Fozz Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I don't think he was alive when that song came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I dont trust it at all...It just swung wildly in 6 hrs.....I realize it has better resolution and may handle certain features better, but I would definitely lean toward the Euro/GFS until we see them change well, the SW was just off shore at 0Z (you happy Ian?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Verbatim NAM could be about 1/2" of ZR for someone which is enough to be a pain in the butt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 ouch IF CORRECT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 well, the SW was just off shore at 0Z (you happy Ian?) its way on its own with qpf and it's swinging wildly there at least.. so yeah. gotta side with the ggem over the nam for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 LOL -- look in MD... 0.25-0.50 QPF... WSW ice citeria for them this run The last "real" ice storm in the area (2/12-13/08) had liquid equivalents of 0.75-1.5" across the area for a max of about 0.5" of ice thickness. 1/14-15/99 was about 1" liquid equivalent too. Those are major ice storms.. last year's was not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I dont trust it at all...It just swung wildly in 6 hrs.....I realize it has better resolution and may handle certain features better, but I would definitely lean toward the Euro/GFS until we see them change I generally agree with this. But I usually can tell the NAM is catching on when it stops putting an exaggerated rain shadow over my area, which it always does hrs 24-60. I'm sure the QPF is overdone, but I'd still lean toward it when its coming into line with other models on its precip fields, and hope it has the temp profile more correct since it should be a good short-range model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 its way on its own with qpf and it's swinging wildly there at least.. so yeah. gotta side with the ggem over the nam for now. just hit the west coast about 1/2 hr ago looks like we'll need to stay up for 6Z http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 its way on its own with qpf and it's swinging wildly there at least.. so yeah. gotta side with the ggem over the nam for now. That's also a lot of QPF for weak system. I'd go with whatever the GFS does precip-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 The last "real" ice storm in the area (2/12-13/08) had liquid equivalents of 0.75-1.5" across the area for a max of about 0.5" of ice thickness. 1/14-15/99 was about 1" liquid equivalent too. Those are major ice storms.. last year's was not. yeah that's a good point.. it won't all accrete even if that lvl qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 its way on its own with qpf and it's swinging wildly there at least.. so yeah. gotta side with the ggem over the nam for now. It's about time you came to your senses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 yeah that's a good point.. it won't all accrete even if that lvl qpf Right-- you can't just take the model QPF printout and say that's the thickness of the ice around tree branches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 RGEM and GFS up next... should be interesting to see if the GFS follows the NAM with its temp profile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 yeah that's a good point.. it won't all accrete even if that lvl qpf Well also a question of rates. Mod-heavy generally won't accrete well with near freezing temps. For people who want ice, they want a light rain for max accumulation of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 RGEM and GFS up next... should be interesting to see if the GFS follows the NAM with its temp profile What will Ian do if the GFS has the same QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The NAM is ludicrous.... WV Climo and TRixie get pummeled....They are in the low 20s when the precip starts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 better flow over NE/SE Canada http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F20%2F2012+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L it's reflected in the qpf pattern too http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F20%2F2012+00UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p36&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=051&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 What will Ian do if the GFS has the same QPF? smother yoda after he posts about a catastrophic ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 What will Ian do if the GFS has the same QPF? look like your avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The NAM is ludicrous.... WV Climo and TRixie get pummeled....They are in the low 20s when the precip starts... 33/13 here today with a fresh air mass arriving tomorrow and clouds limiting the afternoon highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 smother yoda after he posts about a catastrophic ice storm You ARE right about ice storms.. at least once a season, there's some flipout about a MAJOR impending ice event. I remember your statement last season-- that you stepped outside and couldn't even tell it had "ice-stormed" overnight. Again, the last MAJOR ice storm we had was all the way back in January 1999. The Super-Tuesday ice storm (2/08) was pretty to look at, but it didn't really cause much disruption or power outages. Edited to add: Although, they are kind of neat to track because more often than not, the transition to plain rain takes longer than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 look like your avatar - I could see Ian doing that. Back on topic - I'm just looking forward to whatever mess I get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 What will Ian do if the GFS has the same QPF? It will not, max the GFS has is .50 and even that is probably a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well also a question of rates. Mod-heavy generally won't accrete well with near freezing temps. For people who want ice, they want a light rain for max accumulation of ice. Exactly. In the 12/08 Ice storm up north, it was 27-29* for hours on end with just a steady rain, nothing heavy. Except it stayed at the steady to light rate overnight into the morning and i posted a few pics in the other thread. It would be tough to get that here except with the ideal set up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It will not, max the GFS has is .50 and even that is probably a stretch. Yeah I know. But I just want Ian to be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 You ARE right about ice storms.. at least once a season, there's some flipout about a MAJOR impending ice event. I remember your statement last season-- that you stepped outside and couldn't even tell it had "ice-stormed" overnight. Again, the last MAJOR ice storm we had was all the way back in January 1999. The Super-Tuesday ice storm (2/08) was pretty to look at, but it didn't really cause much disruption or power outages. That Jan 99 storm was brutal, i lost power for a week. There was another nasty ice storm i think in the early 80's when i was a kid because i remember i had to slide on my behind to get to the bottom of my block to get in my mother's car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 interesting looks like the High pressure holds on over NNE/Canada through 60hrs on the NAM; 850 warm but low levels remain cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's fun to look at, but no matter how optimistic you want to be and no matter how bad we want it....it's the NAM..it has swung wildy in six hours. It's exciting to look at, but the GFS is probably the way to go here. We all know how the NAM likes to do this, and yet we start going full Oscar Myer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 You ARE right about ice storms.. at least once a season, there's some flipout about a MAJOR impending ice event. I remember your statement last season-- that you stepped outside and couldn't even tell it had "ice-stormed" overnight. Again, the last MAJOR ice storm we had was all the way back in January 1999. The Super-Tuesday ice storm (2/08) was pretty to look at, but it didn't really cause much disruption or power outages. I'm right about most things. But yeah.. ice storm flipouts are usually lol. I'll give some props to 1/2" ice but I remember driving around in more than that up north with little problem. Granted, it's dealt with different here. But even on the NAM the big problems are mainly bridges etc. I'm sure some large limbs / weak trees etc might come down too but nothing tragic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Edited to add: Although, they are kind of neat to track because more often than not, the transition to plain rain takes longer than forecast. I'd take a solid ice storm over a sleetstorm any day. Sleet is the worst precip type in the history of precip types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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