TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It did look that way early... the 850 line was farther south by 30-50 miles early in the run Not wishing, literally trusting nam with temps only becase of resolution and usual underestimation of cad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 thats good I guess since the GFS annihiates Frederick and Hagerstown The GFS is not as deep with the CAD but it doesn't do some dramatic warmup either...the expected places stay below freezing all day even places like Rockville are below freezing at 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah, surface cold this run id say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 even places like Rockville are below freezing at 21z We might do slightly better than we think. I mean, it's not just a weenie fantasy that this airmass is colder than forecasted (so far). An hour of moderate snow could get us to 3/4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 thats good I guess since the GFS annihiates Frederick and Hagerstown The GFS is not as deep with the CAD but it doesn't do some dramatic warmup either...the expected places stay below freezing all day Do you think the GFS is close to being right? Or do you think NAM might have the CAD progged a bit more accurately. Maybe somewhere between the two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Perhaps 1-2" SNPL before some ice then rain? maybe....will have to watch radar and hpe we dont get donut holed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 even places like Rockville are below freezing at 21z yeah, it looks like the lower levels stay pretty chilly despite the overrunning warmth being a bit beefier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's trying hard to get as warm as possible here now....26 and the sun is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 We might do slightly better than we think. I mean, it's not just a weenie fantasy that this airmass is colder than forecasted (so far). An hour of moderate snow could get us to 3/4"? yes..assuming it happens and assuming we dont change to sleet in the 1st 17 seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's trying hard to get as warm as possible here now....26 and the sun is out. there is a cloud line to my north moving south I think it has something to do with the arctic air we want to be on the north side as far as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Do we trust globals over mesoscale models on a CAD scenario, being 12hrs out? I don't know if I trust the GFS eroding the wedge like that, personal bias aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 We might do slightly better than we think. I mean, it's not just a weenie fantasy that this airmass is colder than forecasted (so far). An hour of moderate snow could get us to 3/4"? I think so, always have CAD underestimation, trust me this is no different than any other cad event, plus temps now much colder than i thought was originally forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 thats good I guess since the GFS annihiates Frederick and Hagerstown The GFS is not as deep with the CAD but it doesn't do some dramatic warmup either...the expected places stay below freezing all day annihilation seems a little strong... how much qpf total? .6ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 yeah, it looks like the lower levels stay pretty chilly despite the overrunning warmth being a bit beefier the entire region is below 32 at 0z tomorrow....this warmup to the upper 30s seems pretty unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 there is a cloud line to my north moving south I think it has something to do with the arctic air we want to be on the north side as far as possible http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 annihilation seems a little strong... how much qpf total? .6ish? well compared to what we have so far on the season this would qualify as annihilation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 we want to see Chicago bust low, with the heaviest staying to its south we'll know how that turns out by mid afternoon today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 annihilation seems a little strong... how much qpf total? .6ish? yes....i guess 0.6 to 0.7....and never close to going above freezing...maybe I should choose my words better but you have to remember where we live and not use things that you experienced in NW CT as a benchmark.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 the entire region is below 32 at 0z tomorrow....this warmup to the upper 30s seems pretty unlikely Trying to keep my bias subdued, I feel the same way. GFS warmed me up to like 42 degrees in the 1/17/11 CAD event while it never went above 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 we had a CAD event earlier this week? pssst, we are now in 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 yes....i guess 0.6 to 0.7....and never close to going above freezing...maybe I should choose my words better but you have to remember where we live and not use things that you experienced in NW CT as a benchmark.... im not.. i guess you missed the conversation with gymengineer last night. if someone accretes .5 it's pretty legit for sure but people are still not that rational with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 we had a CAD event earlier this week? He got the edit in before you could reply it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Trying to keep my bias subdued, I feel the same way. GFS warmed me up to like 42 degrees in the 1/17/11 CAD event while it never went above 35. third that, was forecasted for 39 and got 34.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 we had a CAD event earlier this week? It's 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This is the SUNY MM5... note it is from 00z at is 925 mb temp (40m above surface) at 12z SAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It's 2012 which is what you wrote first, hence her reply. Your edit made it in there before her reply was posted. Not worth debating over. move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This is the SUNY MM5... note it is from 00z at is 925 mb temp (40m above surface) at 12z SAT Correct me if im wrong, but looks cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 which is what you wrote first, hence her reply. Your edit made it in there before her reply was posted. Not worth debating over. move on. I didn't edit anything, no ones debating it but you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Correct me if im wrong, but looks cold... Nope looks like a massive torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Correct me if im wrong, but looks cold... shouldnt you know these things if running a weather corporation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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