Grothar of Herndon Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's fun to look at, but no matter how optimistic you want to be and no matter how bad we want it....it's the NAM..it has swung wildy in six hours. It's exciting to look at, but the GFS is probably the way to go here. We all know how the NAM likes to do this, and yet we start going full Oscar Myer. I am off the reality train and hugging the NAM until another model gives me something better to huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I do not know how it is in DC but trust me come up to Baltimore and try to drive with a 1/4" of ice and you will change your mind. But that's the thing-- that just does not happen. Have YOU ever seen 1/4"+ of solid ice on the streets? Not driveways, not sidewalks, but the actual roads? I really can't recall a single ice storm where there was more than the initial glaze on roads.... once the rain comes down hard enough, it just doesn't build up on the road surfaces anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 1/17-18 was a legit event....It all depends on your context....As a weather lover who doesn't own a car it delivered....It was nasty in the late evening and early morning hours....The streets and sidewalks were caked......That is what I care about....In DC a lot of great weather events aren't great the next day or even hours later...so it depends on your context....I am not saying Ian or anyone else should have gotten out of bed on a Monday night to walk around in sleet and freezing rain..people have jobs and reponsibilities.....I try to be out in every event but there are still events I miss.....I just know from years in DC you can't wake up hours after an event and say it wasn't a big deal....Our "aftermaths" are often pretty pathetic....I am glad it looks like this one might start early enough on a Friday night that many of us can get out and experience it.... not that it matters but im not sure i downplayed it that heavily even if i am a serial downplayer. this is a pic i posted to flickr. i do recall as far as anything not elevated it was not a big deal as i walked into work. Icicles in the a.m., puddles soon after The highest impact event of winter 10-11 thus far. Not much snow, but plenty of ice overnight Jan 17-18.. even into the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 nam is king of run to run bouncing I think this is at least partly because of the partial cycling procedure that is used (twice a day (I think) they go back 12 hours, start fresh from a GFS state, and then re-cycle up to analysis time using 3hrly NAM updates). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hard to believe the NAM QPF, but being about 1 day out from the event I'd think NAM would be trusted with CAD more than the GFS and Euro combined? The Euro in January 2011 had us all going over to rain by about 3AM if I remember correctly, NAM nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hey, either way, isn't it nice to be tracking something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 But that's the thing-- that just does not happen. Have YOU ever seen 1/4"+ of solid ice on the streets? Not driveways, not sidewalks, but the actual roads? I really can't recall a single ice storm where there was more than the initial glaze on roads.... once the rain comes down hard enough, it just doesn't build up on the road surfaces anymore. My memory is horrible with these kind of things but i am 36 and i remember alot of ice storms over the years. The one in 99 i think had probably close to 1/4" even on the roads but most of the time it is nearly impossible to get that much accretion on the actual roadways, especially the major roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 But that's the thing-- that just does not happen. Have YOU ever seen 1/4"+ of solid ice on the streets? Not driveways, not sidewalks, but the actual roads? I really can't recall a single ice storm where there was more than the initial glaze on roads.... once the rain comes down hard enough, it just doesn't build up on the road surfaces anymore. Not the case in my neighborhood. Just saying. Have had several cases in my lifetime (I'm 20) where the entire road has pretty much been an ice rink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 1/17-18 was a legit event....It all depends on your context....As a weather lover who doesn't own a car it delivered....It was nasty in the late evening and early morning hours....The streets and sidewalks were caked......That is what I care about....In DC a lot of great weather events aren't great the next day or even hours later...so it depends on your context....I am not saying Ian or anyone else should have gotten out of bed on a Monday night to walk around in sleet and freezing rain..people have jobs and reponsibilities.....I try to be out in every event but there are still events I miss.....I just know from years in DC you can't wake up hours after an event and say it wasn't a big deal....Our "aftermaths" are often pretty pathetic....I am glad it looks like this one might start early enough on a Friday night that many of us can get out and experience it.... Yup, in terms of driving impact though, I've noticed for DC, it's the freezing drizzle events that are much worse... I guess because sometimes it comes in ahead of salting. 1/14/99-- the morning before the ice storm started-- driving was terrible because of freezing drizzle. Same thing with the Mixing Bowl debacle in 2/12/08-- it was the freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 that cold air means business we haven't seen such an expansive area of cold to our north with some confluence any other time this winter http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=te&inv=0&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar NAM shouldn't be dismissed yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 My memory is horrible with these kind of things but i am 36 and i remember alot of ice storms over the years. The one in 99 i think had probably close to 1/4" even on the roads but most of the time it is nearly impossible to get that much accretion on the actual roadways, especially the major roads. im sure treatment has improved in the years since then for one, plus it matters at least a little how much snow/sleet you get before hand. even then it seems like it would mainly be the lightly traveled/remote roads that get any sort of ice accum.. at least till you start getting into really cold temps, tho even then treatment will work wonders. i remember getting zr in ct with temps in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hard to believe the NAM QPF, but being about 1 day out from the event I'd think NAM would be trusted with CAD more than the GFS and Euro combined? The Euro in January 2011 had us all going over to rain by about 3AM if I remember correctly, NAM nailed it. That's great, except the NAM in Jan2011 is significantly different than the operational NAM today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 that had a 1048 high pressure in perfect position...there was no chance of scouring out that air mass Oh i understand we have no chance to get that kind of storm in this setup. Do you remember any ice storm similar to that one in the early 80's?, i searched online and could not find it but i swear it was bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Then there's always the chance that it's right. We were thinking positive weren't we. I don't see it as such a jump in continuity. It was always pretty wet north of us. It has just trended the heavy precip further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 that cold air means business we haven't seen such an expansive area of cold to our north with some confluence any other time this winter http://weather.unisy...anddiv=hide_bar NAM shouldn't be dismissed yet Seattle's now about 6 hours and counting past the forecasted timing of rising above freezing from this morning's forecast. Not saying anything about here, but they've even switched back to snow and are at 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That's great, except the NAM in Jan2011 is significantly different than the operational NAM today. Different as in better or worse for this type of scenario?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Seattle's now about 6 hours and counting past the forecasted timing of rising above freezing from this morning's forecast. Not saying anything about here, but they've even switched back to snow and are at 28. i'd give a lot higher odds it's close on temps compared to close on precip. it might lie somewhere in the middle but people can't conveniently disregard that the nam almost always runs high on precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 But that's the thing-- that just does not happen. Have YOU ever seen 1/4"+ of solid ice on the streets? Not driveways, not sidewalks, but the actual roads? I really can't recall a single ice storm where there was more than the initial glaze on roads.... once the rain comes down hard enough, it just doesn't build up on the road surfaces anymore. It was about this time last winter actually, side streets were pretty much caked with ice in the burbs, busy roads probably weren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Different as in better or worse for this type of scenario?. Different as in be careful about drawing conclusions from how it performed on a given situation a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 i'd give a lot higher odds it's close on temps compared to close on precip. it might lie somewhere in the middle but people can't conveniently disregard that the nam almost always runs high on precip. ..and for me, especially that we are so tight in precip gradient on the NAM. I've learned from watching Richmond that being near the southern edge of significant precip for any winter storm often leads to "underperforming"-- things go haywire-- you get sleet when it's supposed to be snow, etc. etc. We saw it ourselves last winter in the painful late February bust-- every model was about double or more what we actually ended up with in precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 there is, but I wouldn't trust it until the GFS/Euro are on board.....I don't consider the Canadian to be support Me either, Matt, but I'm determined to be positive no matter how many times I get kicked in the teeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Then there's always the chance that it's right. We were thinking positive weren't we. I don't see it as such a jump in continuity. It was always pretty wet north of us. It has just trended the heavy precip further south. I say let's keep the positive going and hug the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That's great, except the NAM in Jan2011 is significantly different than the operational NAM today. I'm aware it was updated, I was just curious what would be a more sensible move if the diversion between the GFS/Euro and NAM/RGEM continues? This storm could have monetary value to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 How long does it take for BUFKIT to update after the NAM is run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 ..and for me, especially that we are so tight in precip gradient on the NAM. I've learned from watching Richmond that being near the southern edge of significant precip for any winter storm often leads to "underperforming"-- things go haywire-- you get sleet when it's supposed to be snow, etc. etc. We saw it ourselves last winter in the painful late February bust-- every model was about double or more what we actually ended up with in precip. that's a solid point too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm aware it was updated, I was just curious what would be a more sensible move if the diversion between the GFS/Euro and NAM/RGEM continues? This storm could have monetary value to me. I honestly don't know how to respond to that nor see the relation to your other comment. In a situation like this I would probably take the NAM over the GFS (generally speaking)....for the general idea and keeping in mind that the QPF is likely overdone. The only thing that makes me a little nervous is that it ran slightly too cold with the October event, which was shortly after the new NAM went into production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 does every model show .1"+ snow for most spots at this pt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 that's a solid point too.. That was going to be "our" storm finally, after the way the winter went. But of course it ended up overperforming for Philadelphia and they got the 5" while we were left praying that the radar would fill up as the back edge raced through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I do think, like some others evidently, that being in the heavier precip is key, obviously for any amount of winter precip, but also type and duration of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm not giving you financial advice...I think the fact that you are gambling on a weather event is silly....But when you have 2 superior models agreeing on 1 solution and 2 inferior models agreeing on another solution and one that doesnt necessarily make sense given the setup I think the answer is pretty clear....but there is still time to get some consensus...we have 0z tonight and then 3 runs tomorrow In a situation like this I would probably take the NAM over the GFS (generally speaking)....for the general idea and keeping in mind that the QPF is likely overdone. The only thing that makes me a little nervous is that it ran slightly too cold with the October event, which was shortly after the new NAM went into production. Thanks a bunch, I'll keep this in mind. I'm actually not gambling, it's the tree cutting thing, need to decide whether to set up to go out or stay in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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