yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 All of LWX under WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thanks. Have heard a lot of criticisms over the years on the Euro in the short range, but hadn't heard that it was pretty good on precip close in. Probably due to the lack of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 12z Euro is wetter and brings the snow line further south across the northern areas... DC and points south still fail. That's ok. Sleet covered in ice sticks around longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 6-12"...LWX will issue warnings on 1/31 Who looks at the NWS when you have HWPC? They should get the warnings out tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Everyone went to WWA.. watches canceled... wow, LWX sure pulled the trigger on that one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Everyone went to WWA.. watches canceled... lwx doesnt understand that iceapocalypse is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 lwx doesnt understand that iceapocalypse is coming devastation!!! Kinda surprised though that the far NW corner of LWX didn't go WSW... guess more sleet/snow than ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 no, but i'd give it higher odds than might be suggested by consensus. the euro is my daddy. If I am being IMBY it isnt that far out of line with the other guidance with the 1st slug tonight and that is all I really care about here since after that is over I will go to sleep and probably wake up to 34 and drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 devastation!!! Kinda surprised though that the far NW corner of LWX didn't go WSW... guess more sleet/snow than ice they'll probably wait till it's an hour from finishing to hoist the warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 devastation!!! Kinda surprised though that the far NW corner of LWX didn't go WSW... guess more sleet/snow than ice Im very surprised, theyll catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 the Euro sucks.... until its right tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 i just want the ground to be white BINGO! -- I'm with you all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 12z Euro is wetter and brings the snow line further south across the northern areas... DC and points south still fail. do you have thermal profiles or 3 hr increments?...because at 6z the 850 mb 0 contour is in the same spot as the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 If I am being IMBY it isnt that far out of line with the other guidance with the 1st slug tonight and that is all I really care about here since after that is over I will go to sleep and probably wake up to 34 and drizzle yeah we need to cash in on that. im being totally imby on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 WWA's have been posted for all west of Bay in MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 no, but i'd give it higher odds than might be suggested by consensus. the euro is my daddy. The Rgem is my Mother so we will see which parent likes us better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Been a while since I looked at the hires wrfs NMM has about 0.25" for DCA through 12z, and a storm total maybe 0.6" or 0.7". ARW cuts those numbers by maybe 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 still sticking with the wet storm trend. eff the euro and its accuracy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 still sticking with the wet storm trend. eff the euro and its accuracy The 0z Euro run tonight will be telling. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 12z Euro is wetter and brings the snow line further south across the northern areas... DC and points south still fail. I think this is the key point. It brings the snow much more into northern Va and Md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Frederick is failing already....up to 29 with blue skies and sun. "up to 29". That's nothing...I'm in Ballenger where the temp is up to almost 35F. Not sure why people keep saying temps are falling. Mine has gone up all day. My backyard: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=21703&sp=KMDFREDE26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 why? at that time you would look at the short range models, and nowcast using available data. the Euro isn't for a storm right over your head. I take it you cant sense sarcasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I think this is the key point. It brings the snow much more into northern Va and Md. Approx how far south does it come?? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Approx how far south does it come?? Thanks Only the Mason Dixon line if NoVa is included Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 "up to 29". That's nothing...I'm in Ballenger where the temp is up to almost 35F. Not sure why people keep saying temps are falling. Mine has gone up all day. My backyard: http://www.wundergro...3&sp=KMDFREDE26 I was 32.1 as of 5 mins ago. If it can...it will find a way to only be rain here. A look at real snow via Paradise Ranger Station. Some 7' of snow the past 3-4 days and another 5-7' on the way up there in the coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 why? at that time you would look at the short range models, and nowcast using available data. the Euro isn't for a storm right over your head. I was being sarcastic...and no, I am not dumb. But thanks for the insult, anyway. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Following a southern trend of the models and recent temperature verifications compared to earlier forecasts, I have come up with this for my final forecast: The pink contour indicates where 0.1-0.25+ inches of accumulating sleet and freezing rain is possible. Some sleet will mix into the areas receiving over an inch of snow, and some freezing rain is also possible in the 1-2 inch snow contour. Start time of the event was expanded earlier to better account for the precipitation in the western edge of the map. ----- Adding the original map below for comparison and to have it in this thread for archival purposes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Following a southern trend of the models and recent temperature verifications compared to earlier forecasts, I have come up with this for my final forecast: The pink contour indicates where 0.1-0.25+ inches of accumulating sleet and freezing rain is possible. Some sleet will mix into the areas receiving over an inch of snow, and some freezing rain is also possible in these areas. Start time of the event was expanded earlier to better account for the precipitation in the western edge of the map. ----- Adding the original map below for comparison and to have it in this thread for archival purposes... Nice work Ellinwood. I'm curious...what software do you use for the maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nice work Ellinwood. I'm curious...what software do you use for the maps? Any photoshop program will work... I use Adobe Photoshop CS4. I need to get a new map with cities and interstates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hoping you are right, Mark. 1 - 2 inches would get me off of the "0" I am at for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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