stormtracker Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 that would definitely be the Street you could do it and get away with it Not so much anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Bob ryans map Whoa......I'll take it. Isn't he usually pessimistic and bearish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 bob sure changed his tune from last night It's classic Bob. More often than not, he's right simply because of his conservative nature and DC ****ty climatology. Odds always favor the conservative forecaster. But he gets burned a lot doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's classic Bob. More often than not, he's right simply because of his conservative nature and DC ****ty climatology. Odds always favor the conservative forecaster. But he gets burned a lot doing that. im forecasting rain.. weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not so much anymore. other than dropping off my daughter at DCA 3-4 years ago and I never got out of my car, the last time I "stepped foot" in DC was 1982! maybe I'm living in the past, just maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Then GFS randomly warms up, not buying that, but alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Then GFS randomly warms up, not buying that, but alright. shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Whoa......I'll take it. Isn't he usually pessimistic and bearish? He's usually neutral in general IMO. Sometimes a little bearish with big events. My wife met him at a dinner some years back. He's actually pretty much an arrogant jerk from what she saw. Based on that, I always hope he busts huge in either direction. If anyone else has met him personally and my opinion is way off base, just let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 shocker Channel 4 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 shocker I'm not expecting anything huge around here, 1-3'' isn't extreme. Tell me you believe it warms up fast? That or instantweathermaps is lying to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 He's usually neutral in general IMO. Sometimes a little bearish with big events. My wife met him at a dinner some years back. He's actually pretty much an arrogant jerk from what she saw. Based on that, I always hope he busts huge in either direction. If anyone else has met him personally and my opinion is way off base, just let me know. i think he's about the best tv met in dc tho i honestly dont watch him or anyone else these days. pretty much everyone around here is an arrogant jerk so that's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Then GFS randomly warms up, not buying that, but alright. not so at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 not so at the surface yeah 850 warms up, sfc maybe a bit colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 yeah 850 warms up, sfc maybe a bit colder? more ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Channel 4 map looks a little sketchy.. rain does not cause accumulations like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 more ice? You would be correct, still 2''+ in Baltimore this run of snow, not bad. Getting chilly out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18Z GFS keep surface temps below 32 for the duration of the event here. With over 0.50" of QPF, that would be a major winter storm regardless of precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18Z GFS keep surface temps below 32 for the duration of the event here. With over 0.50" of QPF, that would be a major winter storm regardless of precip type. Same thing here Craig . on the 18z NAM and 18z GFS never mind, didnt refresh here, dumb ass me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Then GFS randomly warms up, not buying that, but alright. There is actually nothing random about it since the equations in the model are not stochastic. I'm not saying anything is right or wrong, just that the model isn't "random". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The consistency of the GFS snowfall maps has been amazing. Of course, they aren't right yet, but I wish I had saved those things over the past 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That precip breaking out in swva and east ky moving ne is interesting. Looks to be merging with the precip moving e-ese from the midwest. I guess that's just our storm exploding into the mega storm of 2011-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The consistency of the GFS snowfall maps has been amazing. Of course, they aren't right yet, but I wish I had saved those things over the past 36 hours. The gfs tries to imply DC north would be down for 2+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That precip breaking out in swva and east ky moving ne is interesting. Looks to be merging with the precip moving e-ese from the midwest. I guess that's just our storm exploding into the mega storm of 2011-2012 It's funny you should mention that. I was being a smartass with my "phasing" post earlier but it does look like the front edge is going to have some juice to work with. I was unimpressed with radar ealier. Snowing by 9pm? nah..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That precip breaking out in swva and east ky moving ne is interesting. Looks to be merging with the precip moving e-ese from the midwest. I guess that's just our storm exploding into the mega storm of 2011-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Lighten up, pro. Humor meter on zero today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Lighten up, pro. Humor meter on zero today? I don't detect scarcasm well.. My appolgies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Down to 24 near hagerstown and 32 all the way down to Orange. There could be alot of ice in the Hagerstown area when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I don't detect scarcasm well.. My appolgies. No problem, sir. Just a question though (hope I don't get the facepalm again ) but is it a good sign to see that precip break out with that movement? I would think that would add a little punch to the precip we develop later, but my "logical" thoughts sometimes aren't correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 No problem, sir. Just a question though (hope I don't get the facepalm again ) but is it a good sign to see that precip break out with that movement? I would think that would add a little punch to the precip we develop later, but my "logical" thoughts sometimes aren't correct. Well, everything is going on schedule. There is really two entities going on here, the first is a fast moving/ deep pacific clipper coming in from Chicago. The second is our low presure system with moisture coming from the gulf and piling up and causing the outbreak of precipitation along the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 No problem, sir. Just a question though (hope I don't get the facepalm again ) but is it a good sign to see that precip break out with that movement? I would think that would add a little punch to the precip we develop later, but my "logical" thoughts sometimes aren't correct. That is our precip for the most part, not the Chicago stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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