BTRWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Tighter snow gradient but higher amounts north of the city from LWX's latest snow accumulation map. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 still no mention of rain in my forecast - 100% freezing rain tomorrow. Tonight: A chance of snow and sleet between 10pm and 1am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Low around 27. East wind between 5 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.2 of an inch possible. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday: Freezing rain before 1pm. High near 35. East wind 11 to 13 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of around a 0.1 of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Tighter snow gradient but higher amounts north of the city from LWX's latest snow accumulation map. http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ LWX forecast..................................................................................................................................................................................curve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 I think it is a 1 in 3/4 year event potentially when you talk about ice/sleet....I'll do an assessment after and maybe compare to other events since I don't think many are as familiar with ice events...It is sometimes hard to compare....2/12/08 happened right before the evening rush so its impact was widespread and if not crippling, very high impact...thousands of accidents...shut down i-95 for a few hours.....-ra and 30 degrees onto a lot of untreated surfaces....but it changed to moderate/heavy rain and mid 30s everywhere by like midnight and was washed away quickly...80-90% of the QPF was rain...it was all timing....I'm not sure how you compare that to an event happening overnight and into a Saturday morning that is less QPF overall but probably higher percent frozen.... fair enough.. ice makes roads and sidewalks slippery--even a little if there is poor treatment. me and you are very close in our thoughts at this pt if not our choice of words.. there is no meme or whatever. there are certainly people who have commented in this thread that dont seem to get that .4" liquid falling at 28 degrees does not equal .4" of ice. if nws verifies isnt it pretty close to last years ice if also moer snow on the front end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Weenie statement (rule #48 or 49)..... Compare the NAM simulated to the real time radar and it looks like the NAM is lagging about 2-3 hrs behind. Maybe a mid to late evening 9-11 start for many south of B'more. Ok, that's it for me. I will post obs because I'm likely to change over the quickest as I am Prince William Cty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I think it is a 1 in 3/4 year event potentially when you talk about ice/sleet....I'll do an assessment after and maybe compare to other events since I don't think many are as familiar with ice events...It is sometimes hard to compare....2/12/08 happened right before the evening rush so its impact was widespread and if not crippling, very high impact...thousands of accidents...shut down i-95 for a few hours.....-ra and 30 degrees onto a lot of untreated surfaces....but it changed to moderate/heavy rain and mid 30s everywhere by like midnight and was washed away quickly...80-90% of the QPF was rain...it was all timing....I'm not sure how you compare that to an event happening overnight and into a Saturday morning that is less QPF overall but probably higher percent frozen.... ..well in the city, yes. It stayed freezing rain overnight for the western suburbs, even ones just outside the beltway (IAD didn't go above freezing until 10 am on the 13th). We had an Ice Storm Warning issued later in the evening on the 12th to replace the WWA. Most places in MoCo wast of the beltway got between 0.25 and 0.5" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 New Snow Map Gives Everyone DC and North 1+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 New Snow Map Gives Everyone 1+ Everyone? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Everyone? No everyone that matters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 everyone that matters... You mean Wes doesn't matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Everyone? No I am centered right between that .1 and 1, so i'm hoping for one more shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 You mean Wes doesn't matter? if he's not predicting a 12-24" snowstorm.. not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 New Snow Map Gives Everyone DC and North 1+ Interesting how the law of averages works. If that verifies, it seems to be a flip (or close enough) of last week's surprise snow for the Beltway. I know we only got about 12 flurries from that up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 probably a stretch but hey I mean something to smile at. way better than this...the 17z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's gon' snow. For 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's gon' snow. For 2 hours. Better than not at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 From what I understand, the RUC doesn't differentiate between snow and other frozen precip. So that prob just means .3 qpf of frozen variety for dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 From what I understand, the RUC doesn't differentiate between snow and other frozen precip. So that prob just means .3 qpf of frozen variety for dc. Mabye on that map it doesn't but on the BUFKIT files it does... So, as a whole the model definitly does do IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 From what I understand, the RUC doesn't differentiate between snow and other frozen precip. So that prob just means .3 qpf of frozen variety for dc. I thought it differentiated btwn snow and freezing rain? Snow and sleet are prob in that total snow accum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I thought it differentiated btwn snow and freezing rain? Snow and sleet are prob in that total snow accum That is the algorithm I think it goes by, the map I posted would indicate 3-4'' of snow/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 If DC gets 3-4 of snow-sleet ill walk down 14th naked at the height of freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 If DC gets 3-4 of snow-sleet ill walk down 14th naked at the height of freezing rain that would definitely be the Street you could do it and get away with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 that would definitely be the Street you could do it and get away with it 17th street would probably be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looking good out at ORD, where my buddy who flies is stuck and could be for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 17th street would probably be better You're right... I'll walk up to the Capitol steps... 3-4 ain't happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 You're right... I'll walk up to the Capitol steps... 3-4 ain't happening i sure hope not.. mainly because i dont want to hear that the ggem is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisse Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I am centered right between that .1 and 1, so i'm hoping for one more shift south. As someone 1 block north of the Wilson Bridge - so do I. That's one tight gradient there. It makes me nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Bob ryans map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 If DC gets 3-4 of snow-sleet ill walk down 14th naked at the height of freezing rain Ian will be there with his camera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Ian will be there with his camera and you will be begging for those pics lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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