yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Interestingly.. it keeps the 850 0c line SOUTH of us and is nearly over us by 12z SAT (once again, 00z run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 im not.. i guess you missed the conversation with gymengineer last night. if someone accretes .5 it's pretty legit for sure but people are still not that rational with ice. My main point looking at actual precip data is that it was definitely not total precip=ice accrual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NEW 12z SUNY MM5 run has 0c 850 line crossing through DCA are by 09z -- http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2012012012/images_d1/850t.21.0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 My main point looking at actual precip data is that it was definitely not total precip=ice accrual. right.. but even being kind and assuming 90% of it does it's still not going to cause a giant catastrophe at .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 right.. but even being kind and assuming 90% of it does it's still not going to cause a giant catastrophe at .5" Now I will sit back and watch while your residence and your residence only loses power for 52 weeks Just stepped out - chilly for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Now I will sit back and watch while your residence and your residence only loses power for 52 weeks Just stepped out - chilly for sure! my dad's coming into town -- he thinks he's going to get to spend time at his place in gaithersburg.. i should not let him know that all the trees are going to fall and block his route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Updated LWX Discussion TONIGHT...SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARGIN OF THE CWA FROM THE TN VLY. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR WEDGED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAKING FOR A WINTRY PRECIP EVENT. DEEP CONVERGENCE OF THE FAST-MOVING SFC TROUGH AND GULF PLUME WILL BRING MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY CLOSE...WITH THE NAM BEING COLDER THROUGH THE NIGHT. BOTH INDICATE SNOW BRIEFLY AT THE ONSET...CHANGING OVER TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN AS THE LOW TO MID LEVELS EXPERIENCE WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE SFC GETS AN ONSHORE FLOW OF COLD AIR. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH RESPECT TO COLD AIR...SO SNOW IS MORE LIKELY ALONG THE MASON- DIXON LINE...WITH A SWATH OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTH FROM THERE DOWN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND EAST ACROSS THE DC METRO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 11am DCA: 34/8 IAD: 29/3 BWI: 30/7 MRB: 25/7 HGR: 22/6 PIT: 16/7 Morgantown: 16/8 Columbus: 15/7 ORD: 14/2 Detroit: 14/1 CLE: 15/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 VDOT pre storm treatment trucks just drove by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 shouldnt you know these things if running a weather corporation? On my phone and hard to see since i just glanced, but i was right it is quite chilly Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaSnow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Updated LWX Discussion TONIGHT...SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARGIN OF THE CWA FROM THE TN VLY. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR WEDGED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAKING FOR A WINTRY PRECIP EVENT. DEEP CONVERGENCE OF THE FAST-MOVING SFC TROUGH AND GULF PLUME WILL BRING MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY CLOSE...WITH THE NAM BEING COLDER THROUGH THE NIGHT. BOTH INDICATE SNOW BRIEFLY AT THE ONSET...CHANGING OVER TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN AS THE LOW TO MID LEVELS EXPERIENCE WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE SFC GETS AN ONSHORE FLOW OF COLD AIR. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH RESPECT TO COLD AIR...SO SNOW IS MORE LIKELY ALONG THE MASON- DIXON LINE...WITH A SWATH OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTH FROM THERE DOWN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND EAST ACROSS THE DC METRO. That doesn't seem any different from what was posted early this a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Updated LWX Discussion TONIGHT...SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARGIN OF THE CWA FROM THE TN VLY. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR WEDGED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAKING FOR A WINTRY PRECIP EVENT. DEEP CONVERGENCE OF THE FAST-MOVING SFC TROUGH AND GULF PLUME WILL BRING MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY CLOSE...WITH THE NAM BEING COLDER THROUGH THE NIGHT. BOTH INDICATE SNOW BRIEFLY AT THE ONSET...CHANGING OVER TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN AS THE LOW TO MID LEVELS EXPERIENCE WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE SFC GETS AN ONSHORE FLOW OF COLD AIR. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH RESPECT TO COLD AIR...SO SNOW IS MORE LIKELY ALONG THE MASON- DIXON LINE...WITH A SWATH OF FREEZING RAIN SOUTH FROM THERE DOWN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND EAST ACROSS THE DC METRO. Looking great for up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 After we get dry out on Sunday, what's that plume of Moisture ~24 hours after the icyness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 right.. but even being kind and assuming 90% of it does it's still not going to cause a giant catastrophe at .5" you have to remember where we live and what the standard deviation is for weather events from a hobbyist standpoint...I am not a Transportation worker...I have no idea what the conditions of the major and minor arteries will be nor do I really care....I probably shouldn't have used the word annhilated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That doesn't seem any different from what was posted early this a.m. It is, I made sure to highlight the changed discussion part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looking great for up your way. Same here, looks like fun in the a.m. DEVASTATION EN ROUTE 26* here now and OVC skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Has Fauquier closed for next week yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 you have to remember where we live and what the standard deviation is for weather events from a hobbyist standpoint...I am not a Transportation worker...I have no idea what the conditions of the major and minor arteries will be nor do I really care....I probably shouldn't have used the word annhilated... i know where we live.. been here a long while now. not a question of roadways.. ice is ice, people can't drive on it wherever it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 i know where we live.. been here a long while now. not a question of roadways.. ice is ice, people can't drive on it wherever it is. This is the same city where an inch of snow caused a 30 mile back up on the Beltway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 This is the same city where an inch of snow caused a 30 mile back up on the Beltway... thanks yoda.. i just got here last week and know nothing about weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I have a good feeling...with most area temperatures slowly falling we are only fortifying the dam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 thanks yoda.. i just got here last week and know nothing about weather. - Oh weather folk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 thanks yoda.. i just got here last week and know nothing about weather. I knew CWG making GQ magazine wasn't because of your inputs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 thanks yoda.. i just got here last week and know nothing about weather. Your welcome Ian... I am here to help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 i know where we live.. been here a long while now. not a question of roadways.. ice is ice, people can't drive on it wherever it is. I know...I'm just more interested in the weenie effects than say if the power infrastructure is sufficient to withstand the ice accretion...coating sidewalks, trees etc is pretty cool even if there arent felled trees crashing into power lines and roofs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 FWIW.....RUC is all snow for DC metro with the 1st wave.....starts between 11-12...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 I know...I'm just more interested in the weenie effects than say if the power infrastructure is sufficient to withstand the ice accretion...coating sidewalks, trees etc is pretty cool even if there arent felled trees crashing into power lines and roofs yeah, makes sense. i guess i shouldnt care but sometimes hyperbole is very strong here. it's like the ji thing.. if it's just ji it's funny but if it's everyone the forum sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 LWX is really waiting until the last cycle to issue headlines I guess. Pretty good case for an advisory at least most places north and west of the cities. Even in the cities. A light glaze is enough for an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 yeah, makes sense. i guess i shouldnt care but sometimes hyperbole is very strong here. it's like the ji thing.. if it's just ji it's funny but if it's everyone the forum sucks. ha...true....I do think this has the potential to be a 1 in 5 year event for parts of the CWA but it may not come to frution.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 yeah, makes sense. i guess i shouldnt care but sometimes hyperbole is very strong here. it's like the ji thing.. if it's just ji it's funny but if it's everyone the forum sucks. It's spreading to the general public as well. This is not directly connected but I feel as though naming storms like snowmageddon and such just makes the general public weird about things. Ever since that storm everyone is like ICEMAGEDDON, SNOWMAGEDDON, OMG even if it's not a huge deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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