BTRWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The CAD appears to be stronger early on, but so does the waa west of the apps on the 18Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 thread ftw i loled hard earlier with people going with nam precip. Way to go, Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Way to go, Ian. the nam sucks.. it's probably still not right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Low plows right into W PA... CAD leaves except for NW portion of LWX CWA... little precip east of the BR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 common guys 18z NAM is always the driest run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 +5°C 850 by 12z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Still borderline 0.25" here, that looks to be mostly all freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 by 15z... everyone is enjoying rain... nice cold rain in MD as 0c 2m line has retreated north of M/D line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Preliminary SNOWFALL calls. Very tough forecast as described below but here they are, if you want another town/city just ask, final call will be tomorrow Mid-day. BWI-0.5" DC-coating, Frederick to Westminster-Hereford-Bel Air: 1.5". Southern PA-2-3". Confidence in this is low as of now due to uncertainty of cold air damming and the possibility of more mixing with mid atmopshere layers. Again in most areas there will be some ice after the initial snow and then some light rain or drizzle for some areas too. That was my call on my weather page... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I have a hard time believing the NAM surface temps erode that quickly.....the low is better organized though That might be why... the low is better organized and a lil stronger which warms us up a bit faster... though it does seem to keep alot of the precip in PA and the NW region of the LWX CWA until it warms up enough to give us rain... we reach low 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Center of the low looks to be about 150 miles NE of the 12z run by 12z Sat. Even so, it looks even more like a significant ice event for some of the area. This run has it moving fast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ill take Forky's word for it: mapgirl : (19 January 2012 - 03:33 PM) i just had to ask forkyfork : (19 January 2012 - 03:33 PM) so in this case i'm being serious forkyfork : (19 January 2012 - 03:33 PM) it's going against the euro/gfs/ggem/ukmet mapgirl : (19 January 2012 - 03:32 PM) weenie phrase, or you serious? forkyfork : (19 January 2012 - 03:30 PM) when the nam differs from the other models, it's usually wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 That might be why... the low is better organized and a lil stronger which warms us up a bit faster... though it does seem to keep alot of the precip in PA and the NW region of the LWX CWA until it warms up enough to give us rain... we reach low 40s coastalwx alluded to it earlier.. most of the good precip will be north of the low. the vort for this thing sucks. im not sure how much it matters tho overall. we're not likely to get a lot of precip either way. and the nam is jumpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I have a hard time believing the NAM surface temps erode that quickly.....the low is better organized though DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 [Randy]18z GFS will be telling[/Randy] We shall see if it nudges the way of the NAM... would be nice if it remained with its 12z run but slightly cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This crew turns on the NAM faster than the senators in Caesars chamber.... damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 DCA The other sounding near Sterling looks a little more promissing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 slow in here all the sudden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Change the sub-title to something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 slow in here all the sudden Ian hit the nail on the head when he said this subforum goes from suicide to weenie with each model and run. *headdesk* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ian hit the nail on the head when he said this subforum goes from suicide to weenie with each model and run. *headdesk* Welcome to the MA subforum! Where we live and die by each model run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 nothing's really changed.. the ggem is not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 nothing's really changed.. the ggem is not going to happen. I thought we were on the GFS bus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 VDOT has been laying the brine spray like nuts today. They know something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 nothing's really changed.. the ggem is not going to happen. Blasphemy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 nothing's really changed.. the ggem is not going to happen. What about the rgem will that happen?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 I thought we were on the GFS bus? i dont ride any busses only the crappy metro What about the rgem will that happen?. maybe but there's a 99% chance not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 VDOT has been laying the brine spray like nuts today. They know something. They know they need to use up their winter road supplies in order to justify the budget to buy the same amount next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Forecast for 22207 - Arlington Afternoon Slight Chc Snow Hi 43 °F Tonight Slight Chc Snow Lo 28 °F Friday Partly Sunny Hi 40 °F Friday Night Wintry Mix Lo 30 °F Saturday FzgRn Likely Hi 40 °F Saturday Night Slight Chc Rain Lo 31 °F Sunday Chance Rain Hi 39 °F Sunday Night Chance Showers Lo 39 °F Monday Chance Showers Hi 52 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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