ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 but it's low is also stronger and it's low level winds are a little stronger which would suggest that the cold air erode a little quicker than the previous run. Still for guys near FDK, it's not a disaster. Don't you know rule number 1 from the weenie handbook. Alway throw out 6z and 18z runs, not as much data is ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS warmer but this whole thread is a LOL. whether its colder or warmer...the max snow we get form this is maybe 1/2 inch. We got that in 3 minutes in Feb 2010 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 depends...mostly affects roads....it wouldnt be major in terms of power outages I dont think Usually you are right but with BGE and Pepco that can cause major outages sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS warmer but this whole thread is a LOL. whether its colder or warmer...the max snow we get form this is maybe 1/2 inch. We got that in 3 minutes in Feb 2010 storm 1/2" would almost double my seasonal total. and that took 2.5 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 1/2" would almost double my seasonal total. You should get that looked at, you may need an implant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 You should get that looked at, you may need an implant. i might ban you this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 but it's low is also stronger and it's low level winds are a little stronger which would suggest that the cold air erode a little quicker than the previous run. Still for guys near FDK, it's not a disaster. I hope it is cold at the surface....even if we go to sleet right away or start as sleet it will be a nice layer...This is DC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 i might ban you this evening If i get banned before BB and SNO i will be insulted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 If i get banned before BB and SNO i will be insulted. if the Pats beat the Ravens you will be humiliated take one for the team and deal with the insult! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 if the Pats beat the Ravens you will be humiliated take one for the team and deal with the insult! No i will not be humiliated at all, they have had a great year and i think they have a 50/50 chance of winning on Sunday. If they win look out in the sports zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 i dont ride any busses only the crappy metro maybe but there's a 99% chance not So youre saying we have a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 looks like a little snow on the gfs bobryan is not excited BobRyanABC7 Bob Ryan Latest hyperlocal microcast only brief period sleet/ZR late Friday night. CAD will not be very strong so risk of icing DC getting lower Bob ryan is never excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 18z runs not great.... onto the SREFs MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Somebody post the rgem eye candy. Color please . On phone don't have access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Somebody post the rgem eye candy. Color please . On phone don't have access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Bob ryan is never excited. He was excited feb 4 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 He was excited feb 4 2010 We know your not excited, you have not even posted the Jma once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 cool.. ill probably ban you i might ban you this evening What do I need to do to make this happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 is 1/4" of ice really that nasty unless you're driving? I've been through quite a few ice events. 1/4" is the low end of an ice storm warning, I believe. But that threshhold isn't too major. Hazardous driving conditions and widely scattered tree limb damage/ power outages. I had that twice in '08 and drove around the area taking pictures the same day. 0.5" I would consider major. Widespread travel problems/tree issues/ power outages. I think when you approach 0.75" you're getting into a crippling definition, and above 1.00" you get some devastation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 I've been through quite a few ice events. 1/4" is the low end of an ice storm warning, I believe. But that threshhold isn't too major. Hazardous driving conditions and widely scattered tree limb damage/ power outages. I had that twice in '08 and drove around the area taking pictures the same day. 0.5" I would consider major. Widespread travel problems/tree issues/ power outages. I think when you approach 0.75" your getting into a crippling definition, and above 1.00" you get some devastation. sounds about right. it was sort of a rhetorical question. i think it's probably somewhat dependent on location as some places might get a .5" ice event every year where others get one ever 10 years or whatnot. it seems ice storms are always a source of what appears to be false "fear" from people on weather boards etc. everyone's like "OMG ice is so horrible" but in a vast majority of cases it's no more than an inconvenience. i'd argue an event like last jan is significantly more impactful than most ice events. even a .25" event generally equates to significantly less ice on roads. sure, no one probably wants a 1" event where you start to talk about losing power for a week but it's also really pretty in its own way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I've been through quite a few ice events. 1/4" is the low end of an ice storm warning, I believe. But that threshhold isn't too major. Hazardous driving conditions and widely scattered tree limb damage/ power outages. I had that twice in '08 and drove around the area taking pictures the same day. 0.5" I would consider major. Widespread travel problems/tree issues/ power outages. I think when you approach 0.75" you're getting into a crippling definition, and above 1.00" you get some devastation. The last two ice storms that produced severe power outages were 1/14-15/99 (for NW suburbs) and 2/13-14/07 (for the SE suburbs). We've had freezing rain episodes since, even some 0.5" ice reports, but nothing to the extent of hundreds of thousands of power outages. Driving wasn't particularly difficult in either of those storms from the ice. If anything, it was the fallen tree branches that caused the most traffic hassles. We rarely get air temperatures cold enough with freezing rain such that the rain droplets actually freeze on roads. Usually, the roads remain pretty much wet or crunchy, not glazed over. Late January 1994 had one such storm where some side road surfaces themselves were glazed as temperatures were in the low 20's. Otherwise, it's the untreated, elevated surfaces that get any ice accumulation. Super Tuesday, 2008, was one example where very light freezing rain caused the traffic debacle on the Mixing Bowl ramps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Maps from the NAM per e wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM snowfall map also from e wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 sounds about right. it was sort of a rhetorical question. i think it's probably somewhat dependent on location as some places might get a .5" ice event every year where others get one ever 10 years or whatnot. it seems ice storms are always a source of what appears to be false "fear" from people on weather boards etc. everyone's like "OMG ice is so horrible" but in a vast majority of cases it's no more than an inconvenience. i'd argue an event like last jan is significantly more impactful than most ice events. even a .25" event generally equates to significantly less ice on roads. sure, no one probably wants a 1" event where you start to talk about losing power for a week but it's also really pretty in its own way... Freezing rain is my favorite kind of rain. I like how any amount of icing makes the world look. The frost has been great here this winter, but that's been it since the October snow. Its Nina climo to have these events, its the time of year, and I am rooting for moisture on Saturday morning. I think it will be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM snowfall map also from e wall It is very clipperesque to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Scince when does the RGEM go out past 48hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Scince when does the RGEM go out past 48hrs? Is sat morning past 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Through my weenie eyes, nam thru 18 looks better than 18z. NAM definitely better thru 26/27, take a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not much difference... but the moisture/QPF is southwest about 50-80 miles in the WI/IL/MN/IA area when you compare 00z at 21 hrs and 18z at 27 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Better moisture return/QPF values in the SE on the 00z than on the 18z by 27 hrs -- as in the .1 QPF contour is much larger and widespread than the 18z was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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