Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 If I am being IMBY it isnt that far out of line with the other guidance with the 1st slug tonight and that is all I really care about here since after that is over I will go to sleep and probably wake up to 34 and drizzle yeah we need to cash in on that. im being totally imby on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 WWA's have been posted for all west of Bay in MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 no, but i'd give it higher odds than might be suggested by consensus. the euro is my daddy. The Rgem is my Mother so we will see which parent likes us better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Been a while since I looked at the hires wrfs NMM has about 0.25" for DCA through 12z, and a storm total maybe 0.6" or 0.7". ARW cuts those numbers by maybe 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 still sticking with the wet storm trend. eff the euro and its accuracy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 still sticking with the wet storm trend. eff the euro and its accuracy The 0z Euro run tonight will be telling. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 12z Euro is wetter and brings the snow line further south across the northern areas... DC and points south still fail. I think this is the key point. It brings the snow much more into northern Va and Md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Frederick is failing already....up to 29 with blue skies and sun. "up to 29". That's nothing...I'm in Ballenger where the temp is up to almost 35F. Not sure why people keep saying temps are falling. Mine has gone up all day. My backyard: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=21703&sp=KMDFREDE26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 why? at that time you would look at the short range models, and nowcast using available data. the Euro isn't for a storm right over your head. I take it you cant sense sarcasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I think this is the key point. It brings the snow much more into northern Va and Md. Approx how far south does it come?? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Approx how far south does it come?? Thanks Only the Mason Dixon line if NoVa is included Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 "up to 29". That's nothing...I'm in Ballenger where the temp is up to almost 35F. Not sure why people keep saying temps are falling. Mine has gone up all day. My backyard: http://www.wundergro...3&sp=KMDFREDE26 I was 32.1 as of 5 mins ago. If it can...it will find a way to only be rain here. A look at real snow via Paradise Ranger Station. Some 7' of snow the past 3-4 days and another 5-7' on the way up there in the coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 why? at that time you would look at the short range models, and nowcast using available data. the Euro isn't for a storm right over your head. I was being sarcastic...and no, I am not dumb. But thanks for the insult, anyway. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Following a southern trend of the models and recent temperature verifications compared to earlier forecasts, I have come up with this for my final forecast: The pink contour indicates where 0.1-0.25+ inches of accumulating sleet and freezing rain is possible. Some sleet will mix into the areas receiving over an inch of snow, and some freezing rain is also possible in the 1-2 inch snow contour. Start time of the event was expanded earlier to better account for the precipitation in the western edge of the map. ----- Adding the original map below for comparison and to have it in this thread for archival purposes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Following a southern trend of the models and recent temperature verifications compared to earlier forecasts, I have come up with this for my final forecast: The pink contour indicates where 0.1-0.25+ inches of accumulating sleet and freezing rain is possible. Some sleet will mix into the areas receiving over an inch of snow, and some freezing rain is also possible in these areas. Start time of the event was expanded earlier to better account for the precipitation in the western edge of the map. ----- Adding the original map below for comparison and to have it in this thread for archival purposes... Nice work Ellinwood. I'm curious...what software do you use for the maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nice work Ellinwood. I'm curious...what software do you use for the maps? Any photoshop program will work... I use Adobe Photoshop CS4. I need to get a new map with cities and interstates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hoping you are right, Mark. 1 - 2 inches would get me off of the "0" I am at for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm not sure whether this was posted or not but LWX has posted advisories for the entire area, even where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hoping you are right, Mark. 1 - 2 inches would get me off of the "0" I am at for the winter. His 2-4 not far from us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 FWIW, a peek at the last few hours of the 17z RUC has the 0c 850 line crossing DCA at 09z/10z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I apologize. I got you confused with someone else--I remember who you are now and you are definitely not dumb. We're good. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The 12z 4km WRF-NMM has been pretty spot-on with timing the precip. onset with this event... shows the precip. starting just after 11pm in DC/MoCo and around midnight in Baltimore. Link to the 12z model page: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 all this positive stuff, and then this oh, how some things never change time sensative http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F20%2F2012+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=700_rh_ht&pdesc=&model=RUC&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 all this positive stuff, and then this oh, how some things never change time sensative http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M What about it? Doesn't look any different from the other stuff I've looked at. There will be a little QPF wasted at the onset of precip. to moisten the column, but it's hardly a dent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 all this positive stuff, and then this oh, how some things never change time sensative http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M ehh not bad, then some UVV's, don't see a huge problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 FWIW, a peek at the last few hours of the 17z RUC has the 0c 850 line crossing DCA at 09z/10z 08z for the 18z, but we are looking at RUC thermal profiles here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 hrrrrumph. after all your negativity, you still get an advisory. I didn't thinnk my CWG piece yesterday was negative. except for places east of the city. MY only negative post was I thought the NAM was too wet and that the Euro precip was more likely to be correct than the canadian snow which still looks somewhat overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 "up to 29". That's nothing...I'm in Ballenger where the temp is up to almost 35F. Not sure why people keep saying temps are falling. Mine has gone up all day. My backyard: http://www.wundergro...3&sp=KMDFREDE26 My station had been at 29.3 all day, it has now gone up in just the last hour to 32.9. Going off of your location on the map I am about 2 miles to your S. BTW I use your station for my WxUnderground page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 08z for the 18z, but we are looking at RUC thermal profiles here. and at 850 mb they are almost always too warm. They had us above freezing during the Feb 6th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 My station had been at 29.3 all day, it has now gone up in just the last hour to 32.9. Going off of your location on the map I am about 2 miles to your S. BTW I use your station for my WxUnderground page. I'm back down to 30.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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