ravensrule Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm right about most things. But yeah.. ice storm flipouts are usually lol. I'll give some props to 1/2" ice but I remember driving around in more than that up north with little problem. Granted, it's dealt with different here. But even on the NAM the big problems are mainly bridges etc. I'm sure some large limbs / weak trees etc might come down too but nothing tragic. I do not know how it is in DC but trust me come up to Baltimore and try to drive with a 1/4" of ice and you will change your mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 One thing is for sure, CWG will under-forecast the event no matter what happens. Ian is now really mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I remember the 1999 ice storm vaguely, the line of bradford pears across the street then all basically fell apart. Stupid tree to plant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm not being a negator, but the NAM tends to take this wild swing SOUTH a couple days out (have never charted 36 hours out) taken literal down here, it's warning level icing as well-- can't say I think it can be that bad, but I CAN see it being an advisory level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm right about most things. But yeah.. ice storm flipouts are usually lol. I'll give some props to 1/2" ice but I remember driving around in more than that up north with little problem. Granted, it's dealt with different here. But even on the NAM the big problems are mainly bridges etc. I'm sure some large limbs / weak trees etc might come down too but nothing tragic. You apologize to those tree families for downplaying the loss of their limbs and weak offspring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 I do not know how it is in DC but trust me come up to Baltimore and try to drive with a 1/4" of ice and you will change your mind. Well maybe I stepped a smidge far there but all along I've said under a certain level like gymengineer refers to the main problem is driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm right about most things. But yeah.. ice storm flipouts are usually lol. I'll give some props to 1/2" ice but I remember driving around in more than that up north with little problem. Granted, it's dealt with different here. But even on the NAM the big problems are mainly bridges etc. I'm sure some large limbs / weak trees etc might come down too but nothing tragic. agreed, We were driving around the next day after the big one in 2008. sure we have to avoid some trees and wires but the roads werent icy at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 One thing is for sure, CWG will under-forecast the event no matter what happens. Ian is now really mad. I've got the Saturday forecast -- as usual for storm day. So I'll likely nail it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm right about most things. But yeah.. ice storm flipouts are usually lol. I'll give some props to 1/2" ice but I remember driving around in more than that up north with little problem. Granted, it's dealt with different here. But even on the NAM the big problems are mainly bridges etc. I'm sure some large limbs / weak trees etc might come down too but nothing tragic. Yup in the Super Tuesday '08 storm, there *was* a healthy 0.25" to 0.5" of ice on the sidewalks, yet really nothing on the roads after any treatment. Nikolai was bitterly complaining about how he only had a 2-hr delay 'cause he was slipping and sliding on the sidewalks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well maybe I stepped a smidge far there but all along I've said under a certain level like gymengineer refers to the main problem is driving. Totally agreed until you get over 1/2" there are not many problems except for driving and old people slipping on ice which can be tragic for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 You ARE right about ice storms.. at least once a season, there's some flipout about a MAJOR impending ice event. I remember your statement last season-- that you stepped outside and couldn't even tell it had "ice-stormed" overnight. Again, the last MAJOR ice storm we had was all the way back in January 1999. The Super-Tuesday ice storm (2/08) was pretty to look at, but it didn't really cause much disruption or power outages. 1/17-18 was a legit event....It all depends on your context....As a weather lover who doesn't own a car it delivered....It was nasty in the late evening and early morning hours....The streets and sidewalks were caked......That is what I care about....In DC a lot of great weather events aren't great the next day or even hours later...so it depends on your context....I am not saying Ian or anyone else should have gotten out of bed on a Monday night to walk around in sleet and freezing rain..people have jobs and reponsibilities.....I try to be out in every event but there are still events I miss.....I just know from years in DC you can't wake up hours after an event and say it wasn't a big deal....Our "aftermaths" are often pretty pathetic....I am glad it looks like this one might start early enough on a Friday night that many of us can get out and experience it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's fun to look at, but no matter how optimistic you want to be and no matter how bad we want it....it's the NAM..it has swung wildy in six hours. It's exciting to look at, but the GFS is probably the way to go here. We all know how the NAM likes to do this, and yet we start going full Oscar Myer. I am off the reality train and hugging the NAM until another model gives me something better to huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I do not know how it is in DC but trust me come up to Baltimore and try to drive with a 1/4" of ice and you will change your mind. But that's the thing-- that just does not happen. Have YOU ever seen 1/4"+ of solid ice on the streets? Not driveways, not sidewalks, but the actual roads? I really can't recall a single ice storm where there was more than the initial glaze on roads.... once the rain comes down hard enough, it just doesn't build up on the road surfaces anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That Jan 99 storm was brutal, i lost power for a week. There was another nasty ice storm i think in the early 80's when i was a kid because i remember i had to slide on my behind to get to the bottom of my block to get in my mother's car. that had a 1048 high pressure in perfect position...there was no chance of scouring out that air mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 1/17-18 was a legit event....It all depends on your context....As a weather lover who doesn't own a car it delivered....It was nasty in the late evening and early morning hours....The streets and sidewalks were caked......That is what I care about....In DC a lot of great weather events aren't great the next day or even hours later...so it depends on your context....I am not saying Ian or anyone else should have gotten out of bed on a Monday night to walk around in sleet and freezing rain..people have jobs and reponsibilities.....I try to be out in every event but there are still events I miss.....I just know from years in DC you can't wake up hours after an event and say it wasn't a big deal....Our "aftermaths" are often pretty pathetic....I am glad it looks like this one might start early enough on a Friday night that many of us can get out and experience it.... not that it matters but im not sure i downplayed it that heavily even if i am a serial downplayer. this is a pic i posted to flickr. i do recall as far as anything not elevated it was not a big deal as i walked into work. Icicles in the a.m., puddles soon after The highest impact event of winter 10-11 thus far. Not much snow, but plenty of ice overnight Jan 17-18.. even into the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 nam is king of run to run bouncing I think this is at least partly because of the partial cycling procedure that is used (twice a day (I think) they go back 12 hours, start fresh from a GFS state, and then re-cycle up to analysis time using 3hrly NAM updates). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hard to believe the NAM QPF, but being about 1 day out from the event I'd think NAM would be trusted with CAD more than the GFS and Euro combined? The Euro in January 2011 had us all going over to rain by about 3AM if I remember correctly, NAM nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hey, either way, isn't it nice to be tracking something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 But that's the thing-- that just does not happen. Have YOU ever seen 1/4"+ of solid ice on the streets? Not driveways, not sidewalks, but the actual roads? I really can't recall a single ice storm where there was more than the initial glaze on roads.... once the rain comes down hard enough, it just doesn't build up on the road surfaces anymore. My memory is horrible with these kind of things but i am 36 and i remember alot of ice storms over the years. The one in 99 i think had probably close to 1/4" even on the roads but most of the time it is nearly impossible to get that much accretion on the actual roadways, especially the major roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 But that's the thing-- that just does not happen. Have YOU ever seen 1/4"+ of solid ice on the streets? Not driveways, not sidewalks, but the actual roads? I really can't recall a single ice storm where there was more than the initial glaze on roads.... once the rain comes down hard enough, it just doesn't build up on the road surfaces anymore. Not the case in my neighborhood. Just saying. Have had several cases in my lifetime (I'm 20) where the entire road has pretty much been an ice rink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 1/17-18 was a legit event....It all depends on your context....As a weather lover who doesn't own a car it delivered....It was nasty in the late evening and early morning hours....The streets and sidewalks were caked......That is what I care about....In DC a lot of great weather events aren't great the next day or even hours later...so it depends on your context....I am not saying Ian or anyone else should have gotten out of bed on a Monday night to walk around in sleet and freezing rain..people have jobs and reponsibilities.....I try to be out in every event but there are still events I miss.....I just know from years in DC you can't wake up hours after an event and say it wasn't a big deal....Our "aftermaths" are often pretty pathetic....I am glad it looks like this one might start early enough on a Friday night that many of us can get out and experience it.... Yup, in terms of driving impact though, I've noticed for DC, it's the freezing drizzle events that are much worse... I guess because sometimes it comes in ahead of salting. 1/14/99-- the morning before the ice storm started-- driving was terrible because of freezing drizzle. Same thing with the Mixing Bowl debacle in 2/12/08-- it was the freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 that cold air means business we haven't seen such an expansive area of cold to our north with some confluence any other time this winter http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=te&inv=0&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar NAM shouldn't be dismissed yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 My memory is horrible with these kind of things but i am 36 and i remember alot of ice storms over the years. The one in 99 i think had probably close to 1/4" even on the roads but most of the time it is nearly impossible to get that much accretion on the actual roadways, especially the major roads. im sure treatment has improved in the years since then for one, plus it matters at least a little how much snow/sleet you get before hand. even then it seems like it would mainly be the lightly traveled/remote roads that get any sort of ice accum.. at least till you start getting into really cold temps, tho even then treatment will work wonders. i remember getting zr in ct with temps in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hard to believe the NAM QPF, but being about 1 day out from the event I'd think NAM would be trusted with CAD more than the GFS and Euro combined? The Euro in January 2011 had us all going over to rain by about 3AM if I remember correctly, NAM nailed it. That's great, except the NAM in Jan2011 is significantly different than the operational NAM today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 not that it matters but im not sure i downplayed it that heavily even if i am a serial downplayer. this is a pic i posted to flickr. i do recall as far as anything not elevated it was not a big deal as i walked into work. Icicles in the a.m., puddles soon after The highest impact event of winter 10-11 thus far. Not much snow, but plenty of ice overnight Jan 17-18.. even into the city. http://www.flickr.co...ton/5369154318/ i dont think you downplayed it either, but it was just one of those events you had to be out in to appreciate....because the aftermath was kind of lame compared to the early morning hours....I had the good "fortune" to be able to "play" in it because my schedule allowed it...I don't expect anyone who isn't mentally ill to get out of bed at 2am and walk around in the rain when they have to be up 5 hours later and go to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 that had a 1048 high pressure in perfect position...there was no chance of scouring out that air mass Oh i understand we have no chance to get that kind of storm in this setup. Do you remember any ice storm similar to that one in the early 80's?, i searched online and could not find it but i swear it was bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Then there's always the chance that it's right. We were thinking positive weren't we. I don't see it as such a jump in continuity. It was always pretty wet north of us. It has just trended the heavy precip further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 that cold air means business we haven't seen such an expansive area of cold to our north with some confluence any other time this winter http://weather.unisy...anddiv=hide_bar NAM shouldn't be dismissed yet Seattle's now about 6 hours and counting past the forecasted timing of rising above freezing from this morning's forecast. Not saying anything about here, but they've even switched back to snow and are at 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That's great, except the NAM in Jan2011 is significantly different than the operational NAM today. Different as in better or worse for this type of scenario?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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