yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 00z NAM looks like MAJOR Ice Storm... by 36 hrs CAD holds strong... N VA and DC north still below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20120120/00/nam_namer_033_10m_wnd_precip.gif - 33 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20120120/00/nam_namer_036_10m_wnd_precip.gif -- 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'll take it, running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I meant hr 30 Wes... didn't know if you caught my edit... I don't have 36 yet I looked at 7AM and FDK is still sleet while IAD is freezing rain. It a colder run even than the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks colder and faster with the precip which should make Matt happy and Bob Ryan worried. Shows how this early the models will vacillate around a solution. Bob really likes looking at the SREF I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 yes...it is way colder...no continuity from 18z nam is king of run to run bouncing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 nam is king of run to run bouncing queue: has the short wave come ashore yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 yes...it is way colder...no continuity from 18z NAM is in its range now. I never trust it past 36hrs+, but usually it catches on at 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 hour 39 is devastation lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 00z NAM looks like MAJOR Ice Storm... by 36 hrs CAD holds strong... N VA and DC north still below freezing LOL- it's not major anything as depicted. Look at how close we are to the southern edge of significant precip, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 LOL- it's not major anything as depicted. Look at how close to the southern edge of significant precip, LOL -- look in MD... 0.25-0.50 QPF... WSW ice citeria for them this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 hour 39 is devastation lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 39 is impressive. Maybe not DC proper, but anywhere N and W. So many NAM runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 LOL- it's not major anything as depicted. Look at how close we are to the southern edge of significant precip, sure we're close, but the sim rad isn't bad, rh values are naso bad either, and if it jumps any more south, we're talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 LOL- it's not major anything as depicted. Look at how close we are to the southern edge of significant precip, For us unfortunate PEPCO folk, it's kinda major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 really pushed south this run still at or below freezing at 39hrs with decent qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 hour 39 is devastation lol Lets not get carried away here with devastation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 1/2"+ ice n/nw is legit but the nam is probably still wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 >.75" qpf youzer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 39 is impressive. Maybe not DC proper, but anywhere N and W. So many NAM runs to go. Immediate suburbs just N and W will likely be 30/31... DCA prob 32. By 42 we all go to rain FWIW.... even BWI/FDK/HGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I don't think he was alive when that song came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I dont trust it at all...It just swung wildly in 6 hrs.....I realize it has better resolution and may handle certain features better, but I would definitely lean toward the Euro/GFS until we see them change well, the SW was just off shore at 0Z (you happy Ian?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Verbatim NAM could be about 1/2" of ZR for someone which is enough to be a pain in the butt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 ouch IF CORRECT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 well, the SW was just off shore at 0Z (you happy Ian?) its way on its own with qpf and it's swinging wildly there at least.. so yeah. gotta side with the ggem over the nam for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 LOL -- look in MD... 0.25-0.50 QPF... WSW ice citeria for them this run The last "real" ice storm in the area (2/12-13/08) had liquid equivalents of 0.75-1.5" across the area for a max of about 0.5" of ice thickness. 1/14-15/99 was about 1" liquid equivalent too. Those are major ice storms.. last year's was not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I dont trust it at all...It just swung wildly in 6 hrs.....I realize it has better resolution and may handle certain features better, but I would definitely lean toward the Euro/GFS until we see them change I generally agree with this. But I usually can tell the NAM is catching on when it stops putting an exaggerated rain shadow over my area, which it always does hrs 24-60. I'm sure the QPF is overdone, but I'd still lean toward it when its coming into line with other models on its precip fields, and hope it has the temp profile more correct since it should be a good short-range model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 its way on its own with qpf and it's swinging wildly there at least.. so yeah. gotta side with the ggem over the nam for now. just hit the west coast about 1/2 hr ago looks like we'll need to stay up for 6Z http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 its way on its own with qpf and it's swinging wildly there at least.. so yeah. gotta side with the ggem over the nam for now. That's also a lot of QPF for weak system. I'd go with whatever the GFS does precip-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 The last "real" ice storm in the area (2/12-13/08) had liquid equivalents of 0.75-1.5" across the area for a max of about 0.5" of ice thickness. 1/14-15/99 was about 1" liquid equivalent too. Those are major ice storms.. last year's was not. yeah that's a good point.. it won't all accrete even if that lvl qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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