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Jan 21 event


Ian

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Seattle's now about 6 hours and counting past the forecasted timing of rising above freezing from this morning's forecast. Not saying anything about here, but they've even switched back to snow and are at 28.

i'd give a lot higher odds it's close on temps compared to close on precip. it might lie somewhere in the middle but people can't conveniently disregard that the nam almost always runs high on precip.

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But that's the thing-- that just does not happen. Have YOU ever seen 1/4"+ of solid ice on the streets? Not driveways, not sidewalks, but the actual roads? I really can't recall a single ice storm where there was more than the initial glaze on roads.... once the rain comes down hard enough, it just doesn't build up on the road surfaces anymore.

It was about this time last winter actually, side streets were pretty much caked with ice in the burbs, busy roads probably weren't.

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Then there's always the chance that it's right. We were thinking positive weren't we. I don't see it as such a jump in continuity. It was always pretty wet north of us. It has just trended the heavy precip further south.

there is, but I wouldn't trust it until the GFS/Euro are on board.....I don't consider the Canadian to be support

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i'd give a lot higher odds it's close on temps compared to close on precip. it might lie somewhere in the middle but people can't conveniently disregard that the nam almost always runs high on precip.

..and for me, especially that we are so tight in precip gradient on the NAM. I've learned from watching Richmond that being near the southern edge of significant precip for any winter storm often leads to "underperforming"-- things go haywire-- you get sleet when it's supposed to be snow, etc. etc.

We saw it ourselves last winter in the painful late February bust-- every model was about double or more what we actually ended up with in precip.

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..and for me, especially that we are so tight in precip gradient on the NAM. I've learned from watching Richmond that being near the southern edge of significant precip for any winter storm often leads to "underperforming"-- things go haywire-- you get sleet when it's supposed to be snow, etc. etc.

We saw it ourselves last winter in the painful late February bust-- every model was about double or more what we actually ended up with in precip.

that's a solid point too..

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I'm aware it was updated, I was just curious what would be a more sensible move if the diversion between the GFS/Euro and NAM/RGEM continues?

This storm could have monetary value to me.

I'm not giving you financial advice...I think the fact that you are gambling on a weather event is silly....But when you have 2 superior models agreeing on 1 solution and 2 inferior models agreeing on another solution and one that doesnt necessarily make sense given the setup I think the answer is pretty clear....but there is still time to get some consensus...we have 0z tonight and then 3 runs tomorrow

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I'm aware it was updated, I was just curious what would be a more sensible move if the diversion between the GFS/Euro and NAM/RGEM continues?

This storm could have monetary value to me.

I honestly don't know how to respond to that nor see the relation to your other comment.

In a situation like this I would probably take the NAM over the GFS (generally speaking)....for the general idea and keeping in mind that the QPF is likely overdone. The only thing that makes me a little nervous is that it ran slightly too cold with the October event, which was shortly after the new NAM went into production.

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I'm not giving you financial advice...I think the fact that you are gambling on a weather event is silly....But when you have 2 superior models agreeing on 1 solution and 2 inferior models agreeing on another solution and one that doesnt necessarily make sense given the setup I think the answer is pretty clear....but there is still time to get some consensus...we have 0z tonight and then 3 runs tomorrow

In a situation like this I would probably take the NAM over the GFS (generally speaking)....for the general idea and keeping in mind that the QPF is likely overdone. The only thing that makes me a little nervous is that it ran slightly too cold with the October event, which was shortly after the new NAM went into production.

Thanks a bunch, I'll keep this in mind. I'm actually not gambling, it's the tree cutting thing, need to decide whether to set up to go out or stay in.

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I honestly don't know how to respond to that nor see the relation to your other comment.

In a situation like this I would probably take the NAM over the GFS (generally speaking)....for the general idea and keeping in mind that the QPF is likely overdone. The only thing that makes me a little nervous is that it ran slightly too cold with the October event, which was shortly after the new NAM went into production.

so dismiss the NAM at 18z but 6 hours later when it has swung wildly and has no support yet it becomes the go to model?....ok...

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That was going to be "our" storm finally, after the way the winter went. But of course it ended up overperforming for Philadelphia and they got the 5" while we were left praying that the radar would fill up as the back edge raced through.

One thing about that storm is that we had massive warmth to the south. I remember clearly that about 2 that day, while we were at 33 in Winchester and under a WSW, Charltottesville was 67 degrees.

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I do think, like some others evidently, that being in the heavier precip is key, obviously for any amount of winter precip, but also type and duration of cold.

Well if you are speaking in terms of ice...no heavier precip is not key. Heavy rain in near freezing temps will NOT accumulate ice.

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