MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not bad, a few hours of snow on the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Snow/sleet N VA/DC/MD hr 27-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Snow/sleet N VA/DC/MD hr 36 Looks colder and faster with the precip which should make Matt happy and Bob Ryan worried. Shows how this early the models will vacillate around a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks colder and faster with the precip which should make Matt happy and Bob Ryan worried. Shows how this early the models will vacillate around a solution. I meant hr 30 Wes... didn't know if you caught my edit... I don't have 36 yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nice NAM........looks like my area manages to squeeze in 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Ouch at 33 on 00z NAM... 0.25 QPF in W MD toward HGR... could be all ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 1-2'' Baltimore, sfc temps cold meaning icy for the metro after the snow, much colder than last run and wetter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I am not folding my winter cards yet for this winter. I can say as everyone in the area would, we have been given a crappy hand of cards this winter. The more and more I see on this event, the more and more its a no go. Better luck next time, if there is a next time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 00z NAM looks like MAJOR Ice Storm... by 36 hrs CAD holds strong... N VA and DC north still below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks colder and faster with the precip which should make Matt happy and Bob Ryan worried. Shows how this early the models will vacillate around a solution. yes...it is way colder...no continuity from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20120120/00/nam_namer_033_10m_wnd_precip.gif - 33 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20120120/00/nam_namer_036_10m_wnd_precip.gif -- 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'll take it, running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I meant hr 30 Wes... didn't know if you caught my edit... I don't have 36 yet I looked at 7AM and FDK is still sleet while IAD is freezing rain. It a colder run even than the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks colder and faster with the precip which should make Matt happy and Bob Ryan worried. Shows how this early the models will vacillate around a solution. Bob really likes looking at the SREF I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 yes...it is way colder...no continuity from 18z nam is king of run to run bouncing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 nam is king of run to run bouncing queue: has the short wave come ashore yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 yes...it is way colder...no continuity from 18z NAM is in its range now. I never trust it past 36hrs+, but usually it catches on at 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 hour 39 is devastation lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 00z NAM looks like MAJOR Ice Storm... by 36 hrs CAD holds strong... N VA and DC north still below freezing LOL- it's not major anything as depicted. Look at how close we are to the southern edge of significant precip, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 LOL- it's not major anything as depicted. Look at how close to the southern edge of significant precip, LOL -- look in MD... 0.25-0.50 QPF... WSW ice citeria for them this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 hour 39 is devastation lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 39 is impressive. Maybe not DC proper, but anywhere N and W. So many NAM runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 LOL- it's not major anything as depicted. Look at how close we are to the southern edge of significant precip, sure we're close, but the sim rad isn't bad, rh values are naso bad either, and if it jumps any more south, we're talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 LOL- it's not major anything as depicted. Look at how close we are to the southern edge of significant precip, For us unfortunate PEPCO folk, it's kinda major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 really pushed south this run still at or below freezing at 39hrs with decent qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM is in its range now. I never trust it past 36hrs+, but usually it catches on at 24. I dont trust it at all...It just swung wildly in 6 hrs.....I realize it has better resolution and may handle certain features better, but I would definitely lean toward the Euro/GFS until we see them change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 hour 39 is devastation lol Lets not get carried away here with devastation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 1/2"+ ice n/nw is legit but the nam is probably still wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 >.75" qpf youzer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 39 is impressive. Maybe not DC proper, but anywhere N and W. So many NAM runs to go. Immediate suburbs just N and W will likely be 30/31... DCA prob 32. By 42 we all go to rain FWIW.... even BWI/FDK/HGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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