 35 or so for the remaining precip....no big deal really Are you sure? Bufkit fwiw had IAD all frozen precip taken this run for verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Are you sure? Bufkit fwiw had IAD all frozen precip taken this run for verbatim 0.65 FZRA FWIW verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Over/under on the word devastating being used in the next 10 minutes.....4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Agreed... I am watching the precip field in IA/MN... movement SW by 50 miles it's flatter than 18Z, which is what we need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Are you sure? Bufkit fwiw had IAD all frozen precip taken this run for verbatim 2m temps at 35 just before hour 42 with maybe half the precip to go...maybe I'm reading it wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 always a good sign from Matt sounds like you're going to be visiting Canada on a pleasure trip?....like it or not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Devastating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 My snow is going to be awesome Sarcasm, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Super meh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Super meh? what is that supposed to mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Sarcasm, right? no, it's definitely better than 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 No. I'm out to 36. The GFS is sweet. cAd is the only thing we do well other than heat. By 30 I see 0.1" QPF into N VA/DC with 850s below 0 still, but barely. I don't have farther yet... but I will take your word for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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