Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Seattle's now about 6 hours and counting past the forecasted timing of rising above freezing from this morning's forecast. Not saying anything about here, but they've even switched back to snow and are at 28. i'd give a lot higher odds it's close on temps compared to close on precip. it might lie somewhere in the middle but people can't conveniently disregard that the nam almost always runs high on precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 But that's the thing-- that just does not happen. Have YOU ever seen 1/4"+ of solid ice on the streets? Not driveways, not sidewalks, but the actual roads? I really can't recall a single ice storm where there was more than the initial glaze on roads.... once the rain comes down hard enough, it just doesn't build up on the road surfaces anymore. It was about this time last winter actually, side streets were pretty much caked with ice in the burbs, busy roads probably weren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Then there's always the chance that it's right. We were thinking positive weren't we. I don't see it as such a jump in continuity. It was always pretty wet north of us. It has just trended the heavy precip further south. there is, but I wouldn't trust it until the GFS/Euro are on board.....I don't consider the Canadian to be support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Different as in better or worse for this type of scenario?. Different as in be careful about drawing conclusions from how it performed on a given situation a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 i'd give a lot higher odds it's close on temps compared to close on precip. it might lie somewhere in the middle but people can't conveniently disregard that the nam almost always runs high on precip. ..and for me, especially that we are so tight in precip gradient on the NAM. I've learned from watching Richmond that being near the southern edge of significant precip for any winter storm often leads to "underperforming"-- things go haywire-- you get sleet when it's supposed to be snow, etc. etc. We saw it ourselves last winter in the painful late February bust-- every model was about double or more what we actually ended up with in precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 there is, but I wouldn't trust it until the GFS/Euro are on board.....I don't consider the Canadian to be support Me either, Matt, but I'm determined to be positive no matter how many times I get kicked in the teeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Then there's always the chance that it's right. We were thinking positive weren't we. I don't see it as such a jump in continuity. It was always pretty wet north of us. It has just trended the heavy precip further south. I say let's keep the positive going and hug the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That's great, except the NAM in Jan2011 is significantly different than the operational NAM today. I'm aware it was updated, I was just curious what would be a more sensible move if the diversion between the GFS/Euro and NAM/RGEM continues? This storm could have monetary value to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 How long does it take for BUFKIT to update after the NAM is run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 ..and for me, especially that we are so tight in precip gradient on the NAM. I've learned from watching Richmond that being near the southern edge of significant precip for any winter storm often leads to "underperforming"-- things go haywire-- you get sleet when it's supposed to be snow, etc. etc. We saw it ourselves last winter in the painful late February bust-- every model was about double or more what we actually ended up with in precip. that's a solid point too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm aware it was updated, I was just curious what would be a more sensible move if the diversion between the GFS/Euro and NAM/RGEM continues? This storm could have monetary value to me. I'm not giving you financial advice...I think the fact that you are gambling on a weather event is silly....But when you have 2 superior models agreeing on 1 solution and 2 inferior models agreeing on another solution and one that doesnt necessarily make sense given the setup I think the answer is pretty clear....but there is still time to get some consensus...we have 0z tonight and then 3 runs tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm aware it was updated, I was just curious what would be a more sensible move if the diversion between the GFS/Euro and NAM/RGEM continues? This storm could have monetary value to me. I honestly don't know how to respond to that nor see the relation to your other comment. In a situation like this I would probably take the NAM over the GFS (generally speaking)....for the general idea and keeping in mind that the QPF is likely overdone. The only thing that makes me a little nervous is that it ran slightly too cold with the October event, which was shortly after the new NAM went into production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 does every model show .1"+ snow for most spots at this pt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 that's a solid point too.. That was going to be "our" storm finally, after the way the winter went. But of course it ended up overperforming for Philadelphia and they got the 5" while we were left praying that the radar would fill up as the back edge raced through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I do think, like some others evidently, that being in the heavier precip is key, obviously for any amount of winter precip, but also type and duration of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm not giving you financial advice...I think the fact that you are gambling on a weather event is silly....But when you have 2 superior models agreeing on 1 solution and 2 inferior models agreeing on another solution and one that doesnt necessarily make sense given the setup I think the answer is pretty clear....but there is still time to get some consensus...we have 0z tonight and then 3 runs tomorrow In a situation like this I would probably take the NAM over the GFS (generally speaking)....for the general idea and keeping in mind that the QPF is likely overdone. The only thing that makes me a little nervous is that it ran slightly too cold with the October event, which was shortly after the new NAM went into production. Thanks a bunch, I'll keep this in mind. I'm actually not gambling, it's the tree cutting thing, need to decide whether to set up to go out or stay in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thanks a bunch, I'll keep this in mind. I'm actually not gambling, it's the tree cutting thing, need to decide whether to set up to go out or stay in. we have all day tomorrow and even then the models may bust and will bust in some places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I honestly don't know how to respond to that nor see the relation to your other comment. In a situation like this I would probably take the NAM over the GFS (generally speaking)....for the general idea and keeping in mind that the QPF is likely overdone. The only thing that makes me a little nervous is that it ran slightly too cold with the October event, which was shortly after the new NAM went into production. so dismiss the NAM at 18z but 6 hours later when it has swung wildly and has no support yet it becomes the go to model?....ok... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 RGEM says we are either at rain or about to be rain at DCA 12z SAT... N and W still hanging on but barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I've got the Saturday forecast -- as usual for storm day. So I'll likely nail it. White rain???? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That was going to be "our" storm finally, after the way the winter went. But of course it ended up overperforming for Philadelphia and they got the 5" while we were left praying that the radar would fill up as the back edge raced through. One thing about that storm is that we had massive warmth to the south. I remember clearly that about 2 that day, while we were at 33 in Winchester and under a WSW, Charltottesville was 67 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 RGEM says we are either at rain or about to be rain at DCA 12z SAT... N and W still hanging on but barely So it is warmer than 18Z?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 RGEM says we are either at rain or about to be rain at DCA 12z SAT... N and W still hanging on but barely Still seems to be thumping snow for a little while there, Baltimore getting heavy snow for a few hours, then heavy mix/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I do think, like some others evidently, that being in the heavier precip is key, obviously for any amount of winter precip, but also type and duration of cold. Well if you are speaking in terms of ice...no heavier precip is not key. Heavy rain in near freezing temps will NOT accumulate ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 RGEM says we are either at rain or about to be rain at DCA 12z SAT... N and W still hanging on but barely maybe one day before I die or stop following weather, I will care what the Canadian models have to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 So it is warmer than 18Z. well its actually closer to the NAM, looks a little weird concerning the wedge, was somewhat unrealistic before, but still good for Baltimore, phin is in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 00z NAM BUFKIT: KIAD: 0.5 SN and 0.65 FZRA KMRB: 0.7 SN and 0.39 PL and 0.39 FZRA KBWI: 1.1 SN and 0.06 PL and 0.44 FZRA KDCA: 0.3 SN and 0.05 PL and 0.19 FZRA NOTE: .40 QPF comes in the form of rain at 32/33 degrees hrs 38-40 at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 maybe one day before I die or stop following weather, I will care what the Canadian models have to say lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well if you are speaking in terms of ice...no heavier precip is not key. Heavy rain in near freezing temps will NOT accumulate ice. I agree. I was thinking more in terms of snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 In the car coming home from a movie when I saw this gem. I laughed so hard that my gf almost went into a ditch. Not sure what is so funny? To each his own I guess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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